In His Interview with Sam Shirazi, Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett Says “if I was setting a Las Vegas line [for the 2025 VA governor’s race], I would absolutely put [it] as a starting point in the double digits [in favor of Abigail Spanberger]”

Very interesting episode this week from Sam Shirazi, as he interviews Ben “Not Larry Sabato” Tribbett about a variety of political topics, including: how “the Democratic consultant class” operates; “scam PACs” and “the grifter industrial complex”; the downsides of small-dollar donors; the state of the 2025 Virginia governor’s race – and the outlook for what is most likely to happen (e.g., whether it could be a “blue wave,” whether Virginia Republicans will embrace Trump or try to distance themselves); potentially competitive US House districts in 2026; the Fairfax Casino; calling things as he sees them; and “the [Fairfax] school board budget chair being sued for embezzling money from a company.”

See below and here for the audio, as well as a few highlights, followed by my thoughts in parentheses/bold/green.

• “And when I went to Las Vegas to play poker full time, I decided to start Not Larry Sabato, the blog, as a way to sort of stay in touch with Virginia while I was while i was playing poker. So I did that for about a year and a half and got the blog off the ground.” (This one just brings back memories, mostly really good ones, about the early days of the Virginia blogosphere back in 2005, 2006, etc., when the “netroots” was “rising,” as my book with Nate Wilcox recounts. Today, of course, the media landscape has changed a great deal; for instance, back in 2005, there was no Twitter, no Facebook, no YouTube, no smartphones, a lot of people still using dial-up – primitive, huh? LOL Still, it was fun, as we helped “Raise” some “Kaine,” “Draft James Webb,” enjoy the no-holds-barred “Not Larry Sabato” comments section, etc. Good times…)
• “The Democratic consultant class structured very differently than what Republicans do. So when people say, you know, you’re a campaign consultant, it means very different things if you’re a Democratic consultant or a Republican. Democrats tend to be structured in these very rigid sort of a pyramid of a campaign…” (This is a well-informed, “inside-baseball” interesting discussion, with some insightful points about the advantages of a “general consultant” model, the differences between Republican and Democratic campaigns, how “all politics is national in terms of how the electorate moves,” why it’s misleading to look at how much money goes to consultants – without considering how much of that is spent for printing, postage, etc. Check it out!)
• ” I’ll make this statement and people are going to hear it and think immediately, well, I think that would ever come out of his mouth. But, the biggest problem facing the democratic party right now is small dollar donors… they’re coming into areas that they don’t know anything about and helping to select candidates for those areas that are not necessarily the people who are strongest on the ground…I think of that Kentucky Senate race from a few years ago where all the national Democratic donors decided that Amy McGrath was going to be the person who would unseat Mitch McConnell and pumped in tens of millions of dollars to her campaign…They think that they’re just seeing a tweet that goes out that says, this is our Democratic candidate, and and they’re interfering in primaries that they don’t know are are ongoing…You know, in the in last cycle, and this is a seat we would never be able to carry, but we spent so much money, millions and millions of dollars against Marjorie Taylor Greene. In one of the most Republican seats in the country because people want to donate against her. And look, in the general election, that’s going to happen. But I will tell you, that started all the way in the primary.” (Very good points about grassroots donors sometimes donating non-strategically, such as in the cases of Amy McGrath against Mitch McConnell or attempting to defeat Marjorie Taylor Greene or whoever, even though those seats are DEEP-red and pretty much unwinnable, meaning that those donations could have been more strategically directed at races that were winnable, in swing/”purple”/competitive seats, etc. The fact is, though, most people aren’t paying close attention to politics, so don’t understand why Democrats are targeting specific seats while not spending money in unwinnable ones. Heck, a lot of times they even get *angry* if you point this out, even though it should be a glaringly obvious fact!  But yeah, that’s the world we live in, for better – or in this case, often for worse.)
• “And you see these scam PACs come in and they amplify these candidates. It’s, it’s, it’s never supporting strong candidates. It’s always supporting candidates that want to partner with them and are going to give them the biggest cut of the donations. And it’s really become a cancer on the party because it deters stronger candidates from running.” (Agreed, that’s really bad stuff.)
• “… so far it feels bigger than ’17. the The wave that we’re likely to catch this year just feels like it’s absolutely massive. I think the 2017 wave was primarily driven from surges in turnout…And turnout surges are worth one vote each….When you turn somebody out, who otherwise might not have voted, they’re worth one vote to you because they go from a zero to a plus one instead of a minus one to a plus one, if that makes sense. And ’17 was really the story of excitement. You saw the Republicans were more excited than they had been in any cycle in Virginia governor history with Ed Gillespie. And they still got completely blown out because the Democratic excitement was that much greater for Ralph Northam, who got, I think, around a half million more votes than Terry McAuliffe had gotten four years earlier. That was a turnout surge. What I’m feeling happened this year is not just a turnout surge. I’m feeling a movement away from the Republican Party. There’s so many people that voted for Trump that are realizing he was serious about everything he said, and some of some of whom are losing their jobs, some of whom are feeling other impacts of the Trump presidency in real ways to their families.” (Yep, that’s definitely what it’s starting to feel like – a combination of the Democratic “base” being fired up to vote, along with some “movement away from the Republican Party,” even if that’s small so far in terms of supporting Democrats, but could also be significant if a lot of those folks just stay home in November. I wrote about that in this article – how it’s not just the president’s approval rating, it’s how fired up each party’s base is, or is NOT. As for having a bigger wave than what we saw in 2017, that would mean that Democrats would sweep all three statewide offices by potentially double-digit margins, as well as pick up a slew of House of Delegates seats. Of course, we have to all work to make this happen, not take it for granted, etc., but…yeah, that’s how it’s feeling at the moment.)
• “…everything I’m seeing on the ground, all the numbers I’m seeing is telling me that this is a year that you’re going to see voters switching and surging. And that would lead to a historic type of win for the Democrats, who have never, by the way, Sam, in the modern history, won a governor’s race in Virginia by double digits. But if I was setting a Las Vegas line, I would absolutely put the line and as a starting point in the double digits for this year.” (Remember, when people argue that there’s no way Abigail Spanberger could win by double digits, that – as I wrote here  – in late October 2009, President Barack Obama’s approval rating nationally was 53%, but Republican Bob McDonnell  nonetheless crushed Democrat Creigh Deeds by 17+ points. So this time around, it’s likely that Trump’s approval rating will be in the low 40%s by the fall – MUCH lower than Obama was in the fall of 2009 – with Virginia Democratic voters fired up and Virginia Republican voters quite possibly NOT fired up, for a bunch of reasons. So no, I’m not predicting a 17-point or greater Abigail Spanberger win over Winsome Earle-Sears, but I don’t think Ben Tribbett’s wrong to set the “Las Vegas line” at “double digits for this year.”)
• “And so, you know, that’s probably going to be for them breaking with Trump is going to be the only pathway that they have to trying to hold some of those voters. And that, of course, is dangerous and double-edged and you know creates all sorts of perils for the campaign. But I think they’re going to have to look at that kind of strategy as a as a way to try to deal with the people leaving, because turnout just ain’t going to cut it this year.” (So…yeah, this is exactly why you see both Republicans – like new VA GOP Chair Mark Peake – *and* Democrats – like new VA Dems Chair Lamont Bagby – *both* hoping that Trump campaigns for Earle-Sears this fall.)
• “I think each person has to kind of look at their own politics on this. you know.  For example, Jason Miyares, who’s the attorney general. I think that there’s probably a spot in the administration for him if he’s not successful. So I doubt that he wants to to go blow up his relationships in order to, you know, potentially, let’s say hypothetically lose by eight instead of lose by 15. So I think he’s probably more go down with the ship. I think somebody like a Pat Herrity is probably more likely to see some breakage from Trump if he was to emerge as the Republican nominee for LG. Winsome Sears obviously has in the past had some breakage with Trump. So she could always go back towards emphasizing that now that she’s through her primary season.” (Astute, spot-on analysis here by Ben Tribbett about the pros and cons for various Virginia Republicans in deciding whether to stick with Trump – and potentially go down in flames this November – or break with Trump – and, I’d argue, potentially hurt Republican voter enthusiasm/turnout…so still go down in flames this November. In short, if you’re a Virginia Republican right now, you’re in a tough strategic position, and one that frankly you RICHLY deserve to be in, thanks to your support for this horrible, disgraceful, disastrous president. So yeah, going down in flames this November would be VERY well deserved by Earle-Sears, Miyares, VA House Republicans, etc.)
• “…veterans would go right to the top of your list [if there’s] a movement against the Republican Party amongst people in the military or veterans, which wouldn’t surprise me at all with some of the things going on with this administration. And so…obviously, Virginia O2 goes right to the top of your list…if that’s happening, that seat is very likely to flip back to us. And Virginia 01, you start to look at and say, oh maybe Virginia 1 is in play. And I even start to to think, you know is this a cycle that’s big enough that a few months from now, we’re seeing a strong candidate emerge in Virginia 5? That’s going to be make it competitive because, you know, the the height of the Democratic wave is when Tom Perriello was successful in Virginia five. And the math does allow you there where you could win it. But you would have to be at the very, very top of a wave.” (Agreed – at this point, VA02 is *very* much in play for 2026, with VA01 quite possible in play, and VA05 on the edge of being in play – certainly if there’s a “blue wave,” assuming Democrats nominate a super-strong candidate, and also given the fact that the current Congressman from VA05, John McGuire, is HORRENDOUSLY bad, extreme, etc.
• “The revenue that comes from a casino, especially a high-end one in a place like Tyson’s Corner, allows you hundreds of millions of dollars between the state and local government to spend on schools and other public needs. And that doesn’t even factor in the actual economic boost that the economy gets from the thousands of well-paid union jobs that go into a facility like this. And so, you know, to me, it’s a no-brainer…the more that the casino is discussed in terms of you can have the revenue from the casino or you can pay higher real estate taxes. You can have the revenue from the casino or we can pay our teachers less. You can have the revenue from a casino or you can have a meals tax or any of the other choices that the county has to make.” (As I’ve discussed previously with Ben, I’m not generally a fan of casinos, gambling, etc. for a bunch of reasons. There’s a good discussion of the pros and cons here. However, I *do* agree that if the debate over the casino is framed as Ben says – “you can have the revenue from the casino or you can pay higher real estate taxes. You can have the revenue from the casino or we can pay our teachers less” – then it has a shot at winning. That is, of course, if it ever comes to a vote, which…who knows, we’ll see.)
• “…the situation we have in Fairfax right now, where you have the school board budget chair being sued for embezzling money from a company. This is asinine. The idea that like the school board, which is entirely controlled by Democrats, isn’t able to even act. They don’t need to remove him from the school board. That’s up to him whether he wants to resign or not. But that they’re going to keep him in a leadership position overseeing the budget while there’s like serious allegations of embezzlement.” (This has got to be a very uncomfortable, awkward position for the Fairfax County School Board. In the end, I’m not sure if they’re strategy of not saying anything publicly, not taking any action, etc. is going to be sustainable, but we shall see…)