The final Wason Center poll of the 2025 Virginia election is now available. See below for the results/takeaways.
- “Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 7 points, 50% to 43% among Virginia likely voters; 6% remain undecided or don’t know.”
- “In the Lieutenant Governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by 2 points among Virginia likely voters, 47% to 45%; 7% say they are undecided or don’t know and 1% say they will vote for someone else.”
- “In the race for Attorney General, Incumbent Republican Jason Miyares now holds a 1-point lead over Democrat Jay Jones among Virginia likely voters, 46% to 45%; 8% say they are undecided or don’t know while 1% say they will vote for someone else.”
- “In the Generic Ballot test for House of Delegates, the Democratic Party’s candidate leads the Republican Party’s candidate by 8 points, 51% to 43%.”
- “Top-of-mind issues for Virginia likely voters include threats to democracy (18%), inflation (18%), healthcare (11%), and immigration (9%).”
- “75% of Virginia likely voters have heard some (20%) or a lot (55%) about news reports regarding text messages sent by attorney general candidate Jay Jones in 2022. Among those that have heard at least a little about these text messages, 47% say that it is either very (32%) or somewhat likely (15%) to impact their vote choice for attorney general.”
So overall, not a horrible poll for Democrats, but not awesome either. I mean, Ghazala Hashmi only up by 2 points over someone as extreme as John Reid is really messed up. And Abigail Spanberger up only 7 points over such a bad candidate as Winsome Earle-Sears is also nothing to jump up and down about. As for the AG race, at this point, a 1-point Jason Miyares lead (basically a tossup) isn’t too bad, given the frenzy over Jay Jones’ bizarre texts with Carrie Coyner. Finally, I’d note that former VA Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R/Trump voter)’s quote today in the NY Times about how, supposedly, nobody cares about Jones’ texts doesn’t seem true, at least according to this poll, which finds that 75% of likely voters have heard about this story, and of those, nearly half say it’s either very or somewhat likely to impact their vote choice for AG (although not sure if it impacts their choice for governor at all, and maybe that’s what Bolling was referring to?).
P.S. According to FiftyPlusOne, the polling average prior to this poll had Spanberger +10 (52.2%-42.2%) over Earle-Sears. Also, according to L2 Data’s model, early voting so far in Virginia breaks down as Democratic 56.6% / Republican 38.2% / Non-Partisan 5.1%. So…either the Wason Center poll is somewhat of a Republican-friendly “outlier,” while the polling average and early voting numbers are more reflective of the actual electorate, or Wason is getting at something that the polling average and early voting isn’t. We’ll see in 8 days…
