UPDATE (10:41 pm): One last comment from the evening comes from Ben Tribbett – “We won’t know for sure for a couple days but appears most likely outcome is Democrats win VA House with a 51-49 majority.”
UPDATE (10:23 pm): With 99.61% of precincts reporting, just for the record: Ralph Northam defeated “Enron Ed” Gillespie and his despicable, disgraceful, Trumpist campaign from hell by 9 points (53.9%-44.95%); Justin Fairfax defeated Jill “Government-Forced, Mandatory Transvaginal Ultrasounds” Vogel by 5.4 points (52.7%-47.3%); and Mark Herring was reelected as AG over John “Not THAT John Adams” Adams by 6.5 points (53.2%-46.7%). An absolute trouncing, smackdown, demolition, whatever else you want to call it, and it’s largely thanks to the Orange Gropenfuhrer and his cowardly Republican lackeys and bootlicker (Paul Ryan, Mitch McConnell, etc.). So how’s that all working out for you, a**holes? It will be VERY interesting to see how Congressional Republicans process this one, whether they change their deplorable behavior, or whether they prefer to suffer the same fate in November 2018 as their Virginia brethren just suffered in November 2017. They can start by ditching their insane, extremist policy agenda – tax cuts for the rich, gutting the Endangered Species Act, you name it. Also, a bunch of them, such as our own Bob BADlatte, might really want to “spend more time with their families” and take that well-earned retirement. Just sayin’…
UPDATE (9:38 pm): Ben Tribbett tweets, “Major projection, the House of Delegates will not be decided tonight, and will go into recounts to decide control”
UPDATE (9:10 pm): Ben Tribbett tweets, “Wendy Gooditis has defeated Randy Minchew, 13th Democratic pickup of the night. 47D, 44R, 9 seats left to call.”
UPDATE (9:02 pm): Ben Tribbett tweets, “.
@ChrisHurstVA wins- 12th Democratic pickup of night- now 46D, 43R and 11 seats not yet called.” In HD-40, Democrat Donte Tanner leads Republican Del. Tim Hugo 13,305-13,180 with 21/23 precincts reporting – just absentees and provisionals outstanding, which means it looks like a huge upset here is highly likely.
UPDATE (8:56 pm): With 87% of precincts counted, it’s now Northam by nearly 8 points, Fairfax by more than 4 points and Herring by nearly 6 points. Still plenty of “blue” to come in, too. By the way, congratulations to Erik Gutshall and Monique O’Grady, elected to Arlington’s County Board and School Board, respectively. And it’s looking good for Courtney Lynch in Henrico County, as she currently leads for Board of Supervisors (Brookland District) by 9,948-8,122 with 13/16 precincts reporting.
UPDATE (8:52 pm): Ben Tribbett has called both Justin Fairfax for LG and Mark Herring for AG, and I agree – congratulations to both! Ben has also called VanValkenburg, Debra Rodman and Kelly Fowler, which gives Democrats 10 (ten!) House of Delegates pickups so far tonight. Ben adds, “45D, 43 R with 12 seats left to go- real chance of House of Delegates flipping” Un. Be. Lieve. Able.
UPDATE (8:40 pm): Just got distracted by a phone call from my friend Atif Qarni, definitely one of the heroes of this cycle and a rising star in PW County (and beyond)? Anyway, back to the updates on this historic, amazing “Blue Virginia” night. Could Kelly Fowler (D) actually beat Del. Ron Villanueva in HD-21? It sure looks possible right now, as Fowler leads Villanueva 9,614-8,348 with 15/20 precincts reporting. Could Democrat Larry Barnett defeat Del. Roxann Robinson in HD-27? Quite possibly, as Robinson leads by just 4 (four!) votes, with 1 precinct (and a recount)? remaining. Could Democrat Donte Tanner defeat Del. Tim Hugo (R)? Well, right now, Tanner leads 10,728-10,145 with 18/23 precincts reporting! Could Dawn Adams (D) defeat Del. Manoli Loupassi in HD-68? Right now, Adams leads Loupassi 16,717-16,643 with 23/29 precincts reporting. Could Schuyler T. VanValkenburg (D) defeat Edward S. Whitlock III (R)? Right now, VanValkenburg leads 14,297-13,211 with 25/28 precincts reporting. Could Debra H. Rodman (D) defeat Del. John O’Bannon (R)? Sure looks like it, as Rodman leads O’Bannon 13,897-12,972 with 22/23 precincts reporting! Could Veronica R. Coleman (D) defeat Glenn R. Davis, Jr. (R) in HD-84? Right now Coleman leads 8,697-7,991 with 15/18 precincts reporting. Could Cheryl B. Turpin (D) defeat Del. Rocky Holcomb (R) in HD-85? Right now, Turpin leads 10,020-9,711 with 15/18 precincts reporting. Could Shelly A. Simonds defeat Del. David E. Yancey (R) in HD-94? Right now, Simonds leads 7,701-7,368 with 15/24 precincts reporting.
UPDATE (8:30 pm): With 73% of precincts reporting, it’s now Northam by 6 points; Fairfax 51%-Vogel 49% and Herring 52%-Adams 48%. Those leads should only widen as the night goes by. As for the House of Delegates, Wendy Gooditis (D) continues to lead Del. Randy Minchew (R) in HD-10, 12,599-10,426, with 24/30 precincts reporting. Chris Hurst (D) leads Del. Joseph Yost (R) 7,507-4,683 in HD-12 with 20/35 precincts reporting. In HD-21, with 15/20 precincts reporting, it’s Kelly Fowler (D) 9,614-Del. Ron Villaneuva (R) 8,348.
UPDATE (8:22 pm): With 66.6% of precincts reporting, Ralph Northam has padded his lead over race-baiting “Enron Ed” to 5 points. For LG, it’s Justin Fairfax 50.69%-Jill Vogel 49.24%; for AG, it’s Mark Herring 51.28%-Adams 48.65%. As for the House of Delegates, Ben Tribbett tweets, “Hala Ayala has defeated Rich Anderson for 8th Democratic pickup of the night.” And several other pickup possibilities are out there – amazing.
UPDATE (8:18 pm): Waldo Jaquith tweets, “Democrats—led in this effort by
@tomperriello—are flipping seats left and right in the Virginia House tonight.” Let me just take a moment to say how amazing Tom Perriello’s efforts were in this election, and also how unusual – when is the last time you can remember a defeated candidate brushing himself off, getting up, going out and working just as hard for OTHERS – including his primary opponent – as he would have for himself? And you know what? Even if there’s some self interest in that, who cares? It’s still amazing. Thank you Tom Perriello, a huge “winner” in this election cycle.
UPDATE (8:16 pm): Ben Tribbett tweets, “Elizabeth Guzman has defeated Scott Lingamfelter, 5th Democratic pickup of night. 37D, 33R, 30 seats left to go.” and “Kathy Tran has won the open 42nd seat, 6th Democratic pickup of night. 38D, 33R and 29 seats left to go.”
UPDATE (8:14 pm): Nate Cohn tweets, “Ralph Northam is the projected winner in Virginia, according to the AP. He is on track to win by a decisive, 8 point margin, according to our estimates.” Congratulations to Governor-elect Northam!
— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 8, 2017
UPDATE (8:13 pm): Ha, RTD reporter Patrick Wilson tweets, “The AP has called Democratic Socialist Lee Carter the winner over GOP Del. Jackson Miller in Manassas.”
UPDATE (8:07 pm): Back to the House of Delegates, Chris Hurst (D) is leading Del. Joseph Yost (R) in HD-12 by 3,811-2,763, with 10/35 precincts counted. Democrat Kelly Fowler leads slimeball Del. Ron Villanueva (R) 7,284-6,589 with 12/20 precincts reporting in HD-21. Oh, and so much for Republican Subba Kolla being competitive against Del. John Bell (D); Bell is crushing Kolla by a 62%-38% margin with 27/29 precincts reporting. Ben Tribbett tweets, “Elizabeth Guzman has defeated Scott Lingamfelter, 5th Democratic pickup of night. 37D, 33R, 30 seats left to go.” And Dave Weigel tweets, “Dem gains in the Virginia House of Delegates are at the far upper end of projections. Just a brutal kicking for Rs all over NoVa.” Wow.
UPDATE (8:03 pm): With 46% of precincts reporting, it’s Northam 551,551-Gillespie 508,996; Fairfax 533,310-Vogel 525,062; Herring 536,797-Adams 520,442. Nate Cohn reports, “Massive turnout. Running 8 percent higher ahead of our estimates, which were 8 percent ahead of 13! Could be heading for nearly 2.7 million votes.” Cohn adds, “It’s Northam’s night,” and “Our best guess is that Mr. Northam is currently on track to win the election.”
UPDATE (7:57 pm): Whoa, another Democratic pickup, David Reid (D) 15,530-Del Tag Greason (R) 10,828 with 23 of 24 precincts reporting in HD-32! And another whoa – Democrat Lee Carter appears to have defeated far-right Del. Jackson Miller in HD-50 (with 15/16 precincts reporting, Carter leads 10,850-9,037). Amazing. And if all that’s not good enough news, it looks like Hala Ayala (D) is going to beat Del. Rich Anderson (R), as she leads 11,529-9,936 with 18/22 precincts reporting. Something tells me other Democratic House of Delegates pickups are coming before this night is out – hold onto your hats! (Ben Tribbett tweets: “There is going to be a huge Democratic pickup in the House tonight if early returns hold.”)
UPDATE (7:52 pm): With 21 of 30 precincts reporting, Democrat Wendy Gooditis leads Del. Randy Minchew in HD-10 by a 6,147-4,499 margin. Go Gooditis! And in HD-27, with 21/22 precincts reporting, it’s Larry V. Barnett (D) leading Roxann L. Robinson (R) 8,573-8,501. That would be a great victory for the blue team right there! Also, in HD-31, Elizabeth Guzman (D) is beating Del. Scott Lingamfelter (R) 10,416-8,617 with 18/26 precincts reporting. Not looking good for Lingamfelter and his hate-filled campaign.
UPDATE (7:48 pm): As expected, Jennifer Carroll Foy (78%-22%) is crushing her Republican opponent for House of Delegates in the 2nd district with 9/23 precincts reporting. Congratulations to Delegate-elect Jennifer Carroll Foy! 🙂 And in HD-13, Democrat Danica Roem leads far-right Republican nutjob Del. “Sideshow Bob” Marshall 9,656-8,410 with 17 of 20 precincts reporting. This one looks OVER, with most provisional ballots remaining. Congratulations to the first transgender Virginia delegate – history is made! 🙂
UPDATE (7:45 pm): With 29% of precincts reporting, it’s Northam 50.54%-Gillespie 48.38%; Vogel 50.19%-Fairfax 49.76%; Herring 50.07%-Adams 49.88%. Wait until the deep-blue areas start coming in. Ben Tribbett tweets, “Calling the Governor’s race at 7:34-
@RalphNortham will be the 73rd Governor of Virginia.” I have no reason to disagree with that call!
UPDATE (7:41 pm): With 627 precincts (24.4%) now reporting, it’s Northam 50.92%-Gillespie 48.00%; Fairfax 50.01%-Vogel 49.94%; Herring 50.16%-Adams 49.78%. Interesting how similar the three Dems’ percentages are; looks like most people these days vote straight “R” or straight “D,” not much ticket splitting at the top, anyway. We’ll see about House of Delegates races…
UPDATE (7:35 pm): With 497 precincts reporting, it’s Northam 50.14%-Gillespie 48.78%; Vogel 51.03%-Fairfax 48.91%; Adams 50.35%-Herring 49.59%. Almost nothing yet from Fairfax County, Richmond City, Charlottesville and other deep-blue areas. Dave Wasserman tweets, “This is looking like a pretty early night, folks,” as “illespie’s getting the support level he needs, but not the turnout he needs” in deep-red parts of Virginia. Sad, eh?
UPDATE (7:30 pm): With 287 precincts reporting, it’s Gillespie 49.87%-Northam 49.05%; Vogel 52.02%-Fairfax 47.92%; Adams 51.54%- Herring 48.41%. Looks like Chesterfield County went by a slim margin (49.90%-48.95%) to Gillespie; compare to 49%-41% Cooch four years ago. That doesn’t bode well at all for Gillespie. According to Nate Cohn of the NY Times, “At this stage, it is fair to say that Northam has the advantage. Not enough information to make a call, though.” His model has Northam +4.2 points.
UPDATE (7:22 pm): With 69 of 2,566 precincts reporting, it’s Ralph Northam 50.05%- Ed Gillespie 48.82%; Jill Vogel 50.35%-Justin Fairfax 49.59%; and John Adams 50.46%-Mark Herring 49.47%.
UPDATE (7:14 pm): CNN exit poll info — “Vote among women in Virginia via
@CNN exit polls –> 2017: Northam +19 2016: Clinton +17 2014: Warner +12 2013: McAuliffe +9″ Also, from @alexhoneker: “CNN Exit Poll | VIRGINIA Race: White (68%): 59-40 Gillespie Black (20%): 86-13 Northam Hispanic (6%): 62-35 Northam Education: College grad (59%): 58-41 Northam Non-college grad (41%): 55-43 Gillespie” @owillis “exit has northam at 40% w white voters. hrc had 35%, mcauliffe had 36%” @BenWessel “Prelim exits have @RalphNortham winning an eye-popping 66% of #youthvote (under-30). Literally same % that Obama got in 2008. So proud of @NextGenAmerica‘s whole team.”
The main races I’ll be focusing on, other than the statewides (Governor, LG, AG), are the following 19 competitive House of Delegates races: District 2 (Jennifer Carroll Foy vs. Mike Makee), District 10 (Wendy Gooditis vs. Del. Randy Minchew), District 12 (Chris Hurst vs. Del. Joseph Yost), District 13 (Danica Roem vs. Del. “Sideshow Bob” Marshall), District 21 (Kelly Fowler vs. Del. Ron Villaneuva), District 31 (Elizabeth Guzman vs. Del. Scott Lingamfelter), District 32 (David Reid vs. Del. Tag Greason), District 40 (Donte Tanner vs. Del. Tim Hugo), District 42 (Kathy Tran vs. Lolita Mancheno-Smoak), District 50 (Lee Carter vs. Del. Jackson Miller), District 51 (Hala Ayala vs. Del. Rich Anderson), District 67 (Karrie Delaney vs. Del. Jim LeMunyon), District 68 (Dawn Adams vs. Del. Manoli Loupassi), District 72 (Schuyler VanValkenburg vs. Eddie Whitlock), District 73 (Debra Rodman vs. Del. John O’Bannon), District 85 (Cheryl Turpin vs. Del. Rocky Holcomb), District 87 (Del. John Bell vs. Subba Kolla), District 93 (Del. Mike Mullin vs. Heather Cordasco), District 94 (Shelly Simonds vs. Del. David Yancey), District 100 (Willie Randall vs. Del. Rob Bloxom).
Heading into election day, the consensus seems to be that Democrats will pick up open-seat, “Hillary Clinton Districts” 2 and 42; hold Districts 87 and 93; battle it out in Districts 12, 13, 31, 32, 67, 94 and possibly in Districts 21, 40, 50, 51, 72, 73 and 85. I’d say a good night for Democrats would be sweeping all three statewide races (we’d better not lose any of them), plus picking up 3 or more House of Delegates seats. A very good night for Democrats would be sweeping the three statewides plus picking up 5-6 House of Delegates seats. An excellent night would get us to a pickup of 7+ House of Delegates seats, while a “wave” election would see Virginia Dems picking up 10 or more House seats.
Finally, here are a few numbers to keep in mind as results start coming in tonight:
1) Statewide turnout in 2013 was 2.2 million, with 306k in solidly blue Fairfax County, 108k in purple Virginia Beach City, 105k in purplish/red Chesterfield County, 104k in increasingly blue Henrico County, 97k in blue-leaning Prince William County, 90k in purple-ish Loudoun County, 68k in deep-blue Arlington County, 63k in purple Chesapeake City, 59k in deep-blue Richmond City, 46k in deep-blue Norfolk City, 42k in solidly blue Newport News City, 41k in deep-blue Alexandria, 39k in deep-red Hanover County, 37k in deep-blue Hampton City, 34k in solidly red Stafford County, 32k in solidly red Spotsylvania County, 31k in strongly red Roanoke County, 26k in deep-blue Portsmouth City, 24k in blue-leaning Suffolk City, 22k in blue-leaning Roanoke City, and 22k in deep-red Rockingham County.
2) See here for a Google doc with turnout from the June 2017 Virginia Democratic and Republican primaries, plus turnout ratios by jurisdiction. It will be interesting to see how the ratios hold up (or not) tonight, both statewide (in June, 50% more voters opted for Democratic over Republican ballots) and in specific jurisdictions (e.g., will Democrats see a 5.5:1 ratio in Arlington County? a 7:1:1 ratio in Richmond City? a 2.4:1 ratio in Fairfax County? a 3.9:1 ratio in Norfolk? a 3.6:1 ratio in Albemarle County? will Republicans see big ratios – and big numbers – in places like Hanover County, Stafford County, Spotsylvania County, and of course in deep-red Southwest Virginia and Shenandoah counties like Tazewell, Rockingham, Shenandoah, Roanoke County, etc.?)
3) The latest polling heading into election day can be seen here: Northam up 9 points in Quinnipiac University’s final poll; Northam up 5 points in Fox’s and the Washington Post/Schar School’s final poll; Northam up 6 points in CNU’s final poll; tied in Rasmussen and Roanoke College final polls, etc. Clearly, someone’s going to be very wrong here and others are going to be very right. Stay tuned…
4) As Arlington Dem extraordinaire Matt Weinstein points out:
Gentle reminder to all my Virginia politicos with short memories and non-Virginia political neophytes watching tonight’s results that the results will come out in this order:
1. Rural Virginia (dark red)
2. Hampton Roads (purple)
3. Richmond and the burbs (purple)
4. Arlington/Alexandria (dark blue)
5. Loudoun and Prince William (light blue)
6. Fairfax (blue)