Per VPAP, the results from last Tuesday’s Virginia Democratic primary are all about final. So where did the winning LG and AG candidates (Ghazala Hashmi and Jay Jones) rack up their biggest margins?
- In the greater Richmond area (Richmond, Henrico, Chesterfield, Powhatan, Goochland, Hanover, Fluvanna), plus Albemarle/Charlottesville, Ghazala Hashmi racked up a massive 20,599-vote margin over runner-up LG candidate Levar Stoney. Given that Hashmi only defeated Stoney overall by 4,001 votes statewide, obviously that 20.5k margin in the Richmond area (plus Albemarle/Charlottesville) was enough (5x the margin of victory) to propel Hashmi to the narrow win on Tuesday.
- Hashmi’s biggest margins within the Richmond area were in Richmond City itself (+10,509 votes), then Chesterfield (+3,232), Henrico (+1,843), Hanover (+1,063). Add in Albemarle (+1,570) and Charlottesville (+1,306), and you’ve accounted for the vast majority of Hashmi’s 20,599-vote margin in the greater Richmond area plus Albemarle/Charlottesville.
- In the Hampton Roads area (I’m counting VA Beach, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Newport News, Isle of Wight, Northampton, James City County, Williamsburg, York, Charles City County, Southampton, Accomack, Mathews, Poquoson, Gloucester), Jay Jones racked up a massive 18,238-vote margin over runner-up AG candidate Shannon Taylor. Given that Jones only defeated Shannon Taylor by 10,667 votes statewide, obviously that 18,238-vote margin in the Hampton Roads area more than accounts for Jones’ victory on Tuesday.
- Jones’ biggest margins within the Hampton Roads area were in: Norfolk (+4,721 votes), Chesapeake (+4,289), Virginia Beach (+3,256), Suffolk (+2,080), and Portsmouth (+1,691). Just those five jurisdictions alone add up to a 16,037-vote margin for Jones, close to his overall 18,238-vote margin in the Hampton Roads jurisdictions I used for my calculations.
By the way, Shannon Taylor did very well – but not quite well enough to overcome Jay Jones’ lead from Hampton Roads – in places like Fairfax County (+5,312 votes) and Alexandria (+2,030 votes). What she clearly needed was bigger margins in places she won narrowly, like Loudoun County (which she won by just 153 votes, despite the endorsement of Loudoun-based former AG and former State Senator Mark Herring) and Albemarle County. As for her home base of Henrico County, Taylor won that by 6,439 votes, which is great – but unlike with Ghazala Hashmi, we didn’t see Taylor dominate the entire Richmond area, with Jones winning Richmond City and Chesterfield County narrowly, for instance. In the end, to win, Taylor would have needed to expand her base beyond Henrico in the Richmond area, kinda like Hashmi, and also probably win Loudoun bigger – but she didn’t do that, and that was the “ballgame,” pretty much.
So what else jumps out at you from the detailed election results?
P.S. Good point in the comments: “I was amazed that Rouse won Va. Beach by 60 (70-10-10) and Norfolk by 50! Seems like a shoo-in to run against Kiggans, if he wants it.”
