See below for a press release and highlights from the new Virginia poll by CNU’s Wason Center. A few past polls by the Wason Center include: a January 2025 poll which had Spanberger up 5 points; a October 23, 2024 poll which had Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) up 1 point over Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal (Kiggans ended up winning by 4 points); an October 7, 2024 poll which had Kamala Harris up 11 points and Tim Kaine up 20 points (Harris ended up winning by 6 points, Kaine by 9 points); an October 27, 2021 poll which had Terry McAuliffe up 1 points over Glenn Youngkin (Youngkin ended up winning by 2 points); an October 28, 2020 poll which had Biden up 12 points over Trump (Biden ended up winning by 10 points); an October 15, 2018 poll which had Rep. Scott Taylor (R-VA02) up 7 points over Democrat Elaine Luria (Luria ended up winning by 2 points); a November 6, 2017 poll which had Ralph Northam up 6 points over Ed Gillespie (Northam ended up winning by 9 points); etc.
In sum, it seems like the Wason Center’s polls haven’t shown particular bias in one direction or the other, but they’ve missed the winner several times and wildly overestimated Harris’ and Kaine’s margins of victories in 2024. Still, at least the Wason Center is a serious, nonpartisan, quality poll…unlike some of the fake “polls” put out by right-wing outfits paid by Glenn Youngkin or whatever. With that, here are the results from the new Wason Center poll.
- “Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle Sears by 12 points, 52% to 40% among Virginia likely voters; 8% remain undecided or don’t know.”
- “In the Lieutenant Governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by 11 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 37%; 15% say they are undecided or don’t know.”
- “In the race for Attorney General, Incumbent Jason Miyares trails Jay Jones by 7 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 41%; 12% say they are undecided or don’t know.”
- The generic House of Delegates ballot question has it at Dems 51%-Republicans 43%…and 8-point Democratic lead which hopefully translates into 60 seats or so (out of 100) in the House of Delegates. Something to work for, anyway!
- “Top of mind issues for Virginia likely voters include inflation/cost of living (21%), threats to democracy (18%), K-12 education (9%), immigration (9%), and crime (9%).”
- “48% of Virginia likely voters approve of Governor Youngkin’s job performance while 42% disapprove; 9% say they don’t know. Just 39% of Virginia likely voters approve of President Trump’s job performance while 58% disapprove; 3% say they don’t know….The nationalization of state elections makes President Trump’s approval rating particularly relevant to Virginia elections, which provides a downward pull for Republican candidates and a boost for Democrats.”
- “Democratic voters have an enthusiasm advantage with 69% indicating they are very enthusiastic compared to 56% of Republicans and 42% of Independents.”
- “Candidates for Lieutenant Governor are not particularly well-known among Virginia likely voters. Republican candidate John Reid has a +2 favorability rating (13% favorable to 11% unfavorable), though a large percentage (75%) say they do not know enough about him to have an opinion. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi also has a +2 favorability rating (15% favorable to 13% unfavorable), though she is also relatively
unknown to Virginia likely voters with 73% saying no opinion/don’t know.” (This is a very sad commentary on the media, as well as on voters for not closely looking into these candidates…) - “Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares has a +8 favorability rating (26% favorable to 18% unfavorable) with 56% saying no opinion/don’t know. Democratic candidate Jay Jones has a +4 favorability rating (23% favorable to 19% unfavorable); he is slightly less well known than Miyares with 58% indicating no opinion/don’t know.” (Same comment as in the previous bullet.)
In the Race for Governor Spanberger Leads Earle Sears by 12 Points Among Virginia Likely Voters; Hashmi Leads Reid by 11 points in Lt. Governor Contest; Jones Leads Miyares by 7 Points in Attorney General Race
NEWPORT NEWS, VA — With early voting beginning Friday, September 19th and Election Day on November 4th, the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University surveyed Virginia likely voters on the statewide races and key policy issues. Virginia has historically voted against the party in the White House in gubernatorial races, with the exception of 2013. Our results suggest this trend may continue, though shifts are possible as voters learn more about the candidates. The Wason Center will survey these races two more times before Election Day to track any shifts.
A link to the full release can be found below.
Summary of Key Findings:
- Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle Sears by 12 points, 52% to 40% among Virginia likely voters; 8% remain undecided or don’t know.
- In the Lieutenant Governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by 11 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 37%; 15% say they are undecided or don’t know.
- In the race for Attorney General, Incumbent Jason Miyares trails Jay Jones by 7 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 41%; 12% say they are undecided or don’t know.
- Top of mind issues for Virginia likely voters include inflation/cost of living (21%), threats to democracy (18%), K-12 education (9%), immigration (9%), and crime (9%).
- 48% of Virginia likely voters approve of Governor Youngkin’s job performance while 42% disapprove; 9% say they don’t know. Just 39% of Virginia likely voters approve of President Trump’s job performance while 58% disapprove; 3% say they don’t know.
CLICK HERE to access the full survey report.
