Home 2017 Races New Virginia Poll: Northam 42%-Gillespie 37%; Fairfax 43%-Vogel 38%; Herring 45%-Adams 39%

New Virginia Poll: Northam 42%-Gillespie 37%; Fairfax 43%-Vogel 38%; Herring 45%-Adams 39%


To date, there have been two reputable/high-quality polls since the June 13 Virginia primary — Quinnipiac University, which had Ralph Northam up 8 points (47%-39%) over Ed Gillespie; and Monmouth University, which had the race tied. So those two average out to a four-point lead for Northam. Now, we have a new poll from VCU’s Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs which has Northam with a 5-point lead (42%-37%) over Gillespie; very much in sync with the 4-point-lead average of the other two post-primary polls. As always, I’d take these polls with a grain of salt, given the questionable track record polling has had here in Virginia in recent years. With that, here are a few highlights.

  • Other than the 42%-37% lead for Northam among Virginia likely voters, “Libertarian candidate Cliff Hyra polled at 6 percent, while 13 percent of voters remained undecided in the governor’s race.”
  • Not surprisingly, Northam/Fairfax/Herring lead big in northern Virginia while Gillespie/Vogel/Adams lead in the western, rural parts of the state.
  • This is bizarre, given that Republicans offer nothing to people struggling to find a job: “Those who are not employed were more likely to support the Republican candidate and those who are employed part-time were more likely to support the Democrat.”
  • “Democrat Justin Fairfax holds a five-point lead in the lieutenant governor’s race, with 43 percent of likely voters supporting him and 38 percent supporting Republican Jill Vogel. Fifteen percent of likely voters remain undecided. “
  • “In the attorney general race, 45 percent of likely voters favor Democrat Mark Herring and 39 percent support Republican John Adams. Fifteen percent of likely voters are undecided.”
  • “A plurality (48 percent) of likely voters responded that they would rather the Democrats control the General Assembly. Forty-one percent said they would prefer Republican control.”


  • From the DPVA:

    DPVA Calls on Ed Gillespie to Immediately Cancel Campaign Event with Disgraced South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson

    Wilson Stands at the Center of a Massive Corruption Scandal that Has Rocked the Palmetto State

    Richmond, Va. — In a shocking development, Ed Gillespie recently announced that he will campaign with South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson — a politician who meddled in a major corruption investigation of one of his key political allies.

    “Only Ed Gillespie would think it is okay to campaign with someone accused of abusing his power,” said DPVA spokesperson Kevin Donohoe. “If what was reported is true, Alan Wilson rigged the system in his favor and betrayed the trust of his constituents. Ed Gillespie should be condemning this behavior — not inviting him on the campaign trail in Virginia. If he has any ounce of integrity left, Gillespie will immediately cancel his campaign appearance with Alan Wilson.”

    Wilson currently stands at the center of a massive political scandal that has roiled South Carolina politics and raised troubling questions about whether he unethically shut down an investigation in an effort to shield a close political ally. The Post and Courier reported this week that Wilson “enlisted the help of a central figure in the Statehouse corruption probe in an attempt to sideline the case’s special prosecutor just as the investigation was about to zero in on Wilson’s close allies.” According to ethics experts, Wilson’s efforts to sideline the special prosecutor investigating Statehouse corruption are “disturbing” and “highly unusual.” Just recently, the FBI joined the Statehouse corruption investigation.

    Gillespie’s decision to campaign with a swamp-monster attorney general raises serious doubts about his own commitment to government ethics. Although he has tried to style himself as a good government champion, Gillespie has spent most of his career making millions representing special interests in Washington, D.C. — a chequered career that led The Richmond Times-Dispatch’s Jeff Schapiro to call him a “well-fed alligator” in the D.C. swamp.