Home 2018 Elections New Virginia Poll: Big “Blue Wave” Forming for November Elections; Dem Voters...

New Virginia Poll: Big “Blue Wave” Forming for November Elections; Dem Voters Much More Enthused; Dem “Generic” Candidate Up in VA01, VA02, VA06, VA07, VA10

Virginia voters also strongly approve of the Dream Act, disapprove of offshore oil drilling.

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See below for highlights and a press release from the Wason Center for Public Policy at CNU.

  • Virginia voters disapprove of Congressional Republicans by a 28%-60% (-32 points) margin. For Democrats, the numbers are almost even, at 42%-47% (-5 points). For Trump, it’s 35%-60% (-25 points).
  • Virginia Democratic voters are more enthusiastic about the November elections than Republicans. 84% of Dems say they are “very” (60%) or “somewhat” (24%) enthusiastic, compared to just 45% of Republicans saying “very” and 33% saying “somewhat.” Liberals (69%) are 21 points more likely than conservatives (48%) to say they are “very excited” about voting this November.
  • The “generic ballot” question has Democrats up 12 points, 45%-33%, over Republicans for Congress. Adding in “leaners,” it’s 54%-31%, which doesn’t seem right to me (e.g., I get how Dems could go up 9 points, from 45% to 54%, but how could Republicans go DOWN, from 33% to 31%, after leaners are added in?). And by a 51%-38% (13-point) margin, voters say they want to see Democrats in charge of Congress after the November elections.
  • By CD, this breaks down as follows: In VA01, the Dem is up 51%-30% (that’s incredible if true, btw, but VERY hard to believe the Dem lead is that big); in VA02, the Dem is up 44%-39% (not sure how the Dem can only be up 5 points in CD and 21 points in much “redder” VA01, but 4 points seems plausible); in VA05, the Republican is up 48%-40% (yeah, that makes no sense at all vis-a-vis VA01 or VA02); in VA-06, the Dem is up 46%-43% (also very hard to believe, but if true, we’re talking blue tidal wave territory in Virginia); in Dave Brat’s VA07, the Dem is up 59%-31% (!); in super-red VA09, the Republican is only up 4 points (43%-39%); and in Barbara Comstock’s VA10, the Dem is up 10 points (44%-34%). Bye bye Barbara Comstock! LOL
  • By a 54%-37% margin, voters disapprove of the Trump administration’s removal of the ban on offshore drilling in Virginia.
  • By a 71%-25% margin, voters approve of the Dream Act.
  • Voters are closely divided (45%-47%) on the GOP tax cut bill.
  • By a 50%-42% margin, voters believe the Trump campaign “coordinated with the Russian government to interfere in the 2017 presidential election.”

Blue Wave looms in Virginia’s 2018 congressional midterms; 50% of voters believe Trump campaigners colluded with Russia

NEWPORT NEWS, VA – Energized by backlash to President Trump, Virginia Democrats head into the 2018 midterm elections with significant advantages, according to a new voter survey by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. “The question is no longer whether there is a Blue Wave coming, but rather, how high the storm surge will get,” said Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center.

Significantly more Democrats (60%) than Republicans (45%) are ‘very enthusiastic’ about voting in November. Voters prefer Democrats to Republicans on the generic ballot (45%-33%) and want Democrats to control Congress after the election (51%-38%). Those gaps widen among likely voters. “This enthusiasm gap suggests several Republican House seats could be in play,” said Bitecofer, singling out the 1st, 2nd, 7th, and 10th districts.

Half of the voters surveyed (50%) say they believe individuals in the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government to interfere in the 2016 election, while 42% said they do not believe any coordination happened.  Party identification is a strong determinant, with 81% of Republicans rejecting the idea of collusion and 81% of Democrats believing it. Independents are evenly split.

On issues, Virginia voters overwhelmingly support the Dream Act (71%-25%), which provides a pathway to legal status or citizenship for children brought into the country illegally by their parents. They strongly oppose drilling for oil off Virginia’s coast (54%-37%), a ban on which was recently lifted by President Trump. And they are evenly divided on the recently enacted Tax Cut and Reform Bill (45% approve-47% disapprove).

“From the enthusiasm gap to the Dream Act to collusion with the Russians, a sharp partisan divide is evident among Virginia voters,” said Quentin Kidd, the Center’s director.  “Nine months out, it looks like we’re setting up for a base election with Democrats holding an upper hand.”