Home 2021 Elections “Another record day of in person early voting with people 64,136 voting...

“Another record day of in person early voting with people 64,136 voting on Thursday”; Mostly in “Blue” or “Purple” Areas

Sam Shirazi - "We will have an early vote universe of 1M+ voters by Sunday which should be about 1/3 [of total] voters."

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See below for some highlights from yesterday’s early voting numbers, courtesy of VPAP, Sam Shirazi, etc.

  • There were 64,136 early/in-person votes cast yesterday – a new record for this election. Of those, 8,756 were in Fairfax County; 4,324 in Chesterfield County; 3,264 in Loudoun County; 3,065 in VA Beach; 2,768 in Prince William County; 2,301 in Henrico County; 2,233 in Arlington County; 2,044 in Chesapeake; 1,323 in Norfolk; 1,319 in Richmond City; 1,274 in Alexandria; 1,175 in Albemarle County; and 1,067 in Spotsylvania County. That accounts for more than half of all the early/in-person votes cast yesterday…mostly in “blue” or “purple” areas.
  • By CD, looking at all early votes (in-person, by-mail, mail applications), it goes like this: VA10 (121,112); VA07 (114,206); VA08 (110,776); VA01 (108,913); VA11 (100,738); VA04 (98,287); VA05 (89,504); VA02 (86,527); VA06 (83,922); VA03 (73,914); VA09 (61,959). In sum, about 48.1% of early votes (including in-person, by-mail and mail applications) are coming from “blue” CDs; 32.8% from “red” CDs; 19.1% from “purple” CDs.
  • “All right, after miscellaneous morning update, here is state of race summary: Based on what I’m seeing in early vote, it will be competitive race and both sides getting out a lot of people. I do not see anything to support Fox News poll numbers. But keep this in mind…Fox News poll sampled around 1,100 Virginians and tried to extrapolate what would happen with around ~3M votes. That’s what polls do, sometime it works and sometimes it doesn’t. I’m not saying poll is totally made up, but it has limited sample size and could have errors. So…We will have an early vote universe of 1M+ voters by Sunday which should be about 1/3 [of total] voters. Yes it is skewed and will over represent Democrats, but they are real votes. We don’t who they voted for, but we know where they are from and voting method. Think of it as a massive poll.” – Sam Shirazi
  • “Another record day of in person early voting with people 64,136 voting on Thursday. 2 more days of early voting and rainy Friday might see small dip with a strong end expected on Saturday. When in doubt, GOTV and get those infrequent voters out to polls. On top of this, about 16K mail ballots added since last night on VPAP. Assuming 75-25 Democrats break down of these ballots, Democrats gained about 8K net votes from these alone. These tend to lag in processing and will continue even after in person early vote ends.”
  • “VPAP added 16K more mail ballots this morning. So using this model, Dems would have 128K early vote lead. Again, I think the early vote lead is bigger and this is very conservative estimate.” – Sam Shirazi
  • “I’m curious whether GOTV event today with VP and Pharrell in Norfolk will help in neighboring Portsmouth. Early voting really lagging there and red flag with African-American vote. There is reason Jim Clyburn coming too Can still catch up on Election Day.” – Sam Shirazi
  • Chesterfield blowing out early vote and outpacing more blue Henrico in Richmond suburbs. My guess is both parties voting heavily, but a lot of traditional Republicans here so might have slight edge. [Question is] if Youngkin does ok here or gets big margin needs.” – Sam Shirazi

 

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