I’m really not sure what to make of super-early polls like this one by Mason-Dixon, given that such high percentages of Virginians don’t really know who the candidates are and haven’t focused on the 2017 races yet. For instance, in this poll only 25% of registered Virginia voters know Democratic gubernatorial candidate and Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam well enough to form a positive or negative impression, and just 21% in the case of Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Tom Perriello. On the Republican side, the comparable figures are 38% for Ed Gillespie, 20% for Corey Stewart, 5% for Frank Wagner and 2% for Denver Riggleman.
For that reason, I would take the Mason-Dixon results with a huge grain of salt. For the record, though, the top-line numbers are as follows.
Gillespie 44%-Northam 41%
Gillespie 45%-Perriello 36%
Northam 45%-Stewart 37%
Perriello 40%-Stewart 38%