Important Point by Sam Shirazi: Assuming VA Dems Win in November, “That means essentially lieutenant governor and attorney general are going to be picked in the [June 17] primary”

In yesterday’s Network NOVA “Power Lunch,” Virginia politics analyst Sam Shirazi made an important point that really can’t be overstated, namely:

“Talk to your friends; less-engaged people, they don’t know there’s a primary [on June 17 for Lt. Governor and Attorney General]. And the reality is, you know no one wants to get ahead of themselves, but historical trends suggest Democrats are going to be doing well this year in Virginia. And so let’s just assume that Democrats are going to win, they’re going to clean the statewide offices. That means essentially lieutenant governor and attorney general are going to be picked in the primary. So obviously, November is important – obviously you want to win those elections if you’re a Democrat. But the person who will be Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General are going to be picked in the June primary. And so if you care who’s going to be the next Lieutenant Governor and who’s the next Attorney General, you should go vote in the primary. And the primary is going to have, I would say, less than 1/4 of the total turnout of the general election…I’m talking to non-political people about the primary, I would say almost everyone I talk to who’s not engaged in politics doesn’t know there’s a primary in June.”

Just to put some numbers on this, I went back to 2005 and checked, and actually it’s even LESS than 1/4 of the total turnout in the primaries in June compared to the general elections in November.  Here are the numbers.

So as you can see, the number of people voting in the November general elections for Gov/LG/AG is *far* higher than those voting in the June Democratic primaries for Gov/LG/AG. For instance, in 2005, the ratio was 11:1 (I remember walking in to vote that day for the Democratic LG primary and it was super quiet, the poll workers were practically falling asleep, you could hear flies buzzing around, etc.); in 2009 it was 6:1; in 2013 it was a massive 16:1 ratio (!), in 2017 it was about 5:1, and in 2021 it was a nearly 7:1 ratio. And yet, as Sam Shirazi correctly pointed out, the June primaries in at least a couple cases – certainly in 2009 and 2017 – basically determined who would be elected in November. Regardless, it’s VERY important that you don’t just vote in November, as the primaries are often where the direction of the party is determined, as well as where the ultimate winners in November are decided.

So…yes, the June primaries get only a tiny fraction of the money and news coverage as the November general elections, but arguably they’re as important – sometimes MORE important, in terms of how much your vote actually matters – than in November. So make sure you vote on June 17 at your regular polling place, or vote early/absentee (either in person or by mail), and remind everyone you know to do the same!

P.S. So, if the VA Dem LG primary on June 17 sees only 400k turnout (or less?), the winner in a 6-person field might only get…125k-150k or even lower. Another example of why we need Ranked Choice Voting.

P.P.S. Also note that the last time Dems had only LG and AG primaries – no governor’s primary – was in 2013. And the turnout then was only 145k! Doubtful it will be that low this year, but still…pretty crazy how few people pay attention to these primaries.