FiveThirtyEight Model Gives Harris-Walz an 84/100 Chance of Winning Virginia. But Obviously, Let’s Take NOTHING for Granted – and Instead Work to Crush Trump Here.

Don’t go by polls or models, of course – just donate, volunteer, spread the word to friends/family/etc., and “leave it all on the field” through election day for Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Tim Kaine, and every other Democrat on the ballot this fall. Having said that, it’s good to see Virginia continue to be leaning strongly towards Harris/Walz, at least according to the FiveThirtyEight.com model. A few highlights from their model update include:

• Harris/Walz is favored nationally, winning 58 times out of 100, in the model, and with the electoral vote count at 287 Harris/Walz-251 Trump/Vance.  Obviously, this is still waaaayy too close for comfort, especially given the absolute disaster a Trump win would entail for the country and the world. By all rights, and in a sane/well-informed world, this election shouldn’t even be close, but sadly, here we are…
• Virginia falls into the “Lkely Democratic” category, with Harris/Walz modeled at an 84/100 chance of winning here.
• In terms of the popular vote, the FiveThirtyEight model has Harris/Walz at 52.1%-43.3% in Virginia, which would be a slightly lower margin of victory than Biden/Harris’ 10.1-percentage-point win in 2020.  This time, let’s shoot for at LEAST a 10.1-percentage-point win for Harris/Walz, and an even bigger margin for Tim Kaine over his extremist opponent, Hung Cao.