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Dems Need to Fight for the 18 Virginia House of Delegates “Kaine Districts”

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Thanks to the folks at Daily Kos for putting together this spreadsheet of Virginia House districts by their 2012 U.S. Senate and Presidential results. As you can see (click on image to “embiggen”), there are 16 incumbent Virginia House of Delegates Republicans sitting in “Obama districts,” and 18 in “Kaine districts.” The 18 “Kaine districts” are:

#2 (59.4% Kaine): Del. Mark Dudenhefer vs. Michael Futrell

#12 (54.2% Kaine): Del. Joseph Yost vs. James Harder

#13 (55.4% Kaine): Del. Bob Marshall vs. Atif M Qarni

#21 (53.5% Kaine): Del. Ron Villanueva vs. Susan Hippen

#23 (51.0% Kaine): Del. Bill Howell vs. UNCONTESTED

#31 (53.9% Kaine): Del. Scott Lingamfelter vs. Jeremy McPike

#32 (53.5% Kaine): Del. Tag Greason vs. Elizabeth Miller

#34 (52.8% Kaine): Del. Barbara Comstock vs. Kathleen Murphy

#42 (54.3% Kaine): Del. Dave Albo vs. Ed Deitsch

#50 (54.4% Kaine): Del. Jackson Miller vs. Richard Cabellos

#51 (52.2% Kaine): Del. Rich Anderson vs. Reed Heddleston

#67 (55.4% Kaine): Del. Jim LeMunyon vs. Hung Nguyen

#84 (50.6% Kaine): Glenn Davis vs. Brent N McKenzie

#85 (51.1% Kaine): Scott Taylor vs. Bill Dale

#86 (61.4% Kaine): Del. Tom Rust vs. Jennifer Boysko

#87 (56.9% Kaine): Del. David Ramadan vs. John Bell

#93 (58.3% Kaine): Del. Mike Watson vs. Monty Mason

#94 (53.5% Kaine): Del. David Yancey vs. Robert Farinholt

Given that Democrats currently have just 32 out of 100 House of Delegates seats, if we could win all of these “Kaine districts” back, we could get to a 50/50 split. No, I don’t think we can win them all back in one cycle, or even two cycles, but given the changing demographics of Virginia, it’s almost inevitable that we will win them eventually — the only question being “how long?” This November, let’s make sure we make a good start at it.

P.S. Of course, as I pointed out the other day, these candidates need to be adequately funded to have a serious chance of winning.

P.P.S. Also, check out Not Larry Sabato’s excellent series on Virginia’s House districts.

  • Elaine in Roanoke

    I heartily second the urging of Lowell that people help fund these campaigns to increase the odds of winning. For example, here are three races I have a special interest in:

    Jennifer Boysko vs. Tom Rust: This race is very winnable if Jennifer gets the support she needs. According to VPAP, Rust has $232,000 on hand at last reporting. Jennifer has $99,700. Rust needs to retire far away from Richmond.

    James Harder vs. Joseph Yost: As of the last report, Harder had $30,300 on hand, while Yost had $96,500. The key to winning this district is turning out the vote in Blacksburg. That will take money.

    Freeda Cathcart vs. Chris Head: (This race is a tough one. The district is definitely a Republican one. No Kaine or Obama district here, but Cathcart is getting excellent support from Democrats in the Roanoke Valley.) She has $46,000 on hand, and Head has $57,800.

    The Republicans in the districts listed in the diary will get help from big money. The Democrats need to get contributions from the grassroots. Enough small contributions can overcome that big money.  

  • Maurerguy

    These are not Obama or Kaine districts, but they are districts where Tea Party candidates beat longtime Republican incumbents May and Sherwood. Full disclosure — I am the Independent candidate in the 29th, where there is no Democratic candidate, so I am the only alternative to the Tea Party candidate. (I am a longtime progressive activist, former Executive Director of the Virginia Housing Coalition.)

    There is a Democrat in the 33rd, Mary Daniel, who is already an elected official and a very credible candidate.

    These races should be considered, as the Tea Party has created openings that may not occur again.  

  • jack russell

    We had some young kid canvassing for Barbara Comstock.  At this point, I think they are just trying to do voter ID – figure out who their strong supporters are.

    Natually I told the person that I would never vote for her – my only regret is that I didn’t call my wife to come down and let her give the kid a piece of her mind as well.

    But it wasn’t until I read this diary that I even knew who it was that was running against her.