Maps: 2019 Virginia House of Delegates, State Senate Races

Courtesy of Virginia college student, DecisionDeskHQ pundit/analyst, and Democrat Chaz Nuttycombe, check out the following maps for the 2019 Virginia House of Delegates and State Senate elections. A few highlights from the maps (see below) are:

• Per Chaz, “at the moment there are 3 Likely R seats, 1 Lean R seat, 1 Tilt R seat, 3 Toss-Up seats, 1 Lean D seat” in the Virginia House of Delegates.
• But of course, it’s still early and a bunch are uncontested right now (HD1-HD6, HD9, HD10-HD13, HD15-HD17, HD19-HD23, HD27, HD29-HD32, HD34-HD39, HD41-HD49, HD51-HD60, HD64-HD69, HD71-HD93, HD95-HD100), many of which WILL be contested.
• For now, though, the House of Delegates districts that Chaz has as competitive are: HD14 (“Likely R” – currently held by Republican Danny Marshall; district won by Corey Stewart with 51.0%), HD26 (“Lean R” – currently held by Republican Tony Wilt; district won by Tim Kaine with 50.0%), HD27 (“Toss-Up” – currently held by Republican Roxann Robinson; district held by Tim Kaine with 54.1%), HD28 (“Toss-Up” – currently held by Republican Bob Thomas; district won by Tim Kaine with 54.9%), HD33 (“Likely R” – currently held by Republican Dave LaRock; district won by Corey Stewart with 50.4%), HD40 (“Tilt R” – currently held by Republican Tim Hugo; district won by Tim Kaine with 58.1%), HD62 (“Toss-Up” – currently held by Republican Riley Ingram; district won by Tim Kaine with 52.6%), HD91 (“Likely R” – currently held by Republican Gordon Helsel; district won by Tim Kaine with 49.7%), HD94 (“Lean D” – currently held by Republican David Yancey, who won the election in 2017 after having his name pulled out of a bowl; district won by Tim Kaine with 58.5%).
• Other House of Delegates seats that certainly could be competitive include HD76 (currently held by Republican Chris Jones), HD83 (currently held by Republican Chris Stolle), HD84 (currently held by Republican Glenn Davis), and HD100 (currently held by Republican Rob Bloxom).
• We’ll see if Chaz throws some Democratic-held House of Delegates seats into competitive categories after Republicans throw their hats in the ring, but note that all the Democratic-held seats were won (most of them big time) by Tim Kaine on November 6.
• As for the State Senate, Chaz at the moment has it as 1 “Toss-Up” (SD8 – currently held by Republican Bill DeSteph; district won by Tim Kaine with 51.3%), 1 “Tilt D” (SD12 – currently held by Republican Siobhan Dunnavant; district won by Tim Kaine with 56.5%) and 2 “Likely D”s (SD10 – currently held by Republican Glen Sturtevant; district won by Tim Kaine with 60.4%) and SD13 – currently held by Republican Dick Black; district won by Tim Kaine with 58.3%).
• I’d also toss in a few other Senate districts, currently with no declared candidates against the incumbents, as potentially competitive with strong Democratic challengers: SD7 (currently held by Frank Wagner – R; district won by Tim Kaine with 55.6%), SD17 (currently held by Bryce Reeves – R; district won by Tim Kaine with 52.2%), SD11 (currently held by Amanda Chase – R; district won by Tim Kaine with 49.6%).
• If Democrats pick up all the currently R-held State Senate seats, we could end up with 26 out of 40 Senators after November 2019. If Democrats pick up all the currently R-held House of Delegates seats, we’re potentially at 61 Democratic Delegates. Of course, we probably won’t pick up all those seats, but all we need to take back control of the State Senate is a pickup of one, preferably two seats, to get to 20-20 (Lt. Governor Fairfax would break many ties) or 21-19. In the House of Delegates, a pickup of 1 seat would get us to 50-50, while 2 seats would get us to 51-49 and a Democratic Speaker for the first time since Thomas Moss in 2000…