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This press release and new poll of Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District is very encouraging – incumbent Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05) leading former Rep. Tom Perriello (D) “47% to 44% on an initial ballot, within the poll’s margin of error”; and “After voters hear positive information about both candidates, the race flips, with Perriello leading McGuire 47% to 44%.” Even more impressive, “After voters hear about McGuire’s record, Perriello opens an 11-point lead, 51% to 39%.” Not bad in a district that went by 7 points for Winsome Earle-Sears last November and by 12 points for Trump in November 2024. So how can Tom Perriello flip this district? See here for video of his explanation, which I think is pretty compelling. The main thing is, if it’s a “blue wave” electorate, and if voters hear positive messaging about Perriello and accurate (aka, very negative) messaging about McGuire, there’s no doubt that Perriello can do this – with all of our help, of course.
NEW POLL: Perriello Moves Virginia’s 5th District Into a “Toss-Up” Race
New Survey Shows Race Within Margin of Error; Voters Give Perriello a Wide Lead After Hearing McGuire’s Track-Record
CHARLOTTESVILLE, VA — A new poll of Virginia’s Fifth Congressional District shows Tom Perriello in a statistical tie with incumbent John McGuire. Perriello takes a sizable lead in the poll once voters learn more about both candidates’ records. The data confirms that voters are looking to shake up Congress, and VA-05 is one of the top Democratic pickup opportunities in the country.
“Voters want costs down, corruption out, and common sense back at the wheel, and they are ready to fire McGuire for selling out,” Perriello said of the poll. “Working families understand that we are all paying more for gas and groceries, healthcare, and childcare because McGuire’s priority has been kickbacks for his dark money donors and his 100% rating from corporate lobbyists.”
The poll, conducted by Expedition Strategies, shows McGuire leading Perriello 47% to 44% on an initial ballot, within the poll’s margin of error. After voters hear positive information about both candidates, the race flips, with Perriello leading McGuire 47% to 44%. After voters hear about McGuire’s record, Perriello opens an 11-point lead, 51% to 39%.
The data suggest a seismic shift against McGuire, who won the district by 15 points just two years ago.
The pollster concludes the race “starts off as a jump ball, but the underlying fundamentals of this race favor former Congressman Tom Perriello, who has room to grow his support and the ability to define Congressman McGuire as a corrupt politician who has sold out his constituents.”
Perriello also enters the general election with the resources to capitalize. He has outraised McGuire for three consecutive quarters, holds nearly a three-to-one cash-on-hand advantage, and has built a grassroots operation across the district. However, Rep. McGuire has relied heavily on support from dark money Super PACs that do not disclose their donors.
Perriello has never accepted contributions from lobbyists or corporate PACs. He has committed to strong ethics and clean government pledges — including pledges to ban stock trading in Congress — and has earned the endorsement of End Citizens United, one of the nation’s leading anti-corruption advocacy groups.
Perriello previously represented Virginia’s Fifth District, the only Democrat in a generation to have flipped a congressional district west of Richmond. He has spent 20 years leading non-profit organizations and campaigns to increase wages, expand affordable healthcare, and protect constitutional rights. Tom has also served multiple tours as a U.S. Special Envoy, leading complex international negotiations, and served as Special Advisor to the Prosecutor of the Special Court for Sierra Leone.
METHODOLOGY: Expedition Strategies conducted 602 total interviews in VA-05 with a sample of likely 2026 general election voters. The interviews were conducted July 29 – August 1, 2026. The margin of error for overall results is ±3.99% and higher among subgroups.
