As is often the case, if you want strong coverage of Virginia politics, the corporate media is not the place to look – while you’ll find some excellent stuff in smaller, independent publications like the Augusta Free Press, and also by independent analysts like Sam Shirazi. Case in point: this past week’s two, dueling polls, one by Roanoke College showing Abigail Spanberger with a massive, 17-point (43%-26%) lead over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the 2025 VA governor’s race; the other by Virginia FREE (a pro-Republican, right-wing, anti-labor, etc. group) and carried out by a pollster which a column in the Harvard Crimson described as “a methodologically flawed poll that often promotes a right-wing political agenda,” showing Spanberger with just a 4-point (52%-48%) lead.
So it’s most certainly a totally fair and interesting question to ask: why are the results from these two polls so different (15 points: a 17-point Spanberger lead vs. a 2-point Spanberger lead)? And political media should definitely look into this, then explain to their readers/listeners/viewers what they think accounts for the discrepancy. With that in mind, here’s what we got in terms of coverage of these two polls.
- The Washington Post, with its basically unlimited resources due to the fact that it’s owned by one of the wealthiest men in the world, literally reported on NEITHER of these polls! Of course, that shouldn’t be surprising, given the WaPo’s thin, weak, abysmal coverage of Virginia politics. Just check out their Virginia page and you’ll find that in March, April and May, there’s been essentially ZERO coverage of the 2025 Virginia Democratic LG or AG primaries; and basically no coverage of ANY of the statewide races, other than multiple articles on the controversy over the Republicans’ Lt. Governor nominee, John Reid, who Glenn Youngkin tried to force off the ticket due to “racy photos” of the openly gay Reid – on “a Tumblr account,” the WaPo reported, which supposedly “reposted photos that ranged from explicit images of male genitalia, to tamer photos of men in skimpy bathing suits and underwear.” And that’s about it for the WaPo’s coverage of the LG or AG races. As for the governor’s race, not much coverage there either, with most of it focused on far-right freakazoid Amanda Chase, Abigail Spanberger and “right to work,” and how supposedly “Trump used to be kryptonite for GOP in Virginia, but not this year.” Alrighty…
- Solid coverage by the Virginia Mercury on the Roanoke College poll, with a quick mention (but no analysis of) the Virginia FREE poll.
- Dwayne Yancey in the Cardinal News looked at both polls, and I agree with his conclusion that “both polls make one thing clear, though: Virginians don’t like President Donald Trump and that complicates things for Republicans.” And I also agree that different samples of voters – registered vs “likely” voters, for instance – accounts for some of the difference in the two polls’ results. And I agree that “Democrats appear more excited about this year’s election,” “Independents are leaning Democratic this year,” Virginians “don’t like Earle-Sears,” etc. Where I disagree with the Cardinal News’ analysis is that I think it’s crucial to note that, whatever its flaws, the Roanoke College polls is a non-partisan poll, while Virginia FREE is *very much* a partisan (pro-Republican, anti-labor, anti-regulation, etc, etc.) organization, while “HarrisX” has been criticized by the likes of former Ted Cruz for President Director of Research, Analytics and Digital Strategy Christopher S. Wilson as “trash” with “insane cross-tabs.” So sure, it’s possible that HarrisX did a good job on this specific poll of Spanberger vs. Earle-Sears, but it’s also possible that for the aforementioned reasons, it’s got a strong Republican bias – and that should at least be mentioned in any analysis of the poll.
- The Richmond Times-Dispatch covered ONLY the Virginia FREE poll, totally ignoring the Roanoke College poll, which is a very odd – and telling? – choice. I mean, seriously, they didn’t think the Roanoke College poll was trustworthy but one by a pro-Republican organization and a sketchy pollster was worth reporting on, uncritically to boot? Very, very weird.
- The Roanoke Times correctly noted that there is a VERY high undecided percentage in the Roanoke College poll, without mentioning the Virginia FREE poll as far as I can see…
- Virginia Scope covered both polls, noting that the survey was “conducted by Pantheon Insight, a group that was founded by current executive director of the Republican Party of Virginia, Ken Nunnencamp, and HarrisX,” and that “Saxman’s consulting firm received $72,443 from Earle-Sears between 2021 and 2023, according to VPAP.” Ding! Ding! Ding! Virginia Scope editor Brandon Jarvis for the WIN on this one!
- Last but most DEFINITELY not least, perhaps the best coverage I saw of these polls was in the small-but-consistently-excellent Augusta Free Press, by editor Chris Graham, who has been covering Virginia politics for over 20 years and really knows what he’s talking about. Also, unlike so many in the media, Graham actually says what he thinks, pulls no punches, but backs it all up with facts. So, according to Graham, first of all it’s absolutely ridiculous that the Virginia FREE/HarrisX poll has zero undecided voters (it’s 52%-48%) – “We’re more than five months out from November, the campaigns have barely gotten off the ground, and we’re supposed to believe everybody has already made up their minds. O … K.” Graham also notes: “The polling firms working for Virginia FREE indicated in a memo that Spanberger’s lead grows to seven points among ‘high level’ of interest voters, and 20 points among ‘very high level of interest’ voters. These numbers are in line with the Roanoke College rendering of the electorate, which has Spanberger at 43 percent, and Earle-Sears at 26 percent.” Finally, regarding “the question, what is going on here,” Graham argues – correctly, IMHO – “it could be what we’re seeing with the discrepancy in the numbers is, the Virginia FREE poll has a thumb or two on the scales. Pantheon Insight is headed up by Amanda Iovino, who served as the polling director for MAGA Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 gubernatorial campaign. That’s one thumb. The other: according to data from the Virginia Public Access Project, Saxman’s political consulting firm received $67,644 in payments from Earle-Sears’ PAC in 2022 and 2023, plus an additional $15,000 from the Earle-Sears Inaugural Committee and $4,784 from her 2021 lieutenant-governor campaign. I’m not sure we can accurately call the Virginia FREE thing a poll. Donald Trump would lean toward election interference, and get the DOJ involved, if he was on the other side of it.” LOL, exactly! But you’ll never read analysis like that in the WaPo, RTD, etc, etc, that’s for sure…
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