11 of Winsome Earle-Sears’, John Reid’s and Jason Miyares’ Biggest FAILS of the 2025 Virginia Election

As the saying goes in politics, when you win you’re a genius (or at least a lot of people THINK you’re a genius, lol), when you lose you’re an idiot (ditto). Even if you won or lost because of broader forces at work, not so much what your campaign did or didn’t do. Still, I think in looking back at the 2025 Virginia statewide campaigns, we can identify some major “FAILS” by the Winsome Earle-Sears, John Reid and Jason Miyares campaigns. Here are eleven that jump out at me (in no particularly order); feel free to suggest others in the comments section!

1. Winsome Earle-Sears’ over-the-top, bizarre debate performance on October 9: This was the only scheduled debate between Winsome Earle-Sears – who was trailing at the time by about 10 points – and frontrunner Abigail Spanberger, so I get that Earle-Sears felt pressure to have a “moment,” be aggressive and possibly cause Spanberger to make an “unforced error” (like Terry McAuliffe did in 2021 with his botched remarks about whether parents should play a role in their kids’ education). But c’mon, seriously? Did the Earle-Sears folks seriously think that constantly talking over Spanberger, being incredibly unprofessional and rude, bringing up the Jay Jones texts over and over and over again, etc. was going to get her anywhere? I mean, if they DID think that, in the end it didn’t work, as Spanberger’s lead held constant or even grew post-debate, leading up to Spanberger’s final victory margin of 15+ points.  (By the way, if you want to see what a Virginia Republican consultant had to say about Earle-Sears’ debate performance, basically that “it was not something that was appealing to anybody,” click here.)
2. Earle-Sears’ weird, offputting “I AM SPEAKING” clip from the 2024 Buena Vista Labor Day celebration. I mean, major kudos to the Spanberger folks for honing in on this bizarre clip and using it HEAVILY in paid media to define Earle-Sears and to center other things around. Very clever. As for Earle-Sears, what the heck did she think she was doing at that event? Just for a small sampling of what Earle-Sears had to say at that event – but you definitely need to watch the video to get the best sense of how unhinged it was – here you go: “Donald Trump he didn’t start no wars. I am speaking! I am speaking! I am speaking! USA USA USA USA! USA USA USA! We’re going to win in November. We’re going to win in November! We have to win! We got to keep the White House! We’re going to win! God bless you! God bless you! And God bless America!” LOL, wuuuuut? Anyway, to put it mildly, the Spanberger folks were able to use this to their advantage…and for good reason, because even if you’re not into politics at all, most people have got to find Earle-Sears language and demeanor at that event just…weird, and that’s an understatement.
3. Republicans’ attacks on a random Democratic volunteer holding a poorly worded (at best) and/or obnoxious/offensive sign on August 21. This one got huge attention, driven by OUTRAGE (sincere or not) by Republicans at a sign carried by a random activist, not working for the Spanberger campaign or the Democratic Party of Virginia, which she claimed was “satire mean to provoke conversation about the absurdity of prejudice” (against trans people OR Black people, although the sign was very poorly worded for sure). The thing is, are we now going to hold candidates responsible for literally anything/everything one of their (random) supporters says or does? If so, it’s pretty much endless if we want to get into the nasty, bigoted, hateful crap spewed by right wingers on Twitter or whatever. In this case, of course, Abigail Spanberger immediately, and correctly, condemned the moronic sign as “racist, abhorrent and unacceptable,” adding that “no matter the intended purpose or tone and no matter how much one might find someone else’s beliefs objectionable, to threaten a return of Jim Crow and segregation to a Black woman is unacceptable.” Bingo. Yet the Earle-Sears campaign, Virginia Republicans, etc. continued to pound away on this for days if not weeks. And the result? Spanberger’s lead in the polls went from about 8.7 points pre-“signgate” to just over 9 points a couple weeks later. In short, this entire incident had essentially zero impact on the campaign, certainly not in a way that helped Earle-Sears or her ticketmates.
4. Republicans attempts to use the offensive Jay Jones text messages to bring down Abigail Spanberger.  The texts scandal story hit on October 3 in the conservative National Review, and it caused a huge uproar for sure (and to be fair, the texts were really nasty/disgusting). But it arguably had no impact at all on Spanberger’s lead over Earle-Sears (at the time, it was around 10 points; Spanberger won by 15+ points). As for Jay Jones himself, it most definitely impacted the AG race polling, with Jones leading by about 6 points just before the scandal broke, falling to a dead heat or even trailing Jason Miyares by a few points through the end of the campaign (note: the State Navigate poll on 10/22 had Jones up 5 points). But in the end, Jones won the election by  nearly 7 points, similar to his polling lead pre-texts-scandal. So in the end, not only did the texting scandal not defeat Jones, the attempts to tie that scandal to Abigail Spanberger absolutely didn’t appear to work – at all.
5. The Earle-Sears’ campaign obessive focus on bashing trans kids (and adults, aka “they/them” messaging) for where they went to the bathroom (as Speaker Don Scott called it, the “pee-and-poop caucus” LOL), which sports teams they played on, etc. – instead of what voters actually cared about, which was jobs, the economy, DOGE, etc. This was pretty much nonstop in Earle-Sears’ paid media content AND on her social media feeds, in her media appearances, etc. And the result? Well, again, she ended up losing by 15+ points, so obviously the constant anti-trans demagoguery and bigotry didn’t appear to be effective politically, whether against Spanberger or for the Republican ticket overall. Also, note that polling found only a VERY small percentage of voters said “transgender policy” was a top issue for them. So in the end, the Earle-Sears campaign spent a TON of money (and time, energy, etc.) on this issue, and it appears to have accomplished absolutely nothing (other than demonizing trans kids, who aren’t hurting anyone, etc.).
6.  John Reid’s constant bashing of Ghazala Hashmi – for not debating him, for supposedly being just like Zohran Mamdani (aka, supposedly far left, which isn’t true; and Muslim – Reid trying to stoke/benefit from Islamophobia). Reid didn’t have the money needed to go on TV in a big way, so he mostly focused on getting around the state, on earned media, and on his social media feed. As for his messaging, it was heavily negative, focused on the supposed horrors of elected “far-left”/”radical”/”socialist”/etc. Ghazala Hashmi; how Hashmi was supposedly JUST LIKE MAMDANI (far-left plus Muslim); how Hashmi wouldn’t debate him, meaning she (supposedly) must have a lot to hide; etc. Of course, the media refused to call any of this out, because that’s how they operate, and to the contrary heavily whitewashed, sanewashed, etc. Reid as a generic “radio host,” “conservative,” etc. But in the end, did any of this actually work for Reid? No sign of it, based on the results, with Reid losing to Hashmi by over 11.5 points…just a few points lower than Spanberger’s 15+-plus-point margin of victory over Earle-Sears.
7.  Jason Miyares’ barrage of anti-Jay-Jones ads. Mixed results on this item, actually, as Miyares only lost by 6.7 points, meaning that Jones “underperformed” Spanberger by nearly 9 points. Of course, we don’t know if Jones would have underperformed Spanberger regardless, whether because he was outpsent by Miyares, because Miyares was the incumbent, or whatever, but in the end, even if the Miyares campaign’s barrage of anti-Jones paid advertising helped cut the Jones margin of victory over Miyares, it only got Miyares within 6.7 points, so…sure, “mixed” results but in the end, Miyares still lost pretty badly regardless.
8.  Earle-Sears getting the worst of both worlds with Trump. On the one hand, Trump never gave Earle-Sears his full-throated endorsement, basically gave her the cold shoulder despite her pleading for his endorsement/support. So in the end, to the extent many Virginia voters saw this election as a referendum on Trump (whether for him or against him), Earle-Sears arguably got the worst of all worlds here — all the negatives among the majority of voters who disapproved of Trump, but none of the positives of boosting turnout by the MAGA “base” from being seen as tight with Trump. Also, how weak and pitiful does it look to be pleading with Trump to endorse you, just weeks before the election, especially while former President Barack Obama came to campaign for Abigail Spanberger in front of thousands?
9.  On a related note, Earle-Sears refused to ever criticize Trump on ANYTHING, even as his policies – also DOGE, the government shutdown, etc. – decimated Virginians and were “top of mind” for many/most voters. So I get why Earle-Sears was kind of caught between a rock and a hard place on this one, because if she broke with Trump in any way, she risked dampening MAGA “base” turnout and also causing Trump to come down on her like a ton of bricks. But still…c’mon, you want to be governor of Virginia but you’re not even willing to stand up for Virginia and Virginians? Not only is that the wrong thing to do morally/ethically, it’s also not going to help you politically in the end. And, indeed, it didn’t help Earle-Sears, who lost in one of the biggest landslides in decades, in large part because she never broke with Trump in any way/shape/form, even as the majority of Virginia voters were furious at Trump.
10.  Earle-Sears’ signs that read, “LET’S KEEP A GOOD THING GOING!” I mean…sure, you can go with messaging like that if the majority of voters actually believe things are going well and want to keep them going in the same direction. But was that the case? Certainly not in terms of polling on how people viewed the direction of the country. As for how they viewed the direction of Virginia specifically, it’s pretty hard to separate that out from the negative views on the country’s direction overall, especially given the fact that Virginia’s on the front lines in many ways in terms of “federal fallout” (to use Sam Shirazi’s accurate/astute expression). So maybe the Earle-Sears campaign was trying to imitate Trump’s signage in the 2024 presidential election, but as the Republican representative on the “After Virginia Votes” panel noted, “Trump’s the only person that can do that.” And Earle-Sears definitely wasn’t Trump, or even endorsed by Trump, so…nah.
11.  Earle-Sears’ lack of success in terms of her bus tour, “mainstream media” strategy, lack of policy, etc. As for the bus tour, it basically became a source of mockery by the Spanberger campaign, as the crowds were very small, sometimes Earle-Sears simply didn’t show up (for no apparent reason), and at one point her bus even caught on fire (the bus was empty; nobody was injured; more of a meme/metaphor than anything else). As for her “mainstream media” strategy, there didn’t really appear to be one, leading to some serious carping by the media (see here, for instance). Now, nobody really cares if the “mainstream media” isn’t happy with their level of access to a candidate, but was that lack of access (let alone the lack of almost any policy specifics, plans, etc.) a net *positive* for Earle-Sears? Hard to see how it was, given the results. Of course, if you don’t really have much if anything to offer in terms of serious policy solutions, ways to actually address voters’ main concerns, examples of how you accomplished things during your four years in office, etc., then…yeah, maybe it DID make sense to avoid the media? LOL  Of course, if you don’t have any of those things to offer voters, what on earth are you doing running for governor in the first place???

UPDATE: Suggestion from a reader for a 12th item on this list.  “Reid aligning himself with the so-called Fairfax whistleblower who turned out to have faked evidence that a school official facilitated an abortion and forged the statement, which, even aside from the bogus nature of the claim, reminded pro-choice VA voters than he was an anti-choice nutjob who thinks abortion is like slavery.”