With just 99 days until the 2025 Virginia elections – for Governor, LG, AG and all 100 seats in the House of Delegates – I just got the following press release (see below) from the folks at State Navigate (Chaz Nuttycombe et al). The bottom line is good news for Virginia Democrats – although, as always, let’s take nothing for granted, “run through the tape,” etc.
- “Democrats are heavily favored to win every level of the state government in Virginia this year. For control of the majority in the House of Delegates and each of the statewide races, there’s at least an 89% chance that Democrats win each, depending on the forecast.”
Also, see below (or click on the links) for State Navigate’s maps for Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General and House of Delegates. In short, Dems right now have a 96% chance of winning the governor’s race (most likely by about 11 points), an 89% chance of winning the LG race (most likely by about 8 points), a 90% chance of winning the AG race (most likely by about 8 points), and a 91% chance of winning the House of Delegates (most likely with 58 seats out of 100). So, again, let’s not take anything for granted, but this is encouraging. And remember, if we can do this, it will send a clear and loud message nationally about what we think about the horrrendous damage Trump, DOGE, etc. are doing to our Commonwealth and to our country.
We’re now less than 100 days from the November election this year, and State Navigate has released its first-ever forecasts just in the nick of time.
The State Navigate team has put together forecasts for the Virginia House of Delegates, and the statewide races in Virginia including Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General.
Democrats are heavily favored to win every level of the state government in Virginia this year. For control of the majority in the House of Delegates and each of the statewide races, there’s at least an 89% chance that Democrats win each, depending on the forecast.
Here’s what features are available in the House of Delegates forecast:
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- Projections by margin and chances of victory in each House of Delegates district, mapped out and in a table
- A histogram of the likelihood of each seat makeup of the House of Delegates
- Identifying the likelihood that each seat will decide a majority or supermajority
- The odds of whether there will be a Democratic supermajority, majority, tie, or Republican majority in the chamber throughout the election
Here’s what features are available in the statewide forecasts:
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- Overall projections by margin and chances of victory in each race
- County-level projections of the margin of victory for each candidate
- The odds throughout the election of who is favored to win and by what margin
- A live list of what polls have been publicly conducted and released for each statewide election
The methodology for the forecasts will be published later this week.
Check the forecasts each day to track who’s favored going into the general election!
Yours in service,
– The State Navigate Team
