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PPP: 2012 Starting to Look Better and Better for Democrats

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I don’t know about you, but I like the looks of this new PPP poll:

PPP’s newest national poll finds that after a little more than 3 months in charge House Republicans have fallen so far out of favor with the American public that it’s entirely possible Democrats could take control of the House back next year.

43% of voters think that House Republicans are doing a worse job now than the Democrats did, compared to only 36% who think the GOP has brought an improvement. 19% think things are about the same. 62% of voters thinking that the Republicans have either made things worse or brought no improvement to an already unpopular Congress does not bode particularly well for the party.

Particularly amusing is the rapid move away from Republicans, if not “towards” Democrats per se, by independent voters, who have quickly soured on the reality of Republican (mis)rule. Heckuva job, Can’tor and BONEr! LOL

I’d also add that in 2012, House Democrats will be playing on much friendlier turf, and also in a much more favorable political environment, than in 2010. For starters, many of the seats Republicans picked up in 2010 are in districts carried by President Obama in 2008 (see Democracy Corps for more on that subject). Those seats are all highly vulnerable in 2012. Second, after two years of Teapublican threats to shut down the government if they don’t get 100% of their demand; to allow a disastrous default by the United States on its debt, again if they don’t get their way; and to push its extreme social, anti-labor, anti-environmental, and pro-corporate agenda; it’s highly likely that Democrats will be fired up and independents sick of the extremism. Finally, with the “max turnout” of a presidential year, including among many Democratic “base” voters who stayed home last November, and with the economy continuing to recover, there is basically zero chance that Republicans will recreate the unique “enthusiasm gap” they enjoyed in their 2010 “wave” election year. Sure, the Donald Trumps of the world will continue to play on racist charges that Barack Obama wasn’t born in the United States, despite absolutely conclusive evidence to the contrary, but that’s only likely to fire up a small percentage of the far-far-far-right wingers, while turning off just about everyone else.

Obviously, things could change greatly between now and November 2012. But for now, it’s looking a lot better to be a Democrat than a Republican running in 2012.

  • Obama’s reelection? It sure looks like it:

    Donald Trump will “probably” run as an independent candidate for U.S. President in 2012 if he does not receive the Republican party’s nomination, he told the Wall Street Journal in a video interview on Monday.

    […]

    Mr. Trump’s candidacy would complicate matters for the GOP as it looks to front someone who can unite the fractious party and mount a serious challenge to President Obama’s reelection bid. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC poll recently found Mr. Trump tied for second place with former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee among likely voters in a GOP primary. Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor who moved a step closer to formally declaring his own candidacy Monday, is still the frontrunner, though not by a wide margin.

    “I think the Republicans are very concerned that I [may] run as an independent,” Mr. Trump said. His support is highest among the conservative wing of the party, not least because he is among the so-called “birthers” who doubt that President Obama in fact was born in the U.S. “It’s a very important issue,” Mr. Trump said of demanding that President Obama show his birth certificate, which has separately been reviewed by the media and deemed legitimate. “I’m not ashamed of having raised that issue.”

  • (Charlie Cook, maybe?) out there had an interesting observation that independents no longer are voting FOR a party or a policy, they are voting to punish or remove a party from power.  (Assuming that they vote at all.)  The problem with this is that both parties have historical read a victory as a mandate, and act accordingly, which is why we live in such volatile political times.  I’m not sure I completely agree with it, and it doesn’t apply to the party faithful (and I add the caveat that most “independents” are party faithful, but it’s usually more agreeable to think you aren’t taking an actual side, even if it is only rhetorically)  but it’s worth thinking about.

  • blogsrdumb

    While President Obama may provide coat-tails in some districts Republicans (and Democrats) across the country (and here in Virginia) are drawing district boundaries that in most cases protect the 63 seat Republican majority. Republicans have the upper hand in the state houses and Governor’s mansions across the country.

    http://topics.nytimes.com/topi

  • Jim B

    As a loyal democrat, I will go to the polls and hold my nose and vote for the democratic candidates because they are not standing up for much especially Obama. It seems every time there is an important issue facing the country I can’t help but think “will he fold”. I am already on welfare as some republicans call SS so Obama can’t do much to me, but I am concerned for other people when he announces his deficit plan.

  • Mike1987

    I do think the pundits and prognosticators may not be accounting for a pissed-off electorate in Wisconsin, Ohio, Main, New Hampshire, and now perhaps Washington State and Florida. I do believe that we need to focus on our local elections and take back from the republicans the state legislators where significant policies are effecting people’s everyday life.