New Emerson College Poll of 2025 VA Governor’s Race: Spanberger 52%-Earle-Sears 42%; Early Vote So Far Spanberger 60%-Earle-Sears 38%

A new poll of the Virginia governor’s race is out this morning, this time by Emerson College polling. Here are the takeaways.

• “A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the 2025 Virginia Governor’s race finds Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, 52% to 42%, with 5% of voters undecided.”
• “Those who have already voted early in Virginia report voting for Spanberger, 60% to 38%, while likely voters who have yet to cast a ballot support Spanberger 50% to 43%.”
• “Since the first Emerson College poll of the race in January 2025, Spanberger’s support increased ten points from 42% to 52%, while Earle-Sears picked up one percentage point, from 41% to 42%.”
• “Spanberger’s support also increased among voters under 50: what was once a narrow 41% to 39% edge has grown into a 27-point lead, 59% to 32%.”
• “Earle-Sears has not consolidated support among older voters; in January, those 50 and older were evenly divided, 43% for Spanberger and 42% for Earle-Sears. Nine months later, the group remains split with 49% for Earle-Sears and 47% for Spanberger.”
• “Spanberger and Earle-Sears’ share of support generally reflects their favorability in the state: 51% have a favorable view of Spanberger, while 42% have a favorable view of Earle-Sears. Thirty-eight percent have an unfavorable view of Spanberger, while 44% have an unfavorable view of Earle-Sears.”
• “Governor Glenn Youngkin holds a 46% job approval rating, while 41% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor. President Donald Trump holds a 42% job approval rating, while 54% disapprove of the job he is doing in the Oval Office. “
• “The top issue for Virginia voters is the economy at 35%, followed by threats to democracy at 20%, education at 10%, healthcare at 9%, housing affordability at 8%, immigration at 6%, and crime at 6%.”
• “A majority of voters (76%) think the personal property tax, or car tax, should be eliminated in Virginia, while 15% think it should not; 9% are unsure. Eliminating this tax is popular across partisan lines: 89% of Republicans, 66% of Democrats and 73% of independent voters support eliminating the car tax. “
• “Forty-two percent support more data centers, or large facilities storing and processing digital information, being built in Virginia, while 39% oppose more centers being built; 18% are unsure.”