Home 2022 Elections Virginia Midterms Election Day 2022: Open Thread

Virginia Midterms Election Day 2022: Open Thread

Races to keep an eye on...

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Today is midterms election day in Virginia; polls are open from 6 am to 7 pm, and you can vote at your regular polling location. The most attention this election – which features races for the US House of Representatives and some local offices, but no “statewide” race – has gone to the hotly contested races in VA02 (Rep. Elaine Luria vs. Republican Jen Kiggans), VA07 (Rep. Abigail Spanberger vs. Republican Yesli Vega) and, to a slightly lesser extent, VA10 (Rep. Jennifer Wexton vs. Republican Hung Cao).  Other races to keep an eye on include:

  • US House races in VA01 (Rep. Rob Wittman vs. Democrat Herb Jones), VA03 (Rep. Bobby Scott vs. Republican Terry Namkung), VA04 (Rep. Donald McEachin vs. Republican Leon Benjamin), VA05 (Rep. Bob Good vs. Democrat Josh Throneburg), VA06 (Rep. Ben Cline vs. Democrat Jennifer Lewis), VA08 (Rep. Don Beyer vs. Republican Karina Lipsman), VA09 (Rep. Morgan Griffith vs. Democrat Taysha DeVaughan), VA11 (Rep. Gerry Connolly vs. Republican Jim Myles).
  • In Loudoun County, there are two special elections for School Board – for Broad Run and Leesburg districts – with three candidates running for each seat (Loudoun Dems-endorsed candidate Nick Gothard, plus independent Andrew Hoyler and Republican Tiffany Polifko for Broad Run; Loudoun Dems-endorsed candidate Erika Ogedegbe, plus Loudoun-GOP-endorsed Republican Michael Anthony Rivera and independent Lauren Elizabeth Shernoff for Leesburg).
  • In Fairfax City, there’s a race for mayor (to replace current Mayor David Meyer, who isn’t seeking reelection) between conservative Republican Sang Yi and long-time Democratic activist/Moms Demand Action “Gun Sense Candidate” Catherine Read. There are also elections for Fairfax City Council, with nine candidates (incumbents Joseph D. Harmon, So P. Lim, D. Thomas Ross and Jon R. Stehle Jr.; challengers Billy M. Bates, Kate G. Doyle Feingold, Jeffrey C. Greenfield, Anahita “Ana” Renner, Craig S. Selewski) vying for six slots.
  • In Roanoke City, there’s an election for At-Large City Council, with eleven candidates (including Democrats Peter Volosin, Vivian Sanchez-Jones, Joseph Cobb, Luke Priddy) running for four seats.
  • In Arlington, there are races for one County Board seat (incumbent/Democratic-nominated Matt de Ferranti vs. independents Adam Theo and Audrey Clement) and one School Board seat (Democratic-endorsed Bethany Sutton vs. independent James Rives).
  • Elections for city council and school board seats (one or more) in ChesapeakeVirginia BeachNorfolkHamptonPortsmouthNewport NewsChesterfieldHenricoPetersburgFauquier, etc.

I’m not sure I’d put a lot of stock in prediction models, but for the record, The Economist’s US House model has Jen Kiggans as the slight favorite (54% chance of winning) in VA02; Rep. Abigail Spanberger as the favorite (65% chance of winning) in VA07; and Rep. Jennifer Wexton the strong favorite (92% chance of winning) in VA10, with every other district as non-competitive. And the FiveThirtyEight US House “deluxe” model, which I’m very skeptical of due to its inclusion of a lot of highly questionable polls (or “polls” in air quotes), has Rep. Luria with a 48% chance in VA02, Rep. Spanberger with a 72% chance in VA07, and Rep. Wexton with a 93% chance in VA10.

With that…what are you seeing and hearing out there? What’s turnout like in your neck of the woods? Who did you vote for and why? Feel free to add your observations in the comments section.

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