See below for some graphs of Democratic performance in key Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates districts between 2015 and 2019. Also see key takeaways from each graphic.
- The first graphic focuses on Democratic performance in key State Senate districts between 2015 and 2019.
- One thing that jumps out at is that, in every case, Democrats under-performed Ralph Northam’s margins in 2017. For instance, Northam lost SD28 by 9 points in 2017, while Qasim Rashid lost the district by 15 points in 2019. Also: Northam lost SD17 by 1 point in 2017, while Amy Laufer lost it by 3.5 points in 2019; Northam won SD13 by 13 points in 2017, while John Bell won it by 8.6 points in 2019; Northam won SD12 by 5 points in 2017, while Debra Rodman lost it by 1.7 points in 2019; Northam lost SD11 by 7 points in 2017, while Amanda Pohl lost it by 9.3 points in 2019; Northam won SD10 by 15 points in 2017, while Ghazala Hashmi won it by 8.3 points in 2019; Northam won SD8 by 1 point in 2017, while Missy Cotter Smasal lost it by 4.4 points in 2019; Northam won SD7 by 9 points in 2017, while Cheryl Turpin lost it by 0.9 points in 2019.
- Also interesting: 2019 Democratic State Senate performance in these districts came fairly close to tracking Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins. Thus, Clinton’s margin in SD7 in was 0.0 points, very close to Cheryl Turpin’s -0.9 points; Clinton’s margin in SD11 was -11 points, similar to Amanda Pohl’s -9.3 points; Clinton’s margin in SD28 was -16 points, similar to Qasim Rashid’s -15 points; Clinton’s margin in SD13 was +6 points, similar to John Bell’s +8.6 points; etc.
- Tim Kaine’s 2018 margins over Corey Stewart were much greater than Dems’ 2019 margins, or even Northam’s 2017 margins. In part, that was a result of it being a federal election year. Also, Tim Kaine was an excellent candidate for Democrats and Corey Stewart was a horrible one for Republicans. So put all that together and you get the impressive Kaine margins we saw.
- Looking at the 2019 Virginia election year vs the previous “off/odd” year (2015) gives us an “apples-to-apples” comparison. As you can see, Democratic margins improved greatly from 2015 across all the districts (except for SD28, where no Democrat ran in 2015).
- Thus, SD7 went from -9.4 points in 2015 to -0.9 points in 2019; SD8 went from -17.9 points in 2015 to -4.4 points in 2019; SD10 went from -2.7 points in 2015 to +8.3 points in 2019; SD12 went from -19.7 points in 2015 to -1.7 points in 2019; SD13 went from -4.8 points in 2015 to +8.6 points in 2019; SD17 went from a whopping -23.3 points in 2015 to just -3.5 points in 2019. That’s all great, of course, except that it wasn’t enough for Democrats to actually win SD7, SD8, SD12 or SD17 – close but no cigar, unfortunately.
- On the House of Delegates side, we see similar patterns to the State Senate. Thus, in almost every single key district (except for HD28 and HD91) I’ve looked at, Democrats under-performed Ralph Northam’s margins in 2017. For instance, Northam won HD40 by 11 points in 2017, while Dan Helmer won it by 4.8 points in 2019; Northam won HD73 by 8 points in 2017, while Rodney Willett won it by 4.5 points in 2019; Northam won HD75 by 5 points in 2019, while Roslyn Tyler won it by 2.1 points in 2019; Northam won HD76 by 21 points in 2017, while Clint Jenkins won it by 12.8 points in 2019; etc.
- And yet again: 2019 Democratic House of Delegates performance in these districts came fairly close to tracking Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins. Thus, Clinton’s margin in HD10 was 4 points, while Wendy Gooditis’ in 2019 was 4.7 points; Clinton’s margin in HD13 was 14 points, while Danica Roem’s 2019 margin was 12 points; Clinton’s margin in HD51 was 8 points, while Hala Ayala’s 2019 margin was 9.2 points; Clinton’s margin in HD72 was 6 points, while Schuyler VanValkenburg’s 2019 margin was 6.6 points; Clinton’s margin in HD76 was 14 points, while Clint Jenkins’ 2019 margin was 12.8 points; Clinton’s margin in HD85 was 2 points, while Alex Askew’s 2019 margin was 3.4 points; Clinton’s margin in HD94 was 16 points, while Shelly Simonds’ 2019 margin was 17.4 points; etc.
- A few exceptions to the preceding pattern: Clinton lost HD28 by 4 points, while Josh Cole won it by 4 points in 2019; Clinton won HD66 by 4 points, while Sheila Bynum-Coleman lost it by 4.6 points in 2019; Clinton won HD75 by 10 points, while Roslyn Tyler won it by only 2.1 points in 2019; Clinton won HD91 by just 3 points, while Martha Mugler won it by 9.7 points in 2019; Clinton won HD100 by 2 points, while Phil Hernandez lost it by 3.9 points in 2019.
- Looking at the 2019 Virginia election year vs the previous “off/odd” year (2015) gives us an “apples-to-applies” comparison. As you can see, Democratic margins improved greatly from 2015 across all the House of Delegates districts – that is, where Democrats even fielded a candidate in 2015.
- For instance, Democrats lost HD10 by 24.2 points in 2015, while winning it (Wendy Gooditis) by 4.7 points in 2019; Dems lost HD13 by 12.2 points in 2015, while winning it (Danica Roem) by 12 points in 2019; Dems lost HD21 by 13.7 points in 2015, while winning it (Kelly Fowler) by 9.2 points in 2019; Dems lost HD28 by 21 points in 2015, while winning it (Joshua Cole) by 4 points in 2019; Dems lost HD31 by 6.9 points in 2015, while winning it (Elizabeth Guzman) by 5.4 points in 2019; Dems lost HD40 by 20.5 points in 2015, while winning it (Dan Helmer) by 4.8 points in 2019; Dems lost HD50 by 17.6 points in 2015, while winning it by 6.8 points in 2019; Dems lost HD94 by 15.1 points in 2015, while winning it (Shelly Simonds) by 17.4 points in 2019…
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