Of course, it’s possible that by this November, things will look a LOT different in this country in a variety of ways (e.g., the economy could be REALLY bad by then) and public opinion (Trump’s approval rating actually could be a lot LOWER – or not), and that the special election results last night in Florida’s 1st/6th districts and in Wisconsin will end up not being predictive of results in Virginia. But on the other hand…WOW. I mean, Dems “overperforming” November 2024 results in Florida by an average of around 19 points, and overperforming in Wisconsin statewide by around 11 points??? [Note: obviously, special elections aren’t the same as general elections, but Wisconsin’s election yesterday was statewide and high-turnout, with national attention, so quite possibly comparable to the environment we’ll see in Virginia come November…]
If you extrapolate that to Virginia – and again, we should be somewhat cautious here, and also with the caveat that we all have to WORK to make this happen, as nothing is inevitable – we’re talking about Abigail Spanberger potentially winning by something like 17 points (!) in November – similar to what Bob McDonnell won by in 2009, in a “red tsunami” year when the “Tea Party” was raging, Republican voters were fired up and Dems were asleep, etc.. And if *that* happened, in turn that would almost certainly mean that whoever Dems nominate for LG and AG would win (honestly, most people these days are going to vote straight ticket anyway, so it probably doesn’t matter much *electorally* whether it’s Shannon Taylor or Jay Jones for AG, or whether it’s Aaron Rouse, Ghazala Hashmi or Levar Stoney for LG – so mostly just vote for the candidate you think would make the best Attorney General or Lt. Governor). Finally, it would also mean large Democratic gains in the House of Delegates, possibly getting Dems up to 60 seats, compared to their 51 seats now (note: Dems were at 55 HoD seats leading into the 2021 elections).
Anyway, again, let’s not take anything for granted, but right now, heading into the November 2025 elections here, I’d *much* rather be Abigail Spanberger than Winsome Earle-Sears, and I’d much rather be Virginia Democrats than Virginia Republicans.
P.S. Interesting that Elon Musk poured 10s of millions of $$$ into Wisconsin, and if anything it HURT his preferred candidate. If he tries that in Virginia, would we see the same backlash by (Democratic) voters here?
P.P.S. See below for a memo by the House Majority PAC, which argues: “Democrats dramatically overperformed in Florida, and achieved victory in Wisconsin’s State Supreme Court race, revealing that the political headwinds are firmly at our backs heading into 2026.” And they specifically name VA01 (Republican Rob Wittman) and VA02 (Republican Jen Kiggans) as seats Democrats would be on track to “flip” in November 2026…
P.P.P.S. One more point – Can a Virginia governor’s race be a blowout? Yes, definitely. For instance, in 2009, Bob McDonnell (R) won by 17+ points. And in 2017, Ralph Northam (D) won by 9 points. So these elections definitely aren’t always close or competitive…
UPDATE 7:35 am – Check out Sam Shirazi’s podcast on the WI Supreme Court election results last night. As Sam says, “both parties were looking at Wisconsin because it was the first big statewide contest, a lot of voters showing up” and “they gave a pretty clear answer in Wisconsin with the Democrats winning the state Supreme Court race.” Also, excellent point about Florida last night – “Democrats did relatively well in the Pensacola area, which is obviously home to a large military installation…I thought it was interesting that Democrats did pretty well in Pensacola military area. And, you know, you have to think, is that also going to happen in Hampton Roads?… if the issue with the federal workers reaches Hampton Roads, I think the Republicans are going to be in even more danger than just the issues they’re already having in Northern Virginia.”
TO: Interested Parties
FROM: House Majority PAC
DATE: April 1, 2025
RE: Elections in WI And FL Show Path Towards Flipping The House in 2026
Tonight, Democrats dramatically overperformed in Florida, and achieved victory in Wisconsin’s State Supreme Court race, revealing that the political headwinds are firmly at our backs heading into 2026.
The Issues
Since January, Trump and Republicans have broken promise after promise, voting to gut Medicaid and empowering Elon Musk to raise costs for hardworking Americans in order to fund tax cuts for the wealthy:
- PRICES: According to recent polls from CBS News and AP-NORC, Americans are souring on Trump’s economic policies and don’t believe he is prioritizing lowering costs.
- TRUMP TARIFFS=HIGHER COSTS: Per AP-NORC, 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of trade policy – and while he “couldn’t care less” if prices go up, the vast majority of Americans will.
- MEDICAID: Medicaid, which House Republicans recently voted to cut, emerged as a crucial issue in Florida. GOP Medicaid cuts will cost many Republicans re-election in key House districts across the country where large swaths of the electorate rely on the popular program for health care.
- ELON MUSK: Pumping millions into the Wisconsin Supreme Court race in an overt attempt to buy the seat did not sit well with voters. As Musk’s approval rating continues to sink, Democrats should continue to highlight his attacks on the benefits Americans have earned.
Democratic Overperformance
Are there House Republican retirements coming soon? Based on tonight’s results, the likely answer is YES.
If you apply tonight’s overperformance in FL-01 and FL-06 across the House battlefield in 2026, Democrats would be on track to flip over 40 seats, including key toss-up districts like:
- AK-AL
- AZ-01
- AZ-02
- AZ-06
- CA-03
- CA-22
- CA-40
- CA-41
- CO-03
- CO-08
- FL-13
- IA-01
- IA-03
- MI-07
- MI-10
- MT-01
- NE-02
- NJ-07
- NY-01
- NY-17
- PA-01
- PA-07
- PA-08
- PA-10
- VA-01
- VA-02
- WI-01
- WI-03
###
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