“Tiffany, who lives in Northern Virginia with her husband, son and parents, talks about what paying $2,000 more in taxes next year would mean to her family. Tell us your story at” http://www.whitehouse.gov/My2k

Here are a few Virginia (and national) news headlines, political and otherwise, for Thursday, December 6.

*WH ‘Absolutely’ Willing To Go Off ‘Cliff’ (Fine, do it if Republicans won’t start to seriously compromise!)

*Wolf Blitzer Stumps Top House Republican By Asking For Spending Cut Specifics (Here’s the fundamental problem: all those teahadists screaming to “stop the spending” don’t actually want to cut, ya know, SPENDING, on things like Medicare, Social Security, Defense, roads, schools, and a million other things they don’t want to lose. The fact is, we have a revenue problem – now at 60 year low point as a share of economic output – much more than we have a spending problem in this country. Yep, the Tea Party has it completely backwards; go figure! LOL)

*Obama coming to Va. today to speak about fiscal cliff plan

*Some in GOP seek broader deal on ‘fiscal cliff’

*A top priority, Kaine says, is to balance budget

*Perriello declines bid for governor, endorses McAuliffe (Note that Julian Walker of the Virginian Pilot, as well as just about every other reporter, linked to and/or credited Blue Virginia for its scoop on Tom Perriello yesterday. The only one that didn’t? One guess. Yes, the Washington/Kaplan Post, which almost NEVER links to or credits blogs for their stories. It’s unethical, of course, but the Post apparently is so desperate for “eyeballs” at this point, they don’t care. #FAIL)

*Cantor: Dems must reveal spending cuts to move ‘fiscal cliff’ deal forward (Gotta love this guy’s chutzpah, anyway…)

*Christmas in D.C.? Cantor says no cliff deal, no break

*Crackdown on texting while driving gets bipartisan support in Virginia (I believe this is what’s known as a “no brainer”)

*McDonnell to seek $500M annually in new transportation money

*Cuccinelli throws brushback at Cantor

*McDonnell addresses statewide transportation conference

*Northam gears up for lieutenant governor run

*State unveils new water quality initiative

*Arlington streetcar options mulled

*Chesapeake animal shelter project blows deadline, busts budget

*Moran Proposes Bill to Reduce Voting Wait Times

P.S. Also see Since big media suck, you might not know there is a climate change conference in Qatar now.  

Very interesting analysis, I thought I’d pass it on. Al Assad's Last Stand is republished with permission of Stratfor.

By Omar Lamrani

The battle for Damascus is raging with increasing intensity while rebels continue to make substantial advances in Syria's north and east. Every new air base, city or town that falls to the rebels further underlines that Bashar al Assad's writ over the country is shrinking. It is no longer possible to accurately depict al Assad as the ruler of Syria. At this point, he is merely the head of a large and powerful armed force, albeit one that still controls a significant portion of the country.

The nature of the conflict has changed significantly since it began nearly two years ago. The rebels initially operated with meager resources and equipment, but bolstered by defections, some outside support and their demographic advantage, they have managed to gain ground on what was previously a far superior enemy. Even the regime's qualitative superiority in equipment is fast eroding as the rebels start to frequently utilize main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, rocket and tube artillery and even man-portable air-defense systems captured from the regime's stockpiles.

Weary and stumbling, the regime is attempting to push back rebel forces in and near Damascus and to maintain a corridor to the Alawite coast while delaying rebel advances in the rest of the country. Al Assad and his allies will fight for every inch, fully aware that their power depends on the ability of the regime forces to hold ground. 

The Battle for Damascus

After the last surge in fighting around Damascus in July and August, the regime kept large numbers of troops in the area. These forces continued search and destroy operations near the capital despite the considerable pressure facing its forces in the rest of the country, including in Aleppo. Once the rebels began to make gains in the north and east, the regime was forced to dispatch some of its forces around Damascus to reinforce other fronts. Unfortunately for the regime, its operations in the capital area had not significantly degraded local rebel forces. Rebels in the area began intensifying their operations once more, forcing the regime to recall many of its units to Damascus.It is important to remember that, despite considerable setbacks, al Assad's forces still control a sizable portion of Syria and its population centers. After failing to take Damascus in Operation Damascus Volcano in July, the rebels are again stepping up their efforts and operations in the Damascus area. However, unlike in their previous failed operation, this time the rebels are relying on an intensive guerrilla campaign to exhaust and degrade al Assad's substantial forces in Damascus and its countryside.

Aware of the magnitude of the threat, the regime has reportedly shifted its strategy in the battle for Damascus to isolating the city proper from the numerous suburbs. The rebels have made considerable headway in the Damascus suburbs. For example, on Nov. 25 rebels overran the Marj al-Sultan military air base in eastern Ghouta, east of the capital. Rebel operations in the outskirts of Damascus have also interrupted the flow of goods to and from the city, causing the prices of basic staples such as bread to skyrocket.

Rebel Gains in the East and North

Damascus is not the only area where the regime is finding itself under considerable pressure. The rebels have made some major advances in the last month in the energy-rich Deir el-Zour governorate to the east. Having seized a number of towns, airfields and military bases, the rebels have also taken the majority of the oil fields in the governorate. They captured the Al-Ward oil field Nov. 4, the Conoco natural gas reserve Nov. 27 and, after al Assad's forces withdrew from it on Nov. 29, the Omar oil field north of the town of Mayadeen. Al Assad's forces now control only five oil fields, all located west of the city of Deir el-Zour. With the battle for the city and its associated airfield intensifying, even those remaining fields are at risk of falling into rebel hands.

The rebel successes in Deir el-Zour have effectively cut the regime's ground lines of communication and supply to Iraq. They have also starved the regime of the vast majority of its oil revenue and affected its ability to fuel its war machine. At the same time, the rebels are reportedly already seeking to capitalize on their seizure of the eastern oil fields. According to reports, the rebels are smuggling oil to Turkey and Iraq and using the revenue to purchase arms. They are also reportedly using the oil and natural gas locally for power generators and fuel.

While all of eastern Syria may soon fall into rebel hands, rebels in the north have continued to isolate al Assad forces in Idlib and Aleppo governorates, particularly in the capital cities of those two provinces. After overrunning the 46th regiment near Atarib on Nov. 19 following a two-month siege, the rebels are now looking to further squeeze remaining regime forces in Aleppo by taking the Sheikh Suleiman base north of the 46th regiment's former base.

The Rebels' Improved Air Defense Capability

Isolated and surrounded, regime forces in the north are increasingly relying on air support for both defense and supply. However, this advantage is deteriorating every day and is increasingly threatened by the rebels' improved air defense arsenal and tactics.

The rebels first attempted to acquire air defense weaponry by seizing heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft artillery. They captured a number of air defense bases, taking 12.7 mm DShK heavy machine guns, 14.5 mm KPV heavy machine guns and even 23 mm ZU-23-2 autocannons. Over time, the rebels became more proficient with these weapons, and an increasing number of Syrian air force fixed-wing and rotary aircraft were shot down. The rebels also formed hunter-killer groups with air defense equipment mounted on flatbed trucks that provided them mobile platforms for targeting regime air and infantry units.

As more and more regime bases were taken, the rebels were able to bolster their air defense equipment through the capture of a number of man-portable air-defense systems. At the outset of the conflict, the Syrian military maintained a large inventory of shoulder-fired air-defense missiles, likely thousands of missiles ranging from early generation SA-7s to very advanced SA-24s. These missiles were stored in army bases across the country. There are also unconfirmed reports that Qatar and Saudi Arabia may have transferred some man-portable air-defense systems to the rebels through Turkey.

The rebels tallied their first confirmed kill with shoulder-fired air-defense missiles Nov. 27, when they shot down a Syrian Arab Air Force Mi-8/17 helicopter near Aleppo city. The weapon system used in the attack was likely an SA-7, SA-16 or SA-24 captured from the 46th regiment. The surface-to-air missiles are a serious upgrade in the rebels' air defense capability.

The Fight Continues

Having isolated al Assad's forces in the north and made substantial advances in the east, the rebels are poised to push farther into the Orontes River Valley to relieve the beleaguered rebel units in the Rastan, Homs and al-Qusayr areas of Homs governorate. For months, regime forces have sought to overwhelm the remaining rebel forces in Homs city, but the rebels have managed to hold out. The rebels are also set to begin pushing south along the main M5 thoroughfare to Khan Sheikhoun and the approaches to Hama. However, first they need to overwhelm the remaining regime forces in Wadi al-Dhaif near Maarrat al-Numan.

Alternatively, the regime is fighting hard to maintain its control over the Orontes River Valley around Homs in order to keep an open corridor linking Damascus to the mostly Alawite coast. Not only is this corridor at risk of eventually being cut off, but the regime is also facing a substantial push by rebel forces into northeastern Latakia governorate from Idlib. Rebels have advanced in the vicinity of the Turkman Mountain, have taken control of Bdama and are now fighting their way down in the direction of Latakia city.

While events in Damascus and Rif Damascus are increasingly worrisome for the regime, al Assad's forces in the rest of Syria are also under considerable pressure from rebel advances. It is by no means certain that al Assad's forces are under imminent threat of collapse because they still hold a great deal of territory and no major city has yet been completely taken by the rebels. The retreat and consolidation of al Assad's forces also allows them to maintain shorter and less vulnerable lines of supply. However, it is clear that the regime is very much on the defensive and has been forced to gradually contract its lines toward a core that now encompasses Damascus, the Orontes River Valley and the mostly Alawite coast. With the regime's situation rapidly deteriorating, even the attempt to stage a gradual withdrawal to the core is risky.

I had a chance to sit down with Del. David Toscano (D-Charlottesville) this afternoon for an interview. Mostly, I wanted to discuss the upcoming 2013 General Assembly session and Virginia elections for governor, LG, AG, and House of Delegates. Of course, given today’s breaking news on the Virginia gubernatorial front, I also asked Del. Toscano for comment on Tom Perriello. For that, see Update #2 here. A few other highlights from the interview are as follows. All quotes (bolding added for emphasis and easy skimming) are taken from my audio recording of the interview.

*Odd-year elections give Republicans an inherent advantage, and “the only way you’re going to overcome that is grassroots, in-the-field organizing, to make sure you can activate the coalition that brought the victory for Obama in Virginia this past fall.”

*”I think Terry understands that…the conservative activists are enthused about Cuccinelli, there’s not going to be any lack of enthusiasm on that side. And I think [Terry’s] challenge, and our challenge as Democrats, is to make sure we activate the coalition that won us this fall. That’s a tremendous challenge; we have to be up for it or we’re going to lose.”

*”There’s no way that we win the election without a substantial African American turnout. Whether that’s having a person on the ticket who’s African American, or a person or persons who can speak to the needs of that community, you’ve got to have it…Terry is going to run real hard in those communities, he’s going to have Clinton on his side…he’ll have Obama on his side; I think that’s going to make a big difference.”

*”We have to get [the Obama campaign’s voter] data…we have to make sure we have those organizers working it again. The good news is we just came off the election so we know where those votes are…if we can get them, or at least close to as many of them as we can, we’re going to win; if we can’t we won’t.”

*”We need most [of the Obama campaign data]…Voter IDs are probably not enough, we probably also need to know why it is people did what they did. We’ve been told that we’re going to get most of that data…Now it’s all about legacy; part of [Obama’s] legacy is getting McAuliffe elected in Virginia…Obama wants to be able to make his stamp on this country; part of that is making sure we get governors in office who are Democrats.”

*According to Del. Toscano, we need to make sure voters – including “federal only” voters – understand the importance of local and state elections. “If they don’t, we get people running for office at the highest level who are the most rabid conservatives, because they worked their way through the ranks.”

*”I think people in leadership at the state level understand that very clearly; so that’s why we tried so hard to defeat Cuccinelli in the Attorney General race, because we knew that if he won there, he’d be looking to move up to governor…[or maybe even] president.”

*”We have a challenge [regarding voter turnout]…to try to explain how important every single one of these elections is at all levels. I don’t think we’ve really done as good job [at that] as we need to do.”

*In terms of whether they vote or not, people tend to judge the presidency as a more important race, “even though there are more things that a city council and a board of supervisors do that affect their individual lives than the president.” Also, I pointed out that people’s vote counts more/can have more impact at the local and state level, and Del. Toscano agreed.

*According to Del. Toscano, there’s “definitely a disconnect” between voter turnout at the local/state level and the importance of voting at the local/state level.

*I asked Del. Toscano if he thought using social media more effectively could help deal with this “disconnect.” Toscano responded, “I think sometimes people don’t understand…that the way people get their news now is so fundamentally different from the way the got their news 10 years ago.” (By the way, Toscano says the first thing he checks online in the morning is VPAP’s news clips, and the second thing he checks is Blue Virginia – gotta love that answer, lol.)

*”People don’t understand that [Blue Virginia has] got a readership, that the #1 news source for them is [Blue Virginia]; and there are all these little silos of people out there...elected officials should try to take advantage of that, because that’s how they could reach out to these different groups.”

*With regard to 2013 House of Delegates races, Del. Toscano noted that “there are 18 [House of Delegates] seats where Republicans now sit as the incumbent where Obama and Kaine got over 50% of the vote.”

*”We are working our tails off to get candidates not just in the seats where the Democratic Performance Index is high, but also in the seats where it’s low. We want to field as many candidates as we can around the state…there will be some targeting because we don’t have unlimited resources…but we’ve got a lot of candidates who are either committed to running or are about ready to commit.”

*”You cannot build a sustainable party without an infrastructure, and you can’t build an infrastructure without candidates…I am confident that we’re going to have strong candidates [for House of Delegates] in the Obama districts.”

*”We’d like to have as many [candidates] committed as we can before the [General Assembly] session starts, because we think part of what we need to do is calling out some of these folks on their votes during the session.”

*Of course, “Republicans may [try to] moderate themselves a little bit in this session” but on the other hand they’re already on the record on “some very very bad things” and have a lot of “bad votes” (e.g., on “personhood,” “transvaginal ultrasound,” etc.).

*Big issues for the 2013 General Assembly session include Medicaid expansion, health care exchanges, and transportation.

*On Medicaid, “there’s a clear contrast, either you’re going to take the federal money to expand Medicaid that will insure some 400,000 Virginians or you’re going to let the feds take our money to send it to Connecticut or New York to serve people [there] and give them insurance…That will set up a clear contrast between Democrats and Republicans.”

*On transportation funding, Del. Toscano believes “[State Senator John] Watkins’ {gas tax} proposal tees that issue up,” although “it’s not enough and it remains to be seen how far it will go and how many phone calls Grover Norquist makes to House Republicans to tell them they should not ever raise revenue under any circumstances.”

*”We’re going to see again whether Grover Norquist controls the House of Delegates or whether Virginians control the House of Delegates.”

*”There will be some very interesting arguments on education…the governor will try to push a so-called education reform package, which will renew the discussion about charter schools, vouchers; we’ll see if he puts more money on the table for teacher salaries.”

*”You’re going to see on the Republican side more attempts to suppress the vote. And on our side, we’re going to have voter expansion…early voters, longer hours at the polls, more money for voting machines so you can lessen the waiting lines…why can’t that be a bipartisan position?”

*“If [Republicans] were smart, they would not raise the issue” of “illegal immigration.”

*On clean energy and climate change, Del. Toscano says we shouldn’t have to worry about the SCC approving the “no brainer” of a simple demonstration project for solar power, but apparently “they’re skittish about the potential impact on the rate payer.”

*Toscano also notes that Ken Cuccinelli is “ginning up his political base” against the EPA and alternative energy (that it’s supposedly costing the consumer “a lot more money”), so “people are very careful right now.”

*The bottom line, though, in Toscano’s view, is that there’s “not much chance of progress [on clean energy and environmental issues] without a fundamental shift in the House of Delegates…have to take the governorship back [as well].”

*Finally, Toscano believes climate change “just don’t really seem to engage the public as much as it did a couple years ago.”

My recorder ran out of juice at that point, but we only had a few more minutes and that pretty much covers the gist of the interview. Thanks to Del. Toscano for his time today, it’s very much appreciated. It was also good meeting former Charlottesville Mayor David Brown, who was with Del. Toscano, sat in on the interview, and added a number of interesting points of his own.

( – promoted by lowkell)

Criticism of Dominion Virginia Power has been steadily mounting over the $76 million the company has been awarded as a “bonus” for complying with Virginia’s voluntary renewable energy law. Last week Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli weighed in with a report echoing the charges environmentalists have been making for the past year: Dominion has succeeded in meeting the letter of the law, and collecting bonus money from its customers, without investing in any new renewable energy projects.

The AG’s office exonerates Dominion, claiming the real failure is the legislature’s for passing a law that allowed this to happen. Silly Mr. Cuccinelli: this is Virginia. Dominion wrote the law.

But it’s worse than you know. The money-for-nothing issue is partly a result of the statute’s failure to require new investments in high-value projects like wind and solar energy as a condition of earning the bonus, but it is also a function of the extremely modest targets set by the statute itself. Virginia’s renewable energy goal is usually stated as 15% renewable energy by 2025, but when 2025 rolls around, the goal will be met with less than half this percentage, possibly much less.

The greenwash works like this: the statute sets a 2025 target for renewable energy to make up 15% of “total electric energy sold.” You probably think you know what “total electric energy sold” means. You don’t. Only if you are whiling away an idle afternoon reading the definitions section of the statute do you learn that “total electric energy sold” is defined as the total amount of electricity sold, minus the amount provided by nuclear power. In the case of Dominion Power, nuclear is about a third of the total. So for Dominion, 15% of “total electric energy sold” actually means only 10% of its electricity sales.

You will rarely see Dominion acknowledge this, though until recently its executives worded their statements carefully so they could not be accused of actually lying to anyone. Lately, however, the company has grown careless with the truth. A press release dated October 4, 2012 includes this fun quiz question and answer: “Is Dominion investing in renewable power sources? (Answer) Yes, in Virginia Dominion has committed to getting 15 percent of its power from renewable sources by 2025.”

Yet even if this statement said Dominion would get 15% of its “non-nuclear power” from renewable energy by 2025, it would still be wrong. When 2025 arrives, meeting the goal won’t require Dominion to achieve anywhere near 15% of its non-nuclear sales (10% of total) from renewable energy. That’s because the target percentage is measured against 2007 sales, not 2025 sales, and Virginia is growing. Assuming sales increase a little under 2% per year as Dominion projects, by the time 2025 rolls around, meeting the goal will require only about 7% renewables. If Dominion builds the new nuclear plant it wants, that number will shrink further.

Conceivably the number could go even lower. Since 2007, Virginia politicians have twice demonstrated how much they love renewable energy by watering the goal down even further, but doing it in a way that makes it sound awesome. They passed bills that say utilities will get double credit for any wind and solar they use to meet the goal. In fact-what the heck-if they build offshore wind farms, we’ll give them triple credit!

Wow, triple credit! That’s great! Isn’t it?

Come to think of it, no. Combine that with the other sleights-of-hand, and now Dominion could satisfy Virginia’s entire 15% renewable portfolio goal with about 3.5% of our electricity coming from solar energy or wind farms on land. For offshore wind, less than two and a half percent would do it. And that’s thirteen years from now.

Chances are, this doubling and tripling will never matter. Dominion “earned” its $76 million bonus for meeting the letter of the law with electricity from old dams and biomass (i.e., wood-burning), and by buying cheap credits from out of state. Dominion can get enough of this cheap renewable energy that it will be able to meet the goals through 2025 without investing in wind and solar.

Given Dominion’s approach to meeting the goals, it might be just as well that the target is so low. But then you have to wonder: $76 million for that?

Here are a few Virginia (and national) news headlines, political and otherwise, for Wednesday, December 5.

*After Spending $9 Million To Defeat Her, Wall Street Watches Sen-Elect Warren Join Banking Committee (Great news, go Senator Warren!)

*Republicans not handling election results well (This would be hilarious if it weren’t so disturbing. Actually, it still IS hilarious!)

*GOP risks rift with right on taxes

*Magical thinking in new GOP fiscal cliff plan (Their entire philosophy is based on “magical thinking,” isn’t it?)

*Opening bids on ‘fiscal cliff’ talks are too small (How about a carbon tax? Nah, way too logical!)

*Grover Norquist stands ‘corrected’ again

*Second act often muted for former governors (“Wilder’s pass on Obama may have confirmed his unreliability for jaded Democrats who expect nothing less. But for the new generation of voters, Wilder, even as a history-maker, is a faint, distant figure. And what once would have been a big political story instead was a little-noticed brief buried inside the newspaper.”)

*Uranium mining in Va. should proceed carefully (Did Virginia Uranium fly the Post’s editorial board to France or what?)

*How many Democrats does it take to co-chair a political campaign?

*Kaine says civility in Congress may be hard to find

*Could Perriello Make a Run for Va. Governor?

*Gas Tax or Higher Tolls? Both Could Become Transportation Funding Options in Virginia

*Va. GOP revives drug testing for welfare recipients (Are they going to require this for corporate welfare recipients, like Northrop Grumman for instance?)

*Fraim urges legislators to maintain uranium ban

*Editorial: Righting a wrong on utility rules (“Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli may be politically motivated, but his conclusions on electric rate regulations ring true.”)

*Navy builds state’s largest solar power farm near Norfolk base

*Virginia Beach could opt for bus system over light rail project

*Fairfax board backs down on Tysons tax hike

*Wrong Turn (“Privatizing road construction was supposed to be the answer. So why is it more expensive and less transparent?”)

*Scores rally against hate crimes at UVa

*Dan Haren and Denard Span: For Nats, the price is right