Virginia Mid-Year Fundraising Numbers: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

With mid-year Virginia candidates’ fundraising numbers now in the books, it’s time to look at the good, the bad and the ugly…from a Democratic perspective.

THE GOOD (or EXCELLENT)

• Adding up total money raised from 4/1 to 6/30 for the major “Leadership PACs” listed on VPAP, Democrats outraised Republicans by more than a 2:1 margin – $831k to $406k. That’s very good news…if you’re on the “blue team,” that is. 🙂
• Adding up total money raised from 4/1 to 6/30 by political party/caucus committees, it’s even better for Democrats, who outraised Republicans by a huge $2.6 million-$1.0 million margin. Wow!
• Gov. Northam’s “The Way Ahead” PAC appears to be back in business, raising $309,707 from 4/1 to 6/30, and with nearly $1 million cash on hand.
• Mark Herring’s “One Commonwealth” PAC also raised decent money ($151k) from 4/1 to 6/30
• House Democratic Leader Del. Eileen Filler-Corn’s “Energized for Change” PAC raised $147k from 4/1 to 6/30.
• Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy’s “Virginia for Everyone” PAC raised $138k from 4/1 to 6/30.
• The Democratic Party of Virginia ($690k), House Democratic Caucus ($806k), Senate Dem Caucus ($660k) and joint House-Senate Dem Caucus ($407k) all raised a ton of money from 4/1 to 6/30.
• Great job by SD7 Dem nominee Cheryl Turpin, who raised 3x the amount of money as her Republican opponent ($127k to $44k) in June, and who has 3x as much “cash on hand” ($120k to $40k). That’s why Chaz Nuttycombe moved this district’s rating from “Tilt D” to “Lean D.” Nice.
• Also, great job by SD8 Dem nominee Missy Cotter Smasal, who outraised her anti-Muslim Republican opponent, Bill “Rub Me Lamp” DeSteph by a $102k-$88k margin, and who has basically closed the “cash-on-hand” gap with DeSteph in this 50% Northam district.
• SD10 Dem nominee Ghazala Hashmi is rockin’ it, outraising her Republican opponent, Glen Sturtevant, by a significant margin ($183k-$114k). Keep it up!
• SD11 Dem nominee Amanda Pohl (as I call her, the “Good Amanda”) outraised her far-right, wackadoodle opponent Sen. Amanda Chase (the “Bad Amanda”) by a nearly 2:1 margin ($41k-$23k). Go Good Amanda! 🙂
• SD12 Dem nominee Debra Rodman raised slightly more ($147k-$144k) than her Republican opponent, Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant. This one’s going to be a barnburner in a 52% Northam district, but definitely winnable for the “blue team.” Go Debra Rodman!
• SD13 Dem nominee John Bell has nearly 3x the cash-on-hand ($240k-$89k) as his far-right Republican opponent, Geary Higgins. One note of fairly mild concern: Higgins basically tied Bell in fundraising during June. This is a must-win district for the Dems, by the way…
• SD17 Dem nominee Amy Laufer seriously kicked butt in June, outraising her Republican opponent Sen. Bryce Reeves by a $158k-$44k margin, and with nearly as much cash-on-hand in this 50% Gillespie district.
• Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy (D-HD02) outraised her Republican opponent, Heather Mitchell, by an enormous margin ($113k-$1.3k), and has a massive amount more money than Mitchell ($182k-$12k). Nice!
• Del. Chris Hurst (D-HD12) outraised his Republican opponent, Forrest Hite, by a huge margin ($54k-$2k), and has massively more cash-on-hand ($196k-$8.5k) in this 53% Northam district.
• HD20 Dem nominee Jennifer Lewis outraised her Republican opponent, John Avoli, by a nearly 4:1 margin and has a $19.7k-$2.3k cash-on-hand advantage in this tough, 57% Gillespie district.
• Del. Kelly Fowler (D-HD21) outraised her Republican opponent, Shannon Kane, by a nearly 4:1 margin ($43k-$12k) and has an $82k-$55k cash-on-hand advantage in this 56% Northam district.
• HD27 Dem nominee Larry Barnett outraised his opponent, Del. Roxann Robinson, by a $71k-$39k margin, and has slightly more cash-on-hand ($170k-$166k) than Robinson in this 51% Northam district. Do I smell Dem pickup? Go Larry Barnett!
• HD28 Dem nominee Joshua Cole has a massive cash-on-hand advantage ($158k-$7k) over his far-right Republican opponent, Paul Milde, in this 51% Northam district. Milde did raise a bit more money than Cole in June, but he’s going to have to really crank it up to ever catch Cole.
• Del. Elizabeth Guzman (D-HD31) has a Republican opponent (DJ Jordan) who can definitely raise money, but Guzman is more than holding her own. In June, Guzman outraised Jordan $48k-$41k, and she’s got a significant cash-on-hand advantage ($185k-$134k) in this 56% Northam district.
• HD33 Dem nominee Mavis Taintor outraised her far-right Republican opponent, Del. Dave LaRock, by nearly 2:1 ($35k-$19k) and has far more cash-on-hand ($61k-$17k) in this 54% Gillespie district.
• HD40 Dem nominee Dan Helmer outraised his Republican opponent, Del. Tim Hugo, by a $104k-$71k margin. Helmer has a lot of cash-on-hand ($286k), although he still has a ways to go to catch Hugo, who has $403k. This is a 55% Northam district, by the way, so Helmer definitely can win this race – let’s all help him do so!
• Del. Hala Ayala (D-HD51) outraised her Republican opponent, former Del. Rich Anderson, by a hefty $61k-$23k margin, and has more cash-on-hand than Anderson in this 55% Northam district.
• HD66 Dem nominee Sheila Bynum-Coleman outraised Speaker Kirk Cox by an $87k-$77k margin, although she still trails Cox $448k-$131k in this 52% Northam district.
• Del. Dawn Adams (D-HD68) has around 6x the cash-on-hand ($174k-$28k) of her Republican opponent, Garrison Coward, in this 56% Northam district.
• Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D-HD72) outraised his Republican opponent, GayDonna Vandergriff, by a $46k-$28k margin, and has far more cash-on-hand ($141k-$60k) in this 54% Northam district.
• Very impressive showing by HD73 Dem nominee Rodney Willett, who outraised his Republican opponent, Mary Margaret Kastelberg, by an $89k-$35k margin, and who has far more cash-on-hand ($151k-$65k) in this 53% Northam district. Go Rodney Willett!
• Also very impressive showing by HD83 Dem nominee Nancy Guy, who outraised her Republican opponent, Del. Chris Stolle, by around 2:1 ($55k-$27k) and who has nearly caught Stolle in cash-on-hand in this 55% Northam district. Go Nancy Guy!
• Great job by HD85 Dem nominee Alex Askew, who outraised her Republican opponent, Rocky Holcomb, by a nearly 4:1 margin ($82k-$22k) and who has far more cash-on-hand ($122k-$34k) in this 53% Northam district. Go Alex Askew!
• HD91 Dem nominee Martha Mugler outraised her Republican opponent, Colleen Holcomb, by a $21k-$8k margin, and has twice the cash-on-hand ($21k-$11k) in this 54% Northam district.
• Del. Mike Mullin (D-HD93) outraised his Republican opponent, Heather Cordasco, by a huge margin ($26,457-$3,785) and has far more cash-on-hand ($48k-$3.7k) in this 56% Northam district.
• HD94 Dem nominee Shelly Simonds outraised her Republican opponent, Del. David Yancey, by a nearly 2:1 margin ($95k-$51k), and is catching up to Yancey in terms of cash-on-hand in this 60% Northam district. Time for Shelly Simonds to win this one outright, especially given that Yancey’s only there because his name was drawn from a ceramic bowl last time around.
• I keep hearing what an impressive candidate HD100 Dem nominee Phil Hernandez is, and he showed it in June, outraising his Republican opponent, Del. Rob Bloxom, by an incredible margin ($96k-$475!). Hernandez now has FAR more cash-on-hand ($151k-$26k) than Bloxom, in this 53% Northam district. Really sensing a red-to-blue flip here – go Phil Hernandez!
• Loudoun County Board of Supervisors (Blue Ridge district) Dem nominee Tia Walbridge outraised Republican Supervisor Tony Buffington $99k-$46k, and nearly caught Buffington in terms of cash-on-hand. Nice job by Tia Walbridge!
• Prince William County Board Chair Dem nominee Ann Wheeler outraised her batsh**-crazy Republican opponent, John Gray, $21k-$4k, and has far more cash-on-hand ($48k-$20k). Go Ann Wheeler!
• Prince William County Board (Potomac District) Dem nominee Andrea Bailey outraised her Republican opponent, Doug Taggart, by a $17k-$3k margin, and has a strong cash-on-hand lead of $34k-$2k. Go Andrea Bailey!

THE BAD

• Sen. Lynwood Lewis (D-SD6) was outraised by his Republican opponent, Elizabeth Lankford, by a 2:1 margin ($36k-$17k), although he still has more than twice her cash-on-hand in this 58% Northam district. Still..would rather see Lewis outraising Lankford.
• Dems didn’t do that well in a bunch of tough, red-leaning State Senate districts. For instance, in the 60% Northam SD3 and SD4, the Dem nominees were outraised $51k-$6k and $43k-$5k, respectively. They’re also massively behind in terms of cash-on-hand. Not great at all.
• In SD28, Dem nominee Qasim Rashid was outraised by Republican Sen. Richard Stuart by a $62k-$28k margin, and has less than half Stuart’s cash-on-hand in this 54% Gillespie district. Not good.
• Del. Wendy Gooditis (D-HD10) was outraised by her Republican opponent, former Del. Randy Minchew, $71k-$63k, AND trails Minchew in cash-on-hand ($260k-$182k) in this 54% Northam district. Again, not good…definitely worried about this one.
• Del. Danica Roem (D-HD13) was outraised by her Republican opponent, Kelly McGinn, by a $43k-$35k margin, although Roem still has a lead in cash-on-hand ($135k-$107k) in this 57% Northam district.
• HD76 Dem nominee Clint Jenkins was outraised $58k-$44k by his Republican opponent, Del. Chris Jones. That wouldn’t be so bad, except that Jones started with a massive cash-on-hand lead, and how has an overwhelming $651k to Jenkins’ $50k. The good news: this is a 60% Northam district, so there’s still hope, despite the massive cash advantage for Jones.
• HD82 Dem nominee Gayle Johnson was outraised by her Republican opponent, Del. Jason Miyares, $20k-$5k, and has just $21k cash-on-hand vs. Miyares’ $131k in this 52% Gillespie district.
• HD84 Dem nominee Karen Mallard was outraised by her Republican opponent, Del. Glenn Davis, $119k-$47k, and trails in cash-on-hand by $128k-$88k, in this 52% Northam district.
• Loudoun County Board Chair Phyllis Randall (D) is facing a very tough challenge by former Virginia GOP Chair John Whitbeck. In June, Whitbeck outraised Randall $58k-$39k, extending his cash-on-hand lead to $253k-$147k, and using that money in part to reinvent himself from the hard-right partisan Republican he’s always been to some sort of moderate. It’s super frustrating to watch this, having followed Whitbeck’s godawful career the past few years.
• Prince William County Board Chair (Brentsville district) Dem nominee Maggie Hansford was outraised by her Republican opponent, Supervisor Jeanine Lawson, $19k-$8k, and trails in cash-on-hand by a nearly 2:1 margin ($121k-$64k) in this red-leaning part of the county.
• Prince William County Board (Occoquan district) Dem nominee Kenny Boddye was outraised by his Republican opponent, Supervisor Ruth Anderson, $18k-$8k, and trails in cash-on-hand by a $62k-$5k margin in this blue-leaning part of PW County.
• Chesterfield County Board (Midlothian district) Dem nominee Javaid Siddiqi was outraised by his Republican opponent, Leslie Haley, $8k-$4k, and trails in cash-on-hand $53k-$6k. this one’s borderline “ugly.”

THE UGLY

• I’m otherwise focused on Dems in this Good/Bad/Ugly list, but I have to point out that the Republican Party of Virginia raised just $36,385 from 4/1 to 6/30, which is pathetic in and of itself, but a MASSIVE joke when compared to the Democratic Party of Virginia’s $690,282. That is, believe it or not, a 19:1 margin for the Democrats over the Republicans. Advantage: Susan Swecker! 🙂
• HD26 Dem nominee Brent Finnegan was outraised more than 4:1 by his Republican opponent, Del. Tony Wilt, and has just $9,842 cash-on-hand, far less than Wilt’s $88k cash-on-hand, in this 53% Gillespie district.
• HD54 Dem nominee Neri Canahui-Ortiz was outraised more than 2:1 by her Republican opponent, Del. Bobby Orrock, and has just $7k cash-on-hand, compared to Orrock’s $208k, in this 53% Gillespie district. Ugh.
• HD58 Dem nominee Elizabeth Alcorn was outraised $42k-$9k by her Republican opponent, Del. Rob Bell, and has just a tiny fraction of Bell’s money ($309k-$11k) in this 55% Gillespie district.
• HD62 Dem nominee Lindsey Dougherty was outraised 2:1 by her Republican opponent, Carrie Coyner, and has less than one-tenth Coyner’s cash-on-hand ($135k-$12k) in this 51% Gillespie district.
• Fairfax County Board (Springfield District) Dem nominee Linda Sperling was outraised big-time ($55k-$8k) by her Republican opponent, Supervisor Pat Herrity, and now has less than one-sixth Herrity’s cash-on-hand ($181k-$27k). Not good at all.