UVA’s Center for Politics/Sabato’s Crystal Ball is out with its first US House ratings of the 2026 cycle – see below for highlights. The bottom line is this:
“Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so. Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history. Our initial House ratings reflect a small House map, with Democrats narrowly ahead 209-207 in the seats that at least lean to one party or the other, with 19 Toss-ups…Democrats became favorites to flip the House as soon as Trump won, and what has happened since then has not really changed that assessment.”
Specifically wiith regard to Virginia, as Sam Shirazi points out:
“VA-2 Tossup, VA-7 Lean Dem, VA-1 Likely GOP, VA-10 Likely Dem; Long way to go until November 2026; Imagine Dems will be going more on the offense; If they flip VA-2, likely they will win House majority; Flipping VA-1 would be blue wave.”
Of course, a TON can – and likely WILL – change between now and the fall of 2026. Also, in the back of my mind is the concern that the Trump administration could mess with elections themselves, whether by working to restrict the right to vote, dismantling election security networks, or god-knows-what else. Plus, who knows what shape the economy, or Trump’s approval rating, will look like come the fall of 2026. So in a way, it’s silly to try to make forecasts at all. But people are going to do that, and the “Crystal Ball” folks do know their stuff, so this is as good a baseline as any to work from in terms of which districts to focus on, where to put our energies and money, etc.
One last thought: if Democratic “overperformance” continues as we saw in Florida and Wisconsin recently, we’re talking about putting a lot more Republican-held districts (e.g., maybe even VA05?) into play. The question is, what will the electorate look like in the fall of 2026, which party’s “base” will be most fired up (ergo, more likely to show up to vote), etc. For now, we can only speculate.
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