UVA COVID-19 Model’s 6/12 Update: “For the moment, we can exhale; “Nevertheless, uncertainties remain,” with “several possible paths forward for Virginia”

Today’s weekly UVA COVID-19 Model report (see below for screenshots) has some interesting takeaways, such as…

• “For the moment, we can exhale. The community mitigation strategies employed by Virginia’s residents and businesses paused the epidemic. The transmission rate, or R0, which averaged 2.2 before public health restrictions were put in place, has dropped dramatically. It is below 1.0 and dropping in all but one region of Virginia, indicating the number of new daily cases should decline.”
• “…Virginia had the largest statewide drop in new reported cases between May 26 and June 9…Though it is still early, increased testing and tracing seems to be having the desired effect.”
• “Nevertheless, uncertainties remain. This week’s model run shows several possible paths forward for Virginia. In those paths where Virginians continue to follow the Forward Virginia guidelines, and increased testing and contact tracing works, we continue to see a decline in new cases. On other paths, we could see hospitals overwhelmed in all most of the state. There is reason to be concerned.”
• “The model estimates that community mitigation strategies employed in Virginia have prevented 916,868 confirmed cases in Virginia so far.”
• “Though it is too early to be sure, the model indicates that even with a strong rebound, better detection may prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. Doing nothing is not an option, however. Under the full rebound scenario, we expect new cases would peak at 187,920 during the July 4th holiday week.”