It’s that time of year again…time for Mardi Gras parties, including the always-awesome one put on by the Mt. Vernon Democratic Committee. This year, they’re having a straw poll for the 10th CD Democratic primary candidates (sounds like most will be there). I’m going to try to make it, if for no other reason than the open bar, which I think a lot of us badly need after 13 months of Trump’s reign of terror.
Tag: 10th CD
10th CD Dem Primary Poll: Virtual 3-Way Dead Heat Between Kathy Smith, Dorothy McAuliffe, Jennifer Wexton
This morning, following State Senator Jennifer Wexton’s entry into the race, the Cook Political Report moved Virginia’s 10th CD into the “Toss Up” category. According to Cook’s analysis:
Wexton possesses an ideal resume for this contest. A former county prosecutor who served as a court-appointed attorney for abused and neglected children, Wexton is a proven vote-getter: she won a competitive 2014 special election for a state senate seat entirely within VA-10 and was reelected in 2015. And unlike Comstock (and Comstock’s last two Democratic opponents), Wexton hails from Loudoun County, the population center of the 10th CD.
Other Democrats in the race so far are Dan Helmer, Lindsey Davis Stover and Kimberly Adams, while Fairfax County Board member Kathy Smith and Virginia First Lady Dorothy McAuliffe are also possibilities, and there certainly could be more.
Also check out Michael Pope’s story on the 10th CD race, which among other things reports: “Robert Denton at Virginia Tech says candidates in this race could pull in as much as $40 million.”
So, clearly, a LOT of people are highly interested in Virginia’s 10th CD, and no doubt this should be one of the nation’s most-watched/high-profile races next year.
An indicator of this interest is that a women’s-oriented, third-party group (sorry, everyone, that’s all I can say in terms of identifying them) recently commissioned a 10th CD poll among announced and probable Democratic candidates. The top-line results were leaked to me; here are the highlights – which probably will surprise you just as much as they undoubtedly surprised (and perhaps disappointed if they were looking for a clear leader) the group that commissioned the poll.
OVERALL RESULTS
Fairfax County Supervisor (Sully District) Kathy Smith: 20%
Virginia First Lady Dorothy McAuliffe: 17%
Virginia State Senator (33rd district) Jennifer Wexton: 15%
Other four candidates: 3%
Undecided: 45%A three-way tie, statistically speaking; definitely not decisive one way or the other, with a large proportion (45%) undecided – as one would expect at this point.
RESULTS IN FAIRFAX COUNTY PORTIONS OF THE 10TH CD
Smith: 40%
McAuliffe: 11%
Wexton: 9%
Other four candidates: 3%
Undecided: 37%Not surprisingly, Kathy Smith does very well in the Fairfax County portions of the 10th CD, given that she’s on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, and previously was elected to the Fairfax County School Board from Sully District in 2002. Still, it’s a bit surprising to me that Dorothy McAuliffe didn’t do a bit better in Fairfax, and that Jennifer Wexton isn’t at least a bit better known there…
RESULTS IN LOUDOUN COUNTY PORTIONS OF THE 10TH CD
Wexton: 26%
McAuliffe: 14%
Smith: 10%
Other four candidates: 2%
Undecided: 48%Again, not surprisingly, Jennifer Wexton does very well on her home turf, although McAuliffe and Smith hold their own to an extent. Perhaps a County Supervisor and former School Board member is better known to her constituents than a member of the Virginia General Assembly is to hers? Keep in mind that this poll was of likely Democratic voters, and Loudoun County tends to have lower turnout than Fairfax County. For instance, recall that even the well-known, popular, Loudoun County “hometown boy” Mark Herring struggled with turnout in the 2013 Democratic AG primary against Justin Fairfax…
RESULTS IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE 10TH CD
McAuliffe: 33%
Wexton: 13%
Smith: 13%
Other four candidates: 4%
Undecided: 37%The western parts of the 10th CD are outside all of the leading Democratic candidates’ home turf, so here it appears to be more McAuliffe’s name ID winning the day than anything else.
BREAKING OUT FAIRFAX COUNTY/10TH CD
Sully District/10th CD
Smith: 66%
Wexton: 6%
McAuliffe: 5%
Other four candidates: 2%
Undecided: 21%Obviously, Smith dominates in Sully District, which she represents on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, and which she represented on the Fairfax County School Board for many years prior to that.
Non Sully Portions of Fairfax County/10th CD
Smith: 21%
McAuliffe: 16%
Wexton: 11%
Other four candidates: 3%
Undecided: 49%In non-Sully portions of Fairfax County (10th CD), McAuliffe comes close to Smith, with Wexton trailing…
BREAKING OUT LOUDOUN COUNTY/10TH CD
Wexton’s State Senate District/10th CD
Wexton: 32%
McAuliffe: 11%
Smith: 9%
Other four candidates: 3%
Undecided: 45%Not surprisingly, Wexton does very well in her State Senate district…
Non-Wexton Portions of Loudoun County/10th CD
Wexton: 19%
McAuliffe: 16%
Smith: 11%
Other four candidates: 2%
Undecided: 52%Outside of her State Senate district in Loudoun County, Wexton does fairly well, but doesn’t appear to be particularly well known.
Finally, see below for maps of the 10th CD, 33rd State Senate district and Sully district…
VA 10th CD Map
33rd State Senate District Map
Sully District – Fairfax County Map
Results of 10th CD Republican Straw Poll Are VERY Telling…But Not in a Good Way
Check out these Loudoun County GOP straw poll results, conducted prior to the 10th CD Republican convention, as they are very telling…although certainly not in a good way. The following are some of the top straw poll finishers for national delegate, with a brief description of why I said “not in a good way.”Dick Black (Cruz supporter) 45 votes, 16%: See here for more on this lunatic. Also see: What Is It With Loudoun Republicans?!? Dick Black on Spousal Rape, “Nighties,” etc., The Truth About Dick Black (e.g., called birth control pills “baby pesticides,” passed out “pink plastic fetus dolls to state lawmakers in 2003 in a creepy campaign to win votes for various anti-abortion measures,” called “An Embarrassment to us all” by John Feegel, a former Chief of Staff to the Republican Leader in the Virginia House of Delegates); Republican Loudoun-sanity Continues: Dick Black Rails Against Gays in the Military (“there was a young fellow who went to the showers at night, there were two homosexuals lurking — they were also basic trainees – and they strangled him with a towel and forced him to submit to, you know, things that we won’t talk about”); Sen. Dick Black (R-Homophobia): Polygamy “just more natural” than homosexuality; VA Sen. Dick Black (R) Praises “Extraordinary Gallantry” of Syrian Armed Forces, GOP Candidate Who Made Marital Rape Remarks Drops Out of Congressional Race, etc, etc. A perfect fit for Ted Cruz! LOL
Patricia Phillips (Cruz) 32 votes, 12%: Check out this classic by Too Conservative, in which a robocall by her State Senate campaign called Mark Herring “a ‘traitor’ and more for voting WITH Governor McDonnell on transportation issues, then signs off with ‘Paid for and authorized by Patricia Phillips for Senate.’ Huh? Vote for the Republican because the Democrat is too Republican?” Also, from that same post: “Then, in a recent mailer, she calls out Herring for not thanking veterans –using a picture of a SOVIET officer. Look closely and you’ll even see the “CCCP” in one of the medals on his chest.” I actually would have guessed that Phillips would be more of a Trump supporter, but crazy Cruz will do I suppose.
Eugene Delgaudio (Trump) 31 votes, 11%: Where does one even start with this former Loudoun County Board member and raving anti-LGBT bigot? You could check out Loudoun Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio More Off His Meds Than Usual? Also see Loudoun County Supervisor Eugene Delgaudio’s latest anti-gay ravings, Video: Raging Homophobe Eugene Delgaudio Sings Against Gays in Boy Scouts!, Raving Anti-LGBT Bigot Eugene Delguadio: Paul Ryan the “Homosexual Lobby’s Trojan Horse for Speaker”, Eugene Delgaudio: Radical Homosexual Pirates Invade Tampa; Loudoun County Next?, etc, etc. Yeah, this guy seems like more of a Cruz supporter…
Howie Lind (Trump) 23 votes, 8%: See Howie Lind Has Gone Off the Deep End by Republican Brian Schoeneman. That kind of says it all, and also helps explain Lind’s support for Trump.
There are a lot more right wingnuts in the straw poll where these came from, but you get the idea. What I find interesting, and highly revealing, is that the same people who voted for the aforementioned also voted for…yep, Ed Gillespie for governor (note: Ken Cuccinelli was not on the ballot, for some strange reason) and Jill “Mandatory Transvaginal Ultrasounds” Vogel for Lt. Governor. What does that say about Gillespie and Vogel? For starters, that under no circumstances should Virginia Democrats allow them to get elected next year.
LuAnn Bennett Officially Kicks Off Campaign For Congress In Virginia’s 10th District
From the LuAnn Bennett for Congress campaign
MCLEAN – Last night, joined by over 150 friends and supporters, LuAnn Bennett officially kicked off her campaign for Congress in Virginia’s 10th District in Loudoun County at the Bungalow Lakehouse Restaurant in Sterling. Bennett, a Democrat, was joined by Attorney General Mark Herring, State Senator Jennifer Wexton, State Senator Barbara Favola, Delegate John Bell, Delegate Mark Sickles, Loudoun Supervisor Koran Saines, Loudoun Supervisor Kristen Umstattd and Fairfax Supervisor John Foust.
The following is a portion of Bennett’s prepared remarks:
“As I stand before you today, I know that my story could be the story of so many families in Northern Virginia. When things go wrong, we have a choice: we can give in or we can fight. I’ve spent the last 21 years fighting for my family. Now, I want to help fight for you, your family and all families here in the 10th district.
“As a business owner for the last 35 years, I’ve gone to work every day and faced challenges. I routinely work with people I don’t necessarily agree with and, in some cases, may not even like. But I do it because my company, my customers and my employees depend on solving those problems and moving forward.
“Unfortunately, today our government is not making the hard decisions to move our country forward. They’re not finishing the work to fully heal our economy. There are still too many families that are struggling to make ends meet. We need to rebuild our middle class so that each and every worker can earn a fair wage. We need to invest in our infrastructure and pass comprehensive immigration reform. We need to invest in order to provide a quality education for every child, make college more affordable and provide opportunities for retraining adults in the workforce to provide new opportunities and new career paths as the economy changes.
“The 10th district deserves a Congresswoman who reflects its values. One who trusts women to make their own health care decisions. One who believes we need to treat new Americans with compassion and doesn’t compare them to FedEx packages. One who believes in science and is committed to protecting our natural environment for our children and grandchildren. And one who is willing to stand up to the gun lobby and support common sense gun safety measures.
“That’s why I’m running. There is work to be done and, together, we will fight to find solutions to the challenges facing Northern Virginia and our country, not hide from the hard choices or shut the government down when we don’t get our way.”
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