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Weekly UVA COVID-19 Model Update Finds 10 of 35 Local Health Districts “Experiencing Significant Surges”; “It is crucial that Virginians clamp down now”

Virus reproduction rate now "near 2.0 in the Eastern HPP"


The weekly COVID-19 model update from the University of Virginia Biocomplexity Institute is now available. See below for highlights,  including:

  • Eight health districts in the Hampton Roads area, along with Thomas Jefferson and Pittsylvania-Danville districts, are experiencing a surge in cases.”
  • “The reproduction rate is above 1.0 statewide and in two of six HPP regions. It is near 2.0 in the Eastern HPP.”
  • “So far, projections do not anticipate hospitalizations will exceed capacity through August, however it is crucial to mitigate surges.
  • “Many states relaxed restrictions early, and now 23 states are experiencing significant surges in cases. Virginia, by contrast, took a phased approach, only entering Phase III of the Forward Virginia plan on July 1.”
  • Despite this measured approach, Virginia is not immune to a resurgence of COVID-19, especially with cases surging in other states. Currently, 10 of Virginia’s 35 Local Health Districts (LHDs) are experiencing significant surges. This includes eight LHDs in the Hampton Roads area, pictured in the charts above, along with Thomas Jefferson & Pittsylvania-Danville.”
  • “It is crucial that Virginians clamp down now to prevent these surges from growing and spreading.”
  • “While cases are surging in Hampton Roads, the model does not project that hospital capacity will be overwhelmed during the projection window (through September 6. ) However, under the current course the model does project that new confirmed cases will continue to rise in Hampton Roads and Virginia through that date, even if a statewide surge is avoided. If a surge occurs 4 weeks after full reopening, as occurred in other states, growth could be rapid into the fall.”


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