Audio: Sam Shirazi’s Detailed 2025 VA House of Delegates Preview Concludes, “Democrats are going to be on the offense trying to potentially flip those eight seats [held by Republicans but carried by Kamala Harris]”

Nice job by Sam Shirazi on this VA House of Delegates preview. See below for audio and a few highlights (my comments in parentheses/green/italics).

• “…keep an eye out for Tuesday with the Wisconsin Supreme Court race. Who knows if the Republicans do well? Maybe I’ll have to revise some of my thoughts on the House of Delegates. But right now, I would say Democrats are looking pretty good to keep their majority and possibly gain some seats. Having said that, it’s not impossible for the Republicans to get a majority, but I do think it’s going to be a pretty uphill climb for them to do that this year.”  (I agree with this – keep an eye on special elections, including this coming Tuesday, to get a better idea about each party base’s level of enthusiasm and turnout.  Of course, these are special elections in early April, so not exactly comparable to a general election in November, but still, they’re important data points. Also note that Virginia elections held the year after the presidential election tend to go in the opposite direction, sometimes BIG TIME in the opposite direction, such as in 2017, when Democrats picked up 15 seats in the Virginia House of Delegates and swept the three statewide offices, with Ralph Northam winning by 9 points. Could this happen again in 2025? Assuming free-and-fair elections, plus Trump’s approval rating in Virginia in the low 40%s or worse…yes, definitely. But obviously, WE have to make that happen – volunteer, donate, vote – and we shouldn’t think Democratic victory is inevitable by any means. Also, the bigger then win the better, both in terms of picking up as many House of Delegates seats as possible, and also in terms of sending a message that will resound across the country…and to the White House…about our rejection of DOGE, Project 2025, etc.)
• “…there was only a two-year period in the last 35-plus years where the Democrats have had a trifecta in Virginia” (Yes, and during that two-year “trifecta” from January 2020 to January 2022, Democrats passed HUNDREDS of pieces of great legislation on a huge array of topics, the vast majority of which were signed into law by Gov. Ralph Northam. So this really demonstrates what’s at stake in November. Plus, as Sam Shirazi points out, if Democrats control the House of Delegats and State Senate, they can pass important constitutional amendments – on reproductive freedom, voting rights and marriage equality – for the second time and then send them to voters for approval in November 2026. That alone should be motivation for Virginians to show up in droves this November and vote Democratic up and down the ballot!)
• “…there are currently eight seats that but former Vice President Harris won in 2024 that Republicans currently hold….Having said that, it’s not a given that Democrats will win all the Harris seats that former Vice President Harris won in 2024, or even that they’ll flip the majority of them.” (Remember, heading into the 2017 elections, there were 17 House of Delegates seats that Hillary Clinton won, but which were held by Republican incumbents. In November 2017, Democrats managed to flip 15 of those, with another ending up a TIE that had to be decided by pulling a name out of a ceramic bowl – no joking! So this time, I’m not expecting Democrats to flip all eight seats won by Kamala Harris that are currently held by Republicans, but if we flip even half of them and hold the seats we have now, we’ll get Democrats back to the 55-45 House of Delegates majority we had prior to the November 2021 elections. Definitely something to shoot for!)
• The first House of Delegates district Sam Shirazi highlights in this podcast is “House District 57 in Western Henrico and Eastern Goochland…former Vice President Harris won the district by almost nine points… this district, House District of East 57, is the one that’s most likely to flip” (I agree 100%; this district is almost an automatic “flip” to the Democrats if we have even a DECENT election in November and a DECENT Democratic nominee.)
• Other House of Delegates districts Sam Shirazi highlights as “top tier”/competitive seats are: HD75 (” in the Richmond suburbs in Chesterfield and Hopewell”; “Harris won this seat by about six points in 2024”; incumbent Republican Del. Carrie Coyner); HD71 (“basically Williamsburg and some of the suburbs of Williamsburg”; “Harris carried the district by  about four and a half points”; incumbent Republican Del. Amanda Batten; “House District 71 will be a top tier battleground”); HD82 (“primarily based in Petersburg and some of the rural areas surrounding Petersburg”; incumbent Republican Del. Kim Taylor; “Harris won it by about 4%”; ” we’ll just have to see which party is able to turn out their voters”); HD89 (“based in Suffolk and Chesapeake”; incumbent Republican Del. Baxter Ennis not running for reelection; Harris “was able to win the district in 2024 by about three points”; definitely winnable for Democrats).
• Then there are seats that COULD be competitive, but are more “reach” districts for Democrats at this point: HD86 (Hampton and Poquoson; incumbent Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza; “Harris carried the district by about one point”); HD73 (Chesterfield; incumbent Republican Del. Mark Earley; “Harris won this district by one point”; “Chesterfield is a suburban district and it’s just moving towards the Democrats”); HD64 (Stafford County; incumbent Republican Del. Paul Milde; Trump won this district by 2%; winnable in a “blue wave”); HD30 (Western Loudoun and Western Fauquier; incumbent Republican Del. Geary Higgins; Trump won it by 1 point in 2024; strong Democratic challenger in John McAuliff); HD22 (“middle Prince William County”; Republican incumbent Del. Ian Lovejoy; Harris won it by one point; Democratic nominee is going to be former Del. Elizabeth Guzman); HD66 (Spotsylvania; incumbent Republican Del. Bobby Orrock; Trump won this district by just 2 points; Democratic nominee is going to be Spotsylvania School Board member Nicole Cole); HD41 (“Blacksburg and some rural parts of Southwest Virginia”; incumbent Republican Del. Chris Obenshain vs. Democratic challenger Lily Franklin; Trump won this district by 4.5 points; “if Lily Franklin is able to get students to come out and vote, this is the type of district that could flip”)
• As for Democratic-held seats that we need to make sure we hold, Sam Shirazi mentions HD21 (western PW County; incumbent Democratic Del. Josh Thomas; Harris won the district by over 5 points); HD65 (Fredericksburg; incumbent Democratic Del. Josh Cole; Harris won the district by almost 9 points); HD97 (Virginia Beach; incumbent Democratic Del. Michael Feggans; “Harris won the district by about 8%.”

So…excellent overview of the Virginia House of Delegates by Sam Shirazi. Anything you’d add to this, or anything you differ with? Feel free to weigh in!