See below for an excellent analysis by Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08)’s Deputy Chief of Staff Aaron Fritschner on this morning’s The Hill article, “Virginia GOP grows cautiously optimistic in governor’s race.” As I said in the news clips this morning, this is a classic “The Hill” article – all “horse race,” quotes from Republican operatives, etc. Also, I’d recommend that everyone bookmark this one to look back on in a few weeks or after the election to see what ended up happening. In the meantime, see below for Aaron Fritschner’s analysis, with my comments (in parentheses/green) where I have additional thoughts/something to add.
- “These pieces were inevitable given vibes and the rule of three being met by 1) Sears shakeup 2) a poll 3) a sign, but Winsome’s campaign is still very bad and its mistakes, which remain largely unresolved, will be blindingly obvious in hindsight when this is over.” (Also, I’d add that the media BADLY wants a “horse race,” so they’re going to take literally ANY piece of evidence, even a questionable poll, and run with that.)
- “The shakeup meant she could go a few days without a story about what a disaster her campaign is and how much the VA GOP hates each other right now. This is an improvement. When the Browns won their first game in 2 years that was also an improvement. But also, like, yikes.” (Hahaha, excellent analogy!)
- “I could write a 20-post thread just on the Roanoke poll, but I will spare you. I’ll just say that the John Fredericks poll analysis here is a great example of a very popular form of poll analysis that is about as wrong as you can get [the second half of his quote is 100% correct]” (Here are my thoughts on the Roanoke College poll – and why it should be taken with a huge grain, or even a PILLAR, of salt!)
- “Many people including politicos reduce a poll to the head-to-head number. Looking at these polls they see the numbers 13 and 7, and say “closing the gap.” Campaign veterans do not do that, they look at all the numbers. They will see: 43 & 46, 26 & 39, 28 & 14. Each tells a story.”
- “Put that together and the Roanoke polls say something like- From May to August 1) undecided shrinks from 28 to 14 (normal) 2) Sears goes from 26 to 39 (obvious base consolidation) 3) Spanberger goes from 43 to 46 (gaining support as the “tightening” is supposed to have happened).”
- “Campaign vets will also see the sample size (602, 652), dates, the quality of the pollster (mid), their record pushing undecideds (relatedly also mid), weighting (nonsensical), and various other things. But that aside, the story they’ll see in Roanoke is not ‘closing the gap.'” (Clearly, political reportesr are not campaign vets…like Aaron Fritschner, who has worked on multiple campaigns.)
- “The story these two polls tell me is Sears’ campaign was a train wreck well into the year and they’ve finally managed to bring Republicans home in August. That doesn’t get you anywhere near 50 in VA. Meanwhile Spanberger was talking to independents she needs to win, with success.”
- “And that brings me to the final point- how did Sears bring the Republicans home, and why is Spanberger succeeding with independents? The answer to this one is neither rocket surgery nor sexy enough to get horse race pieces, it’s just campaigns executing the nuts and bolts.” (Also, does this far-right Republican ticket have much – or any – appeal to moderates, centrists, swing voters, etc? Hard to believe.)
How did Sears bring Republicans home? Locker rooms, mostly. A quick screencap of mentions in the past month, and note it isn’t just posting, it’s ads, interviews, DTCs, etc. If the search included “girls” and “schools” it would cover nearly all of her messaging since early July pic.twitter.com/pmGgSKCqlO
— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) August 25, 2025
- “If Youngkin won by focusing on post-pandemic normalcy and the economy while campaigning against an unpopular White House, Sears is in trouble. The pandemic issue isn’t very salient and she isn’t using it. She’s ignoring the economy. She’s embracing a deeply unpopular White House.” (Also note, in 2021, there was a Democrat in the White House, and an increasingly unpopular one at that, while Virginia almost *always* goes opposite for governor of whatever the party in the White House happens to be. Thus, in 2009, one year after Barack Obama won the presidency – and won Virginia by 6 points – Republican Bob McDonnell won the governorship by 17 points. And in 2017, one year after Trump won the presidency, Ralph Northam won the governor’s race by 9 points. And in 2021, one year after Biden won both nationally and in Virginia, Youngkin won the governor’s race – albeit narrowly.)
- “I would simply ask- what issues will be salient to independent/undecided/persuadable voters in 2025. Looking at her message strategy, Abigail Spanberger’s answer appears to be: the economy, inflation, costs, and health care. These are topics Winsome Sears basically never touches.” (Exactly – just go look at her Facebook page or her press releases or whatever, and it’s overwhelmingly NOT about Trump, the economy, lost federal jobs, inflation, healthcare, etc. Instead, it’s pretty much all about transgender kids in bathrooms/on sports teams, crime, “illegals,” and…not much else, really. In 2021, Youngkin had the resources and lack of track record so he could be all things to all people, with his more “mainstream” messaging – e.g., not messaging tailored to the right-wing “base” – more focused on the issues Aaron Fritschner notes above. Plus, of course, frustrations coming out of the COVID pandemic, particularly regarding school closures and masking protocols)
- “The focus on costs and inflation is salient nationally as Trump’s tariffs drive up prices, hurt job growth, and weaken consumer sentiment. But it’s soooo much worse in Virginia. This is why Sears isn’t following Youngkin’s 2021 path on economic messaging.” (Exactly – what can the 2025 Republican ticket even say about any of this, with Virginia’s economy “either currently in recession or at high risk of recession” – thanks overwhelmingly to Trump’s policies on tariffs, federal job reductions, etc.?)
- “It’s politics, crazy things happen. This race is about to heat up. But if you’re buying Sears’ ‘momentum’ I guess I’d ask- 1) is 39% at Labor Day good for an incumbent 2) does Trump cutting funding to NoVa schools really help Sears 3) is a poll that has her down 7 actually good.” (The answers to these questions are obviously NO.)
- “On the other hand, if Spanberger wins and we look back at this Sears boomlet I think some may wonder why anyone thought a rando with a sign and messaging about high school locker rooms would matter more to swing voters in Chesterfield than sharply rising prices and unemployment.” (That’s the thing, this was just some random volunteer with a stupid/offensive sign; not someone who’s a Democratic elected official, campaign spokesperson or employee, etc. And Spanberger et al quickly condemned the sign. So…what do Republicans really have to work with here? Not a lot, although that won’t stop them from trying to stoke OUTRAGE over that “rando with a sign”).
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