So, according to new polling by Civiqs, Trump’s now at a miserable 38% approval overall in Virginia — and just 32% among women, about 30% for those under age 50, etc. As Sam Shirazi says, “Obviously some big headwinds for Virginia GOP.”
Of course, keep in mind that – as I wrote about a bit over a week ago – there’s not a clear/strong correlation across all these elections between a president’s approval rating and the outcome of the Virginia governor’s election. Thus, while in 2017 and 2021 – and also to an extent in 2005 – a president’s low approval rating corresponded with a loss for the Virginia gubernatorial candidate of the same party; but in 2001, 2009 and 2013, we really didn’t see a connection (e.g., in 2001, George W. Bush’s approval rating was at 88% post-9/11, yet Democrat Mark Warner won the Virginia governor’s race).
Still, having said that, low approval ratings for the president of your party certainly don’t HELP your candidate, all else being equal. And it’s even worse – MUCH worse, potentially – if the low approval ratings for the president of your party correspond with voter anger and intensity against that president. Because, as we know, angry voters tend to turn out to the polls, while content or demoralized or unexcited voters tend to stay home. In 2017, for instance, it was *Democrats* who were super-pissed-off at the Trump Republican Party – and who turned out strongly in November to elect Ralph Northam and help Democrats pick up a massive 15 seats in the House of Delegates, almost taking back control of that chamber for the first time in many years. As for 2021, Democrats actually *did* turn out in large numbers, but Republican turnout – fueled by anger at the Biden administration, inflation, COVID, etc – was through the ROOF, near presidential levels in some of the “reddest” parts of Virginia. Which enabled Youngkin to squeeze out a narrow victory in November 2021.
So what will happen in November 2025? At the moment, at least – and of course things could change a little or a lot by the fall – Trump’s approval ratings are very low in Virginia, PLUS the intensity (white-hot rage) right now seems to be more with Democrats. So that’s where we are in April, but what will things look like in October/November? We’ll see, but if it’s similar to now, or potentially even wore for Republicans by then (if the economy slips into a recession, for instance), then…yeah, I’d rather be the “blue” team than the “red” team for sure. Oh, and then there’s the fact that the Republican ticket could be a mess, after Glenn Youngkin called on their LG nominee, John Reid, to drop out.
But…yep, standard disclaimers/warnings: do NOT take anything for granted, do NOT get overconfident, make sure you DO vote and remind everyone you know to vote (Democratic, up and down the ballot, of course), etc. Because, in the end, we can only control our own actions, not what happens nationally, with Trump’s approval ratings, etc. So let’s stay focused.
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