Looking Ahead to the Crucial 2023 Virginia General Assembly Elections: VPAP Breaks Down the 2022 Midterm Results by VA House of Delegates, State Senate Districts

VPAP has, very helpfully, calculated and displayed 2022 midterm results by Virginia Senate and House of Delegates districts. See here and below for the results, with a few highlights.

• VPAP’s analysis finds that the VA Senate, based on the 2022 midterm results, has 15 “Strong D” seats, 6 “Lean D,” 3 “Competitive,” 5 “Lean R” and 11 “Strong R.” So if 2023 turnout patterns (e.g., if the Republican and Democratic “dropoff” are proportionate) are similar to the 2022 midterms – far from a  certainty, of course – that would most likely equate to 21 Democratic seats, 16 Republican seats, and three tossups…so as many as 24 Democratic seats if we can win them all (or 22-23 seats if we win one or two of them).
• VPAP’s analysis finds that the House of Delegates, also based on the 2022 midterm results, has 39 “Strong D” seats, 11 “Lean D,” 10 “Competitive,” 15 “Lean R” and 25 “Strong R.” So, again, if 2023 turnout patterns are similar to the 2022 midterms, that would likely equate to 50 Democratic seats, 40 Republican seats and 10 tossups…so as many as 60 Democratic seats if we can win them all, but more likely in the 50-55 range if we win between zero and five of the ten tossups).
• Key competitive Senate districts include SD16 (Democratic Del. Schuyler VanValkenberg vs. Republican incumbent Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant), SD30 (Democratic Del. Danica Roem vs. Republican Ian Lovejoy), SD31 (Democrat Russet Perry or Zach Cummings vs. Republican incumbent Sen. Jill Vogel or right wingnut Geary Higgins or…?); SD27 (Democrat Ben Litchfield or Luke Radley Wright or…? vs. Republican Tara Durant or Matt Strickland or…:), SD24 (Democratic incumbent Sen. Monty Mason vs. Republican Danny Diggs), SD17 (Democratic Del. Clint Jenkins or ? vs. Republican Del. Emily Brewer or Hermie Sadler or…?); SD20 (Democratic incumbent Sen. Lynwood Lewis or Victoria Luevanos vs. Republican incumbent Sen. Bill DeSteph) and SD04 (Democratic incumbent Sen. John Edwards vs. Republican incumbent Sen. Dave Suetterlein). Plus, Dems need to win the SD22 special election coming up on 1/10/23, between Democrat Aaron Rouse and Republican Kevin H. Adams.
• Key competitive House of Delegates districts include HD65 (Democrat/former Del. Joshua Cole vs…?); HD58 (Democratic incumbent Del. Rodney Willett vs. ?), HD97 (Democrat Michael Feggans or ? vs. Republican incumbent Del. Karen Greenhalgh), HD21 (Democrat Joshua Thomas or ? vs. Republican John Stirrup or Joshua Joseph Quill), HD82 (Democrat Kimberly Pope Adams or Victor McKenzie vs. Republican incumbent Del. Kim Taylor), HD57 (Democrat Susanna Gibson or Bob Shippee vs. Republican David Owen), HD89 (no candidates listed at this point on VPAP), HD66 (no candidates listed at this point on VPAP), HD75 (? vs. Republican incumbent Del. Carrie Coyner), HD22 (no candidates listed at this point on VPAP), HD86 (? vs. Republican incumbent Del. AC Cordoza), HD64 (Democrat Leonard Lacey vs. ?), HD71 (Democrat Jessica Anderson or ? vs. Republican incumbent Del. Amanda Batten),  and HD30 (Democrat Max Ben Sawicky or ? vs. ?).