Election Predictions: Virginia 2010

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    1st Congressional District: Easy Republican Retention

    I supported Krystal Ball for the nomination because I thought she’d be both the more progressive and the stronger candidate than Scott Robinson. I also was hoping that Catherine “Bullet Box” Crabill might run as a Tea Party candidate, potentially splitting the vote with Republican incumbent Rob Wittman. Unfortunately, although I continue to believe I was right about Krystal Ball, Crabill got crushed by Wittman in the Republican primary, and Ball hasn’t really been able to gain any serious traction on Wittman. The net result in this heavily “red” district: Wittman 60%-Ball 40%

    2nd Congressional District: Toss Up

    I have no idea who’s going to win this one, and part of me doesn’t care. Why do I say that? Because Glenn Nye is pretty much the least progressive Democrat in Congress, having voted against – among other things – health care reform and clean energy/climate legislation. Having said that, I also believe that Scott Rigell is utterly awful, a typical right wingnut who lists an outright bigot (Rev. Lou Sheldon) prominently as an endorser. So, let’s put it this way, it’s not so much that I want Nye to win, but I want Rigell to LOSE. Finally, Kenny Golden may be a factor in this race if he gets close to 10% of the vote and pulls more from Rigell than from Nye. We’ll see. Anyway, who will win next Tuesday? Right now it could go either way. Nye 47%-Rigell 47%-Golden 6%.

    3rd Congressional District: Easy Democratic Retention

    Rep. Bobby Scott is superb, popular, and will easily remain in Congress for another 2 years over his unknown Republican opponent (Chuck Smith). Scott 75%-Smith 25%

    4th Congressional District: Easy Republican Retention

    Rep. Randy Forbes defeated Democrat Andrea Miller 60%-40% in the 2008 presidential year. This time around, Forbes will easily defeat Democrat Wynne LeGrow. It’s very unfortunate, because Forbes is horrible and LeGrow would be excellent.  Oh well. Forbes 65%-LeGrow 35%

    5th Congressional District Tossup

    Rep. Tom Perriello is one of the best people in Congress, certainly one of the best who was first elected (barely) in 2008. The problem is, this isn’t 2008, but instead is a much tougher, mid-term election in which the Republicans are energized and “angry.” In theory, that should help Perriello’s opponent, State Senator Robert Hurt. However, this isn’t theory, and in reality, Perriello is a superb and tireless campaigner, an articulate and skillful debater, and far and away more than a match for Robert Hurt as a politician. So, this will come down to the battle of the “overall playing field” (advantage, Hurt) versus the clear superiority of Tom Perriello in every other way. Right now, I’d have to say this leans slightly to Hurt, but as always, it would be a huge mistake to count Tom Perriello out.  Also, we’ll see if third-party/Tea Party candidate Jeff Clark can draw a few points away from Hurt.  Current prediction: Hurt 48%-Perriello 48%-Clark 4%. [NOTE: I freely admit that I’m biased on this one, as I consider Tom to be a friend and I admire him greatly. So, feel free to take this prediction with whatever sized grain of salt you care to. :)]

    6th Congressional District: Easy Republican Retention

    Rep. Bob Goodlatte is a right wingnut who will win reelection easily in this district, where he faces no Democratic opponent. Unfortunately. Goodlatte 80%-Others 20%

    7th Congressional District: Easy Republican Retention

    Rep. Eric Cantor is an empty suit and a bully, but he’ll win in this heavily Republican district – where he basically controls the media, by the way – over poorly funded (but surprisingly feisty!) Democratic candidate Rick Waugh and Tea Party candidate Floyd Bayne. Definitely, bad news for America. Can’tor 60%-Waugh 35%-Bayne 5%

    8th Congressional District: Easy Democratic Retention

    Rep. Jim Moran will win fairly easily in this heavily “blue” district, despite Republicans pouring money and resources into the campaign of Patrick Murray. In the end, it won’t lead to Moran’s defeat, although it will have had the desired effect of having helped pin down Moran so he can’t help Gerry Connolly and other Democrats in more competitive districts. Smart strategery. Moran 60%-Murray 40%

    9th Congressional District: Slightly Leaning Democratic Retention

    This one’s a lot closer than I thought it would be when it started. While Rep. Rick Boucher remains personally popular, it’s a really tough year to e a Democrat in a district like the 9th, and Morgan Griffith has been fairly well funded. Thank goodness that Griffith lives outside the district, because if someone like Terry Kilgore had run this year, he very well might have won. But he didn’t, and in the end, my prediction is that Boucher will hang on by the skin of his teeth. Boucher 51%-Griffith 49%

    10th Congressional District: Easy Republican Retention

    What can we say about Rep. Frank Wolf that we haven’t said already? No, he’s not a moderate. Yes, this district went for Barack Obama and Jim Webb. But no, Frank Wolf ain’t goin’ anywhere, it appears, until he decides to retire. Judy Feder was well funded and lost badly. Jeff Barnett is barely funded at all and – although perhaps he’s a better “fit” for the district – he’ll lose badly as well. It’s really unfortunate, but there it is. Wolf 60%-Barnett 39%-Redpath 1%.

    11th Congressional District: Leaning Democratic Retention

    It would be interesting to know what would have happened if Republicans had nominated Pat Herrity – relatively moderate, well known in Fairfax because of his father’s name and good reputation – instead of right wingnut Keith Fimian. On the other hand, Fimian certainly has plenty of money, both his own and also the shadowy outside right-wing groups that are pounding Rep. Gerry Connolly day in and day out. Fortunately for Connolly, Fimian’s truly an extremist and out of step with his district on social issues. That should help Connolly pull this one out, but it won’t be by a lot. Connolly 52%-Fimian 48%

    So, what are your predictions?

    • GregHabeeb

      Until a couple weeks ago I thought they’d split 2-2 with Rs possibly squeaking out a 3rd.  However, based on the latest information, it’s really looking like a surprise Republican sweep.  My predictions:

      Rigell wins 52-46

      Hurt wins 50-47

      Griffith wins 49-47

      Fimian wins 51-49

      Ranking them in order of most likely to flip party I’d rank them 2nd, 5th, 9th, 11th.

    • I pretty much agree with this.  I do think it’s possible for the Republicans to sweep, but possible isn’t the same as probable.

      Unfortunately, I do think that Perriello goes down, although by less than 2%.  And just as the make-up of this election favors Republicans, I think it’s not hard to see Perriello back in Congress two years from now, if that’s something he wants to do.

    • blue bronc

      Across the country and locally with Fimian, the far right half baked teabaggers are finally saying and doing things that turn off voters. Although a few had done this earlier, Angle, Palin, the Texas guy wanting to have killing of Dems if he did not win, and close to home our “I’m Not A Witch” O’Donnell, are fine examples.

      During the last few days the ones that had been controlling themselves are losing control. Attacking reporters, stomping on visitors, talking discredited crap about gays and lesbians (a whole herd of these nuts), doing the racism talk they are known for, and generally showing they have no self control and could not wait until Tuesday at closing of the polls to drop the facade.

      With everything this freaks are doing now I hope there are enough people planning on now voting for the Dems.

    • Johnny Longtorso

      Aside from the TV ads, there’s almost no indication that he’s running for another term here. This week, I’ve gotten eight mailers from the Republicans and zero from the Democrats. I can’t imagine him pulling out a win here.

      Perriello is also going to lose. Wrong candidate, wrong district, wrong year.

      Boucher is 50/50. If I had to bet, I’d say he ekes out a win, but Griffith is going to Congress, if not this year, then in 2012. I wouldn’t be surprised if Boucher just retires in 2012.

      Connolly is a slight favorite to win. Fimian has a lot of money, but is crazy, and the Republicans have been hesitant to spend here.

      As far as numbers are concerned, I’d say Rigell by 4-6, Hurt by 6-8, Boucher by less than 1, and Connolly by 2-3.

    • libra

      Agree that the Bitter Brew (not-so-good latte) will win easily, but we do have a Dem running, if only for show: Linda Wyatt, the Chair of the 6th district’s Dem Committee. It’s just that she’s not on the ballot (simply a Dem “protest vote”) and will have to be written in.

      In our area, the three committees (Buena Vista, Lexington and Rockbridge County) have banded together to send out a postcard to every Dem we knew about, urging them to go and vote and to “express your dissatisfaction with “Goodlatte’s job performance”, by writing her in.

      We have also worked with the Registrars, who promised to have the write-in screen on the information table, along with the sample ballot sheets and the explanation brochures regarding the amendments (the poll workers have been told to advise the voters to go and read those before voting, so as not to block the voting machines by reading at the last moment). And we’re hoping to have enough outside-the-polls “workers” with signs urging the write-in and telling people who to write in where and how to do it.

      It’s not that we think she has a snowball’s chance of winning. But each locality has to have at least 5% of the participating voters agree on their choice, before that name is even counted. That is, 20 people voting for Mickey Mouse, another 10 for Donald Duck and yet another 30 for Ralph Nader are not likely to “register” (other than simply as an under-vote for Goodlate), but 60 people voting for Linda Wyatt just might clear that barrier, in a small place with low turnout.

      So, if you’re in the 6th… Please show the finger to Goodlate. And use it to write-in Linda Wyatt.

    • Cool_Arrow

      Safe Democrat

      3rd and 8th

      Safe Republican

      1st, 4th, 6th, 7th

      Close races:

      2nd – There is no way Nye is going to pull this out. Rigell is a nutball but it is a GOP year and this is a GOP drawn district. Rigell 52 – Nye 44 – Golden 4

      5th – I really like Tom Perriello. He has been an amazing Representative and has done exactly what you want a Representative to be. I have tirelessly canvassed for him though I live in the 8th. I am a huge fan. That said this is a GOP year in a GOP drawn district. Hurt 52 – Perriello 46 – Clarke 2

      9th – Boucher won’t be defeated even in a strong GOP year. This is a testament to his political skills. He even voted for the stimulus and cap and trade. Boucher 53 – Griffith 47

      11th – This is one where having any other race would mean a lot of difference. Connolly has to run this on his own. He’s going to win by a lot closer then what he should. Connolly 53 – Fimian 47.

      Thoughts:

      Losing Tom Perriello will be a huge dagger. He is absolutely young enough that he does have a political future. Sadly, there is no way that the legislature will take out some of the GOP strongholds from his district to entice him to run again. There could be an open Senate seat in 2012 or a Governor’s race in 2013 for him though. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen! He has run about as good of a race as he possibly could have run though. Hats off to Tom regardless.

      At any rate these predictions will likely result in a 7-4 GOP delegation which we know isn’t representative of the state. The creation of swing districts must be made when new districts are drawn. Boucher’s and Wolf’s districts are likely to flip once both retire so I am interested to see how those play out.  

    • mydailydrunk

      In the tri-cities area (Pamplin, Darlington Heights, Farmville – lol) it sure looks like Perriello is edging out Hurt.

      Yesterday, going down to the UPS depot in Keysville (beautiful fall foliage drive), it looked like Tom was winning that lawn sign campaign too.

      I haven’t made it down to CCH or South Boston lately, or to Lynchburg, so I can’t say what’s going on there, but will be going to pick up some dog meds at Appomattox animal hospital on 460 later today.

      For those tireless, and enthusiastic campaign workers who might be reading this, I just wanted to say a personal “thank you” for your efforts.  And a shout out to the contributors here at Blue Virginia too.