See below for some graphs of Democratic performance in key Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates districts between 2015 and 2019. Also see key takeaways from each graphic.

- The first graphic focuses on Democratic performance in key State Senate districts between 2015 and 2019.
- One thing that jumps out at is that,
**in every case, Democrats under-performed Ralph Northam’s margins in 2017.**For instance, Northam lost**SD28**by 9 points in 2017, while Qasim Rashid lost the district by 15 points in 2019. Also: Northam lost**SD17**by 1 point in 2017, while Amy Laufer lost it by 3.5 points in 2019; Northam won**SD13**by 13 points in 2017, while John Bell won it by 8.6 points in 2019; Northam won**SD12**by 5 points in 2017, while Debra Rodman lost it by 1.7 points in 2019; Northam lost**SD11**by 7 points in 2017, while Amanda Pohl lost it by 9.3 points in 2019; Northam won**SD10**by 15 points in 2017, while Ghazala Hashmi won it by 8.3 points in 2019; Northam won**SD8**by 1 point in 2017, while Missy Cotter Smasal lost it by 4.4 points in 2019; Northam won**SD7**by 9 points in 2017, while Cheryl Turpin lost it by 0.9 points in 2019. - Also interesting:
**2019 Democratic State Senate performance in these districts came fairly close to tracking Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins.**Thus, Clinton’s margin in**SD7**in was 0.0 points, very close to Cheryl Turpin’s -0.9 points; Clinton’s margin in**SD11**was -11 points, similar to Amanda Pohl’s -9.3 points; Clinton’s margin in**SD28**was -16 points, similar to Qasim Rashid’s -15 points; Clinton’s margin in**SD13**was +6 points, similar to John Bell’s +8.6 points; etc. **Tim Kaine’s 2018 margins over Corey Stewart were much greater than Dems’ 2019 margins**, or even Northam’s 2017 margins. In part, that was a result of it being a federal election year. Also, Tim Kaine was an excellent candidate for Democrats and Corey Stewart was a horrible one for Republicans. So put all that together and you get the impressive Kaine margins we saw.

- Looking at the 2019 Virginia election year vs the previous “off/odd” year (2015) gives us an “apples-to-apples” comparison. As you can see, Democratic margins improved greatly from 2015 across all the districts (except for SD28, where no Democrat ran in 2015).
- Thus,
**SD7**went from -9.4 points in 2015 to -0.9 points in 2019;**SD8**went from -17.9 points in 2015 to -4.4 points in 2019;**SD10**went from -2.7 points in 2015 to +8.3 points in 2019;**SD12**went from -19.7 points in 2015 to -1.7 points in 2019;**SD13**went from -4.8 points in 2015 to +8.6 points in 2019;**SD17**went from a whopping -23.3 points in 2015 to just -3.5 points in 2019. That’s all great, of course, except that it wasn’t enough for Democrats to actually win SD7, SD8, SD12 or SD17 – close but no cigar, unfortunately.

- On the House of Delegates side, we see similar patterns to the State Senate. Thus, in almost every single key district (except for
**HD28**and**HD91**) I’ve looked at,**Democrats under-performed Ralph Northam’s margins in 2017.**For instance, Northam won**HD40**by 11 points in 2017, while Dan Helmer won it by 4.8 points in 2019; Northam won**HD73**by 8 points in 2017, while Rodney Willett won it by 4.5 points in 2019; Northam won**HD75**by 5 points in 2019, while Roslyn Tyler won it by 2.1 points in 2019; Northam won**HD76**by 21 points in 2017, while Clint Jenkins won it by 12.8 points in 2019; etc. - And yet again:
**2019 Democratic House of Delegates performance in these districts came fairly close to tracking Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins.**Thus, Clinton’s margin in**HD10**was 4 points, while Wendy Gooditis’ in 2019 was 4.7 points; Clinton’s margin in**HD13**was 14 points, while Danica Roem’s 2019 margin was 12 points; Clinton’s margin in**HD51**was 8 points, while Hala Ayala’s 2019 margin was 9.2 points; Clinton’s margin in**HD72**was 6 points, while Schuyler VanValkenburg’s 2019 margin was 6.6 points; Clinton’s margin in**HD76**was 14 points, while Clint Jenkins’ 2019 margin was 12.8 points; Clinton’s margin in**HD85**was 2 points, while Alex Askew’s 2019 margin was 3.4 points; Clinton’s margin in**HD94**was 16 points, while Shelly Simonds’ 2019 margin was 17.4 points; etc. - A few exceptions to the preceding pattern: Clinton lost
**HD28**by 4 points, while Josh Cole won it by 4 points in 2019; Clinton won**HD66**by 4 points, while Sheila Bynum-Coleman lost it by 4.6 points in 2019; Clinton won**HD75**by 10 points, while Roslyn Tyler won it by only 2.1 points in 2019; Clinton won**HD91**by just 3 points, while Martha Mugler won it by 9.7 points in 2019; Clinton won**HD100**by 2 points, while Phil Hernandez lost it by 3.9 points in 2019.

- Looking at the 2019 Virginia election year vs the previous “off/odd” year (2015) gives us an “apples-to-applies” comparison. As you can see, Democratic margins improved greatly from 2015 across all the House of Delegates districts – that is, where Democrats even fielded a candidate in 2015.
- For instance, Democrats lost
**HD10**by 24.2 points in 2015, while winning it (Wendy Gooditis) by 4.7 points in 2019; Dems lost**HD13**by 12.2 points in 2015, while winning it (Danica Roem) by 12 points in 2019; Dems lost**HD21**by 13.7 points in 2015, while winning it (Kelly Fowler) by 9.2 points in 2019; Dems lost**HD28**by 21 points in 2015, while winning it (Joshua Cole) by 4 points in 2019; Dems lost**HD31**by 6.9 points in 2015, while winning it (Elizabeth Guzman) by 5.4 points in 2019; Dems lost**HD40**by 20.5 points in 2015, while winning it (Dan Helmer) by 4.8 points in 2019; Dems lost**HD50**by 17.6 points in 2015, while winning it by 6.8 points in 2019; Dems lost**HD94**by 15.1 points in 2015, while winning it (Shelly Simonds) by 17.4 points in 2019…

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