For Virginia political junkies, knowing how each House of Delegates district voted for president is very important. For an example of what I’m talking about, see here for the 17 House of Delegates districts that were controlled by Republicans at the time, yet which were won by Hillary Clinton in November 2016. As we discussed many times in 2017, if Democrats picked up those 17 seats, we’d take back control of the House of Delegates. In the end, Democrats picked up 15 seats in November 2017, with one race decided by a drawing from a ceramic bowl, so it easily could have been a 16-seat Democratic pickup. Then, in November 2019, Democrats picked up the other two of those 17, plus four more, to get to 55 Democrats in the House of Delegates. That shows you how can this can work, if you only have the data to do the analysis…
Unfortunately, due to massive changes in voting habits due to COVID-19 and Virginia’s General Assembly making it MUCH easier to vote early/absentee (which is a good thing) but not allocating absentee votes by precinct (which is not a good thing!), those district-by-district breakouts haven’t been available, at least not officially, from the November 2020 election. Of course, you can try to make estimates, but that would be very time-consuming and difficult. The good news is it looks like Ohio-based cartographer Ryan Brune has given it a shot. How did he do it? According to Brune, “I will be doing a write-up on how soonish, but basically using county margins and precinct demographics for estimates.” As a Virginia political junkie, I’m very much looking forward to that write-up, of course. In the meantime, though, see below for some highlights from Brune, including:
- Joe Biden appears to have won 61 out of 100 House of Delegates districts. Again, Democrats represent 55 House of Delegates districts at present, meaning that there’s still room to grow – potentially by another 6 seats – assuming those Biden/Harris voters turn out in large numbers this November, and/or if Trump/Pence voters do NOT turn out in large numbers this November, or some combo of those two things…
- Brune estimates the 51st-most Democratic seat as HD63, which is represented by Del. Lashrecse Aird (D), which Tim Kaine won by 17 points in 2018, and which Ralph Northam won by 13 points in 2017. So that’s a good sign for Virginia House Democrats heading into this November…
- As for the 51st-most Republican seat, Brune estimates that as HD21, which is represented by Del. Kelly Convirs Fowler (D), which Tim Kaine won by 18 points in 2018, and which Ralph Northam won by 14 points in 2017. Also a good sign for Virginia House Democrats…
- The six Republican-held seats that Biden carried in November 2020 are HD27 (currently held by Republican Del. Roxann Robinson), HD62 (currently held by Republican Del. Carrie Coyner), HD66 (currently held by Republican Del. Kirk Cox, who is running for governor), HD81 (currently held by Republican Del. Barry Knight), HD84 (currently held by Republican Del. Glenn Davis, who is running for LG), HD100 (currently held by Republican Del. Rob Bloxom). Obviously, it would be great to pick up a few of these…
- Brune notes that HD66 is a Biden +12 district, which means that if Democrats have a strong candidate, it’s definitely one we can pick up. Clearly, Cox knows that, which might help explain why he’s vacating the seat to run statewide…
- Brune also notes that Biden won HD10, which is represented by Del. Wendy Gooditis (D), by 11 points. So that’s also a good sign…again, as long as Democratic voters show up this November.
By the way, you can compare Brune’s maps and numbers to CNalysis’ latest House of Delegates forecast, which Chaz Nuttycombe pegs at “pure Toss-Up.” Given Brune’s findings, it seems like it could be “leans Dem” at this point, but I’m very curious to hear what Chaz has to say…
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