FiveThirtyEight is out with its new model for the 2024 US House of Representatives elections. Overall:
“Right now, Democrats are favored to control the House in 495 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the election could go, while Republicans are favored to control the House in 506 of our simulations.”
Pretty much even money – “could go either way,” according to FiveThirtyEight.
What about here in Virginia specifically? See below for the 11 districts:
- VA01: 93% chance incumbent Rep. Rob. Wittman (R) defeats Democratic nominee Leslie Mehta
- VA02: 75% chance incumbent Rep. Jen Kiggans (R) defeats Democratic nominee Missy Cotter Smasal.
- VA03: 99%+ chance that incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott (D) defeats Republican nominee John Sitka, III
- VA04: 99%+ chance that incumbent Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D) defeats Republican nominee Bill Moher
- VA05: 90% chance that Republican nominee John McGuire defeats Democratic nominee Gloria Witt
- VA06: 99%+ chance that incumbent Rep. Ben Cline (R) defeats Democratic nominee Ken Mitchell
- VA07: 77% chance that Democratic nominee Eugene Vindman defeats Republican nominee Derrick Anderson
- VA08: 99%+ chance that incumbent Rep. Don Beyer (D) defeats Republican nominee Jerry Torres
- VA09: 99%+ chance that incumbent Rep. Morgan Griffith (R) defeats Democratic nominee Karen Baker
- VA10: 95% chance that Democratic nominee Suhas Subramanyam defeats Republican nominee Mike Clancy
- VA11: 99%+ chance that incumbent Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) defeats Republican nominee Mike Van Meter
So the key, competitive districts are really just two: VA02 (go Missy Cotter Smasal!) and VA07 (ditto to Eugene Vindman, who is solidly favored – “Likely D”!), while the other nine districts are all 90% or more likely to stay with the party that holds the district currently. It’s too bad, because there are several Republican incumbents (e.g., the atrocious Ben Cline) and nominees (e.g., insurrectionist John McGuire) who RICHLY deserve to lose…but probably won’t, simply because of their districts’ “lean” and the unwillingness of voters there to realize that Republicans are BADLY HURTING THEM (and the country). Ugh.
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