Want to know how many Virginia House of Delegates districts are “Trump districts” and how many are “Biden districts?” You won’t find that information on the State Board of Elections or VPAP websites, because – as we wrote about on March 9 – due to massive changes in voting habits due to COVID-19 and Virginia’s General Assembly making it MUCH easier to vote early/absentee (which is a good thing) but not allocating absentee votes by precinct (which is not a good thing!), those district-by-district breakouts haven’t been available, at least not officially, from the November 2020 election. Fortunately, Ohio-based cartographer Ryan Brune has made some estimates, “basically using county margins and precinct demographics for estimates,” and what he found is that Joe Biden appears to have won 61 out of 100 House of Delegates districts (note: Democrats currently hold 55 out of 100 House of Delegates districts). Now, there’s an interactive Virginia House of Delegates map by CNalysis (“2020 Presidential by Legislative District & Most Recent Election Result”) of Brune’s estimates. Check out a screenshot, below and here for the fully interactive version of this super-useful resource (and, of course, if you want to support the work these folks do, click here). Finally, see below the map for a few highlights that jumped out at me.
- Again, Joe Biden appears to have won 61 out of 100 Virginia House of Delegates districts this past November. Of those, Democrats hold 55, with six others (HD27, HD62, HD66, HD81, HD84, HD100) held by Republicans. Of course, there’s no guarantee that these results will translate into much-lower-turnout House of Delegates elections this November, but it’s a starting point for analysis at least.
- Obviously, the “bluest” areas of Virginia are in the urban/suburban “crescent” from Hampton Roads to the Richmond area to Northern Virginia. The “reddest” areas are in far SW Virginia, western Virginia, and mostly rural areas of central and eastern Virginia. The battlegrounds are mostly in suburban and exurban areas.
- Click here to see a table of “2020 Presidential Election Margins by HoD Seat
(Positive Values Indicate Biden Win).” Clearly, the best Democratic pickup opportunity among the six districts currently held by a Republican – but won by Joe Biden in November – is HD66, which is +0.12, and which former Speaker Kirk Cox (R) is vacating to run for governor. The candidates in this district, which is located in Chesterfield County and Colonial Heights, are Republican Mike Cherry and Democrats Katie Sponsler and Linnard Harris. So let’s hope whoever ends up being the Democratic nominee raises a ton of money, runs a great campaign and wins this one. As for HD27, that Chesterfield County district is held by Del. Roxann Robinson (R), who is being challenged by Democrat Debra Gardner. In HD62 (Chesterfield County, Hopewell), Del. Carrie Coyner (R) is being challenged by Democrat Jasmine Gore. In HD81 (Virginia Beach, Chesapeake), Del. Barry Knight (R) is being challenged by Democrat Jeffrey Feld. In HD84 (Virginia Beach), Del. Glenn Davis (R) – who is running for reelection and also for Lt. Governor – is being challenged by two candidates seeking the Democratic nomination, Tracie Liguid and Kim Melnyk. And in HD100 (Accomack, Norfolk, Northampton), Del. Rob Bloxom (R) is being challenged by Democrat Finale Norton. - Some potentially vulnerable Democratic-held House of Delegates districts include HD75 (Del. Roslyn Tyler), HD83 (Del. Nancy Guy), HD28 (Del. Joshua Cole), HD12 (Del. Chris Hurst), HD85 (Del. Alex Askew), HD73 (Del. Rodney Willett), HD10 (Del. Wendy Gooditis), HD63 (Del. Lashrecse Aird). On HD75, Chaz tweeted, “I was surprised by how poor Roz Tyler’s campaign finance report was. She only raised $7K. Her opponent who narrowly lost in 2019 raised $30K. I have no idea what she’s doing. This is one of the most vulnerable seats for the Democrats.”
- Also note that CNalysis has made three ratings changes (HD-51 | Lean D → Likely D; HD-88 | Likely R → Very Likely R; HD-96 | Very Likely R → Likely R) since 1Q21 campaign finance numbers came out on 4/15 and 4/16, plus one other change (“HD-66 is going from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican”).
What else jumps out at you?
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