by Thomas Bowman of the Competitive Commonwealth Fund
Something crazy happened yesterday in the Kansas fourth Congressional District.
KS04 is a solid GOP seat that went for Trump by 31%. Yesterday, it only voted for GOP by 7%. Sure, Democrats lost it as about everyone expected, but that’s a still a +24% swing in favor of Democrats.
“Mr. Estes is the state treasurer and tied to the deeply unpopular Gov. Sam Brownback, but Republicans are worried that the Democratic shift in the seat could reflect a larger backlash against President Trump that will cost them seats in next year’s midterm elections. Tuesday’s move to the left was similar to those of a large number of seats in the 2006 Democratic wave.”
Let me put this in context of Virginia’s elections and our work at the Competitive Commonwealth Fund: if a +24 point Democratic swing happens in Virginia, Democrats would have 95 of 100 House districts.
Yes, you read that right. 95 House Districts controlled by the Virginia Democratic Party.
Except there are still 18 VA House races with no Democratic candidate. That’s 18 races where Democrats are on track to forfeit without even trying.
The Competitive Commonwealth fund has a lot more remaining, but if anybody asks why we are playing around with these deep red districts, or why they should donate to us, or why they should just run for office, we will remind them of KS04.