With Virginia campaign finance numbers for 7/31-830 now in (and with Dems holding money advantages for House of Delegates and State Senate — although watch out for “dark money” and Youngkin’s huge war chest), and with early voting set to kick off in just five days (on 9/22), we have a bettter feel for where the key Virginia State Senate and House of Delegates races now stand. See below for some analysis/forecasts by Chaz Nuttycombe, EthanC7, Magenta, etc., along with my thoughts (in bold/blue).
These forecasts by Chaz Nuttycombe seem reasonable, although I’d argue SD24 and SD31 both could be rated “tilt” or even “lean” D at this point. As for HD30, Democratic nominee Rob Banse far outraised his Republican opponent, who is very far right/extreme (e.g., a “Stop the Steal” guy), so maybe that district could be in play? As for HD82, I’d rate that one a “tossup” or even “tilt” towards Democratic nominee Kimberly Pope Adams at this point. The big one here is SD31 (Democrat Russet Perry vs. Republican Juan Pablo Segura) moving from “Toss Up” to “Tilt D,” as that district would represent a crucial pickup for Democrats, and all but guarantee a State Senate majority. Also, Dems need to lock down SD16, which leans “blue” but has a fairly strong incumbent Republican (Siobhan Dunnavant) who needs to be defeated (by Democrat Schuyler VanValkenburg); and SD24, which is held by Democratic Sen. Monty Mason, and which is looking a lot better after Mason’s strong fundraising over the summer. – Lowell
I don’t know this person, but his forecasts are reasonable for the State Senate, which very well could end up at 22-18 (where it is now), and even better if Dems can win SD27 (Joel Griffin) and/or SD17 (Clint Jenkins), in addition to SD31 (Russet Perry), SD24 (Monty Mason), SD16 (Schuyler VanValkenburg), SD30 (Danica Roem), etc. His House of Delegates forecasts are *perhaps* a tad optimistic (for Democrats) – although not impossible by any means. Note that the House of Delegates is currently at 52-48 Republican, but was at 55-45 Democratic prior to the 2021 gubernatorial election, so it’s definitely possible it could revert back closer to that pre-2021 margin, without Youngkin on the ballot, and given how Dems have been overperforming nationally this year. Anyway, if Dems can win most or all of the following – HD21 (Josh Thomas), HD 22 (Travis Nembhard), HD57 (Susanna Gibson), HD82 (Kimberly Pope Adams), HD97 (Michael Feggans) – we’ll be in *great* shape to take back the House of Delegates. If we can win HD41 (Lily Franklin) and/or HD30 (Rob Banse) or even one or more districts such as HD64 (Leonard Lacey), HD71 (Jessica Anderson), HD75 (Stephen Miller-Pitts), HD89 (Karen Jenkins), all the better! But let’s at least lock down the ones we SHOULD win, then go from there. – Lowell
SD31 is Democratic-trending, which is not the same thing as “left trending” (in fact, voters in suburban districts like SD31 mostly don’t like the fact that the Trump GOP has moved far right, much more than that they themselves are trending “left”) but other than that, this analysis by @ECaliberSeven is spot-on. – Lowell