SurveyUSA: Boucher 53%-Griffith 38%

    398
    10
    SHARE

    I’m not sure what to make of SurveyUSA polls this cycle, as some of them have seemed wacky (e.g., in Virginia’s 5th CD). With that caveat, check out these new results:

    In an election for US House of Representatives in Virginia’s 9th Congressional District today, 09/30/10, incumbent Democrat Rick Boucher defeats Republican State House Majority Leader Morgan Griffith 53% to 38%, according to this latest exclusive WDBJ-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

    Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 4 weeks ago, little has changed; Boucher up 3 points, Griffith is down 2. In addition to maintaining a commanding lead among women, Boucher now leads among men and voters under age 50, groups where he previously trailed.

    If true, it looks like Rick Boucher is coasting to reelection over carpetbagger and climate change skeptic Morgan Griffith. I find it particularly interesting that Boucher is gaining ground on Griffith; could this be yet another indication of what appears to be a more favorable climate for Democrats as the election nears?  Oh, wait, hasn’t the corporate media been telling us for months that the Democrats are doomed, DOOMED they tell us?!?  Yeah, and we must always believe the corporate media!  (snark)

    • GregHabeeb

      I agree SUSA’s polls have been a little iffy this cycle.  No question Boucher is winning.  I’ll just point out one thing.  SUSA weights their polls for gender and age.  They do not weight for partisanship and they do not weight for race (one of the main factors in the skewed numbers in the 5th).

      The reason I point that out is because the previous 2 SUSA polls in the 9th had about a +5 Republican sample (again, not by weighting for partisanship but after weighting for gender/age).  This sample suddenly jumps to a +5 Democratic sample (+10 net move toward the Ds in the sample).  I don’t think anyone, even Rick Boucher himself, thinks turnout in the 9th will be +5 Democratic.

      Take these same results, and apply the previous +5 R sample and it’s about an 8 point race (slight move towards Griffith) with Boucher below 50%.  Apply a more likely +7-8 R sample and it’s solidly within the margin of error.

      I realize all of that comes off as spin but I think this particular poll (and the SUSA polls in the 5th) are perfect examples of why studying crosstabs is so important.  Here’s the one number from this poll that really matters.  Boucher continues to get 25% of Rs.  If he does that on election day, he can’t be beaten.  If that number gets down to 15% or less, it’s a toss up.

    • KathyinBlacksburg

      to assume nothing.  Certainly, as fivethirtyeight.com illustrates in a recent three-part discussion of some of his research across decades, Griffith would have a hard time overcoming any lead as great as this. But, this is just one poll. True others show Rick well ahead.  But we should assume nothing.  

    • antonio_m_elias

      I too find it odd that it’s 38% Dem, 33% R in a year like this.

      There are plenty of “Democrats” in Southwest Virginia who haven’t voted for a Democrat not named “Warner” in years…

      Now my assumption is that those same self-identified Democrats would go for the local flavor with Boucher, I’m just surprised/skeptical that 38% of voters in Southwest Virginia would still call themselves Democrats.