The last poll by CNU’s Wason Center, on September 18, had the Virginia statewide races as follows: Abigail Spanberger 52%-Winsome Earle-Sears 40% (+12 points); Ghazala Hashmi 48%-John Reid 37% (+11 points); Jay Jones 48%-Jason Miyares 41% (+7 points). Now, a new poll by the Wason Center is out, and the results are fairly similar…just a bit tighter. Here are the main findings, with comments by me in parentheses/bold/blue after each item.
1. “Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 10 points, 52% to 42% among Virginia likely voters; 6% remain undecided or don’t know.” (Not bad…but 2 points closer than in the last poll.)
2. “In the Lieutenant Governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by 9 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 39%; 12% say they are undecided or don’t know.” (Again, not bad, but 2 points closer than in the last poll.)
3. “In the race for Attorney General, Democrat Jay Jones leads Incumbent Republican Jason Miyares by 6 points among Virginia likely voters, 49% to 43%; 9% say they are undecided or don’t know.” (One point closer than in the last poll; also note that this poll was conducted Sept. 29 to Oct. 1, 2025, so before the recent news about Jay Jones’ texts with Del. Carrie Coyner about Todd Gilbert)
4. “Top of mind issues for Virginia likely voters include threats to democracy (19%), inflation (18%), immigration (10%), and healthcare (10%).” (Only 3% say “transgender policy” is their top issue; K-12 education is at 8%)
5. “Virginia likely voters say Spanberger would do a better job than Earle-Sears handling climate change (+26), reproductive rights (+20), health care (+18), transgender policy (+13), K-12 education (+12), threats to democracy (+10), inflation (+9), federal workforce reductions (+8), and gun policy (+7), immigration (+6), taxes (+4) and crime (+2).” (Earle-Sears doesn’t lead on any issue, but she’s furthest behind on climate change – which has barely been mentioned in this campaign, probably because only 1% of voters say it’s “top of mind” for them…which is really tragic, by the way, as the climate crisis – along with threats to democracy – arguably should be the #1 issue on people’s minds…but nope.)
6. “50% of Virginia likely voters approve of Governor Youngkin’s job performance while 42% disapprove; 8% say they don’t know. President Trump’s approval remains underwater with 41% of Virginia likely voters saying they approve of President Trump’s job performance while 56% disapprove; 3% say they don’t know.” (Youngkin’s up a bit from the last Wason Center poll, when he was at 48%-42%; Trump’s also up a bit, from 39%-58% in the last Wason Center poll. Not sure what would have caused either of those to move over the past few weeks, let alone in a positive direction, so most likely it’s just a slightly different sample than the last poll.)
Other findings:
- “14% of the Virginia likely voters we surveyed indicate they have already voted in the Virginia elections and there is some variation by partisanship; 19% of Democrats say they have already voted compared to 13% of Independents and 8% of Republicans. While Democrats have traditionally used early/mail in voting more frequently than Republicans, the Republican Party has promoted early voting more heavily in recent elections, which is likely reflected in these results.” (Interesting to see such a big advantage for Democrats in the early vote…)
- “Enthusiasm between Republicans and Democrats has tightened since our last survey with 61% of Democrats indicating they are very enthusiastic compared to 59% of Republicans and 48% of Independents; September 18th numbers were 69% (D), 56% (R) and 42% (I) respectively.” (This seems kind of odd; maybe a sampling issue? Any other plausible explanation for the changes?)
- “Democratic candidate and former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has a +5 favorability rating (43% favorable to 38% unfavorable) with 18% indicating they have no opinion/don’t know. Current Lieutenant Governor and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears has a -1 favorability rating (38% favorable to 39% unfavorable); 23% say no opinion/don’t know.” (Yeah, the media’s done a horrible job covering these candidates…because if they knew Winsome Earle-Sears’ extreme positions and statements, she’d have a lot lower favorability rating.)
- “Candidates for Lieutenant Governor are still not particularly well-known among Virginia likely voters, though awareness has increased slightly from our previous poll. Republican candidate John Reid has a -1 favorability rating (15% favorable to 16% unfavorable), though a large percentage (69%) say they do not know enough about him to have an opinion. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi has a +3 favorability rating (19%
favorable to 16% unfavorable); 65% say no opinion/don’t know.” (Again, horrible job by the media, which has barely covered the LG candidates, and to the extent they’ve covered John Reid, they have barely mentioned his loooong history on MAGA/far-right radio saying all kinds of things that would be strongly unpopular among most Virginia voters. But they aren’t aware, apparently. Also, it’s just crazy that 65%+ of voters don’t know enough about either candidate to have an opinion, even as we’re several weeks into early voting…) - “Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares has a +7 favorability rating (31% favorable to 24% unfavorable) with 46% saying no opinion/don’t know. Democratic candidate Jay Jones has a +2 favorability rating (28% favorable to 26% unfavorable); 45% indicate no opinion/don’t know.” (Again, it’s mind boggling that so many voters say they don’t know enough to even have an opinion about the incumbent Attorney General or his Democratic challenger. A lot of it is the media does a HORRIBLE job on this; although ultimately, it’s up to citizens to be informed/engaged…)
- “Spanberger’s support is currently driven by Democratic voters (98%), Independents (49% to 37%), Black voters (80% to 12%), women (60% to 34%), voters aged 18-44 (50% to 41%), and voters with college degrees (61% to 33%). Earle-Sears’ support within her own party sits at 95% and she holds a lead among white voters (52% to 43%), male voters (51% to 42%), and voters without college degrees (50% to 44%).” (Yeah, this is pretty much as expected. Spanberger’s 12-point lead among Independents jumps out…)
- “Hashmi has an advantage among Independents (+12), women (+25), Black voters (+60), and voters with a college degree (+27). Reid’s support comes primarily from fellow Republicans at 91%, white voters (+8), male voters (+11), and voters without college degrees (+9). (Ditto. Hashmi’s 12-point lead among Independents, the same as Spanberger’s, is notable.)
- “Jones’ lead is bolstered by support from Democrats (96%), Independents (45% to 40%), women voters (58% to 34%), Black voters (77% to 13%), younger voters (47% to 44%), and voters with college degrees (58% to 33%). Miyares has support among Republicans (94%), Male voters (52% to 39%), white voters (52% to 41%), and voters without college degrees (52% to 41%).” (Jones has a much smaller lead – just 5 points – among Independents compared to Spanberger and Hashmi, who both lead by 12 points among independents – which presumably accounts for a chunk of the reason for Jones’ smaller lead than Spanberger and Hashmi.)
- “We asked Virginia likely voters which party’s candidate they are more likely to vote for in their House of Delegates district. The Democratic Party has a 7-point advantage over the Republican Party (51% to 44%) on this generic ballot question.” (It was 51% -43% last month, so a one-point increase for Republicans).
