• jwsevert

    This is pretty astounding, on a number of counts.

    While McKelvey does live at Smith Mountain Lake in Franklin County, there is a bit of a divide between those viewed as “come here” Lake dwellers and the traditional political establishment run by longer term residents.  That McKelvey overcame this divide to win by such a convincing margin is surprising.

    Robert Hurt’s Senate district includes Franklin County.  For him to place third (behind not only McKelvey but Scrooge McDuck) indicates Hurt is in much more serious trouble than most had thought.  It is as if, in an earlier year, Virgil Goode had placed third in a Republican straw poll in one of the localities of his old State Senate district – something that would’ve been unimaginable.

    Feda Kidd Morton has campaigned as the candidate who Virgil Goode encouraged to run, has been endorsed by Phyllis Schlafly and the Farrisees and, of course, is the only woman amongst the seven dwarves.  It is strange that she couldn’t do better in a straw poll at a Republican women’s organization.

    Ken Boyd has run the most organized and professional district-wide campaign to date.  Given the combination of his record of electoral successes, his governmental experience, his base in Albemarle county and his strong work ethic and lack of ambivalence about running for Congress (contra Hurt), Boyd would probably be the most potent general election threat to our Congressman that Republicans could find.  That doesn’t seem to matter, however, to the activists who dominate Republican nominating processes.  As my great aunt Ella used to say, “some people have bought a ticket on the train to crazy town, and some have arrived at their destination.”

    One caveat, straw polls are notoriously bad predictors of the outcome of a primary election.  Except, when they’re not.