12 Major Reasons Why Abigail Spanberger (and VA Democrats) Won Huge on Tuesday

So why did Abigail Spanberger defeat Winsome Earle-Sears by nearly 15 points this past Tuesday? A bunch of reasons, of course, although I’ve definitely  Let’s start by looking at the exit poll data:

According to NBC News’ exit polling:

• 97% of those who had voted for Kamala Harris last November voted for Spanberger this time around.
• 93% of those who had voted for Donald Trump last November voted for Earle-Sears this time around.
• “Spanberger also won over groups that are typically less locked-in. Moderates, independent voters and those who have unfavorable views of both major parties all broke for Spanberger over Earle-Sears. Among those who did not vote in 2024, Spanberger beat Earle-Sears by nearly double digits.” (57% went for Spanberger and 43% for Earle-Sears)
• With regard to the Earle-Sears’ campaign’s slogan, “Let’s Keep a Good Thing Going,” the problem is that only 35% of Virginia voters were satisfied or enthusiastic about the direction of the country, with 63% “angry/dissatisfied.”
• Another important factor: “In Virginia, where the government shutdown and federal government cuts affected many families this year, 6 in 10 said federal government cuts this year affected their families’ finances a lot (20%) or a little (39%).”

According to CBS News exit polling:

• 54% of Virginia voters said Trump was a factor in their vote while 45% said Trump wasn’t a factor. Of course, some voters might have come out to SUPPORT Trump, with others OPPOSING Trump.
• “Economic issues also loomed large in the Democratic wins in the gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia… In Virginia, those ‘economy’ voters voted for Abigail Spanberger over Winsome Earle-Sears by more than 20 points.”
• “Women voted in big numbers for the women Democratic candidates in Virginia and New Jersey. Sherrill and Spanberger’s margins with women were far larger than Kamala Harris’ were nationally in 2024.”
• “Independents were key, too. They swung toward Spanberger in Virginia, after Glenn Youngkin won them in 2021.”

According to CNN’s exit polling:

• “In Virginia, Spanberger’s victory in the governor’s race was powered in significant part by unhappiness with the state of the nation. A majority of voters said they disapproved of Trump — and roughly 9 in 10 of those voters supported Spanberger over her rival, Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.”
• “While about half of voters said that societal support for transgender rights has gone too far, more than one-fifth in that group still support Spanberger over Earle-Sears, who made attacks on transgender rights a cornerstone of her campaign.”
• “By contrast, just over half of voters also say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far — and Spanberger won more than 9 in 10 of them.”
• “Spanberger won among voters who identify as political independents — a group that makes up roughly a third of this year’s electorate — and among female voters, voters with college degrees and the majority of voters in the state who say abortion should be legal in most or all cases.”
• “She also notched a significant advantage among voters from households where someone worked this year as a federal employee or was employed as a federal contractor.”
• 47% said Trump wasn’t a factor in their vote, but of the remainder, 37% said one reason for their vote was to oppose Trump, compared to just 15% who said it was to support Trump. And the CNN exit poll had Trump’s approval rating in Virginia at just 41%-56%.

According to ABC News’ exit polling, the keys to Spanberger’s big win included:

• The economy: “Nearly half of Virginia voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the commonwealth, and they supported Spanberger by more than 20 percentage points, according to ABC News exit polling.”
• Government workers: “Roughly 6 in 10 said that federal government cuts affected their family’s finances; and by a more than 2-1 margin, they supported Spanberger over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears.”
• Immigration: “Over half of Virginia voters said that the President Donald Trump’s administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have “gone too far,” and over 9 in 10 of them voted for Spanberger.”
• Trump: “Roughly half of Virginia voters strongly disapproved of Trump and almost all of them supported Spanberger.”
• Race: “Exit polls found that roughly 9 in 10 Black voters supported Spanberger, along with about two-thirds of Hispanic/Latino voters and about 8 in 10 Asian voters. A slim majority of white voters supported Earle-Sears.”
• Again, with regard to the Earle-Sears’ campaign’s tone-deaf slogan, “Let’s Keep a Good Thing Going,” the problem for Earle-Sears was that “about two-thirds of Virginia voters said they are either dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the country today,” and they went overwhelmingly for Spanberger.

So with all that in mind, see below for my views on why Spanberger won big (15 points; the largest in modern Virginia history for a Democrat, with only Bob McDonnell’s 17-point win in 2009 surpassing it…for decades) correspond with a lot of what the exit polls found. I’d rank a dozen of the reasons, in roughly descending order, as follows.

1. First and foremost, since 1977, Virginia almost always has gone opposite of the party in the White House. Thus, in 2009, one year after Barack Obama won in a landslide, including winning Virginia by 6 points, Republican Bob McDonnell won the governor’s race by a massive 17-point margin. Is that because McDonnell ran such a brilliant campaign, and/or Creigh Deeds ran a horrible campaign? I mean, McDonnell did run a solid campaign – albeit a dishonest one, falsely claiming that he was some sort of suburban moderate who was “Bob’s for Jobs,” not the guy who was close with Pat Robertson and who was so far right he earned the nickname “Taliban Bob.” But I mean, c’mon, that was a 23-point swing from Obama the year before, and there’s no way in hell that a strong campaign could have accounted for all (or even most) of that. Instead, it was the structural factor of Virginia going opposite the party in the White House. Also, recall that in 2009, the economy was in the “Great Recession,” the “Tea Party” was raging, etc. So basically, ANY Republican on the ballot for governor that year would have won, the only question is the margin really.  Also note that in 2017, Ralph Northam won by 9 points the year after Trump won the White House. And in 2021, Glenn Youngkin won by 2 points the year after Joe Biden won the White House – including Virginia by 10 points. Sensing a pattern here?
2. Trump was very unpopular in Virginia. At somewhere around 41% approval and 56% disapproval, Trump was simply not going to be a net asset to Virginia Republicans this year. Just as George W. Bush wasn’t a net asset to the Jerry Kilgore campaign in 2005, or the other examples mentioned above. So for Virginia Republicans, the conundrum was that to fire up their voters, they needed Trump to be enthusiastically and energetically involved in helping their ticket, but the problem is, that would have likely angered a lot more voters who disapprove of Trump. So, basically, Republicans had no great options there.
3. DOGE, consumer sentiment, inflation, the economy, the government shutdown, etc.: To sum it up, as Sam Shirazi calls it, “Federal Fallout” was NOT favorable to Virginia Republicans this year, whether we’re talking about the DOGE cuts, the constant abuse of the federal workforce by the Trump administration, consumer sentiment plummeting, tariffs/inflation/the cost of living, the lengthy government shutdown, etc. That’s just a horrible environment to be running in if you’re the party in power, which Republicans most definitely are, controlling all three branches of the federal government.
4. Virginia has been trending “blue” for years. The last time Virginia went for the Republican presidential nominee was in 2004; since then, it’s gone Democratic in 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020 and 2024. Also, of course, both our US Senators are Democratic, while the US House delegation is 6-5 Democratic. And our State Senate is 21-19 Democratic, while the House of Delegates is 51-49 Democratic, soon to be 64-36 Democratic. At the local level, Northern Virginia is overwhelmingly blue at this point, as is the Richmond area…and Hampton Roads to a large extent. Which means that the only way Republicans can win statewide is to rack up HUGE margins in rural/red areas, while counting on anemic turnout in the “urban/suburban crescent” (NoVA-Richmond area-Hampton Roads). That’s just a really tall order, and it’s not getting any easier for Republicans as time goes by…
5. Trump was clearly not a fan of Earle-Sears, regardless. Recall that in 2022, following the midterm elections, Earle-Sears had laid into Trump, arguing that Trump was “sanctimonious” and “bailed on us,” implying that he was racist for calling Mitch McConnell’s wife “Coco Chow Chow or something,” saying she didn’t “join the Trump Party, I joined the Republican Party,” etc. Sears even called for Trump to “leave the political stage.”  In response, Trump said he “never felt good about Winsome Sears,” that he “always thought she was a phony,” etc. Also chiming in at that time was VA State Senator Amanda Chase (R), a huge Trump fanatic, who ripped Earle-Sears for her “betrayal of Donald Trump,” going “from a hero to a zero,” etc. And a Trump spokesperson quoted by the Washington Post stated that “Her comments are a slap to the face to all of the grassroots Republicans that worked so hard to get her elected. They won’t forget this and there will be a reckoning. There always is in politics.” So, three years later, it looks like that reckoning has come – in part because of Trump being unpopular, in part because Trump voters weren’t excited about Earle-Sears, etc?
6. Earle-Sears had no serious economic message, while Spanberger talked a lot about the economy. As Spanberger’s campaign argues, she focused “like a laser” (or whatever the preferred cliche is) on Trump/DOGE job cuts, inflation, and other “kitchen-table” concerns, while Earle-Sears barely talked about any of that, instead mostly ranting about trans kids in locker rooms and on sports teams (which very few Virginians ranked as a top issue); “criminal illegal immigrants” (again, if anything, the exit polling found that “just over half of voters also say that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have gone too far — and Spanberger won more than 9 in 10 of them”); attempting (mostly without much/any success) to tie Spanberger to Jay Jones’ offensive text messages; attempting, laughably, to tie Spanberger to Nancy Pelosi in some sort of relevant (and bad) way; etc.
7. Earle-Sears was outspent heavily. According to VPAP, Spanberger outraised Earle-Sears by $25 million (!) — $62 million to $37 million – through the 12th day before the election. Going back to 2001, the only other elections with such big gaps were in 2001, when Mark Warner outspent Mark Earley by $15 million, and in 2013, when Terry McAuliffe outspent Ken Cuccinelli by $21 million. Note that both Warner and McAuliffe won, including McAuliffe bucking the historic trend (since 1977) of Virginia going opposite the party in the White House. Now, of course, money isn’t everything, but if you can’t communicate with voters, it does tend to put you at a disadvantage. Of course, as mentioned above, Earle-Sears didn’t have a particularly coherent or effective message, so even when she got more money in the closing days of the campaign, it’s doubtful whether it helped her; hell, maybe it hurt her the more voters saw her noxious, nasty, weird messaging???
8. Making matters worse for Earle-Sears, Republicans in general were heavily outspent in Virginia this election cycle. According to VPAP, in addition to the aforementioned cash advantage Spanberger had over Earle-Sears, Virginia House Democrats also FAR outraised Virginia House Republican candidates; I mean, we’re talking $66 million to $26 million – a massive $40 million (!) advantage for Virginia House Democrats. Add in Ghazala Hashmi’s big cash advantage over John Reid, and Republicans were pretty much swamped in terms of money, with the exception of Jason Miyares outraising Jay Jones…and that was the closest race, with Jones “underperforming” Spanberger by 9 points. Meanwhile, in the House of Delegates, Democrat picked up a whopping 13 seats – and that presumably had a positive, synergistic effect on the governor’s race.
9. Spanberger was a strong candidate with a well-run campaign. How much do campaigns matter? I mean, Mikie Sherrill did about the same in New Jersey as Spanberger did in Virginia, so one could argue that it’s the political environment a lot more than the campaigns. But to the extent campaigns matter, Spanberger’s was competent, solid, disciplined, difficult if not impossible to push off message, etc. It was also, as noted above, much better funded than the Earle-Sears campaign. And it generally focused on the right messaging, including economics, but also defining Earle-Sears as…well, kinda crazy, really, with the now-infamous “I AM SPEAKING!” clip running at the start of a LOT of Spanberger’s advertising. Did that messaging break thorugh? It sure seems like it, if nothing else from anecdotal evidence of people joking about it, talking about it, etc.
10. Earle-Sears, in contrast, wasn’t a strong candidate. In addition to being heavily outspent, as noted above, Earle-Sears simply wasn’t very popular. For instance, in the WaPo/Schar poll in late October, Earle-Sears had a 37% favorable rating vs. a 44% unfavorable rating (minus 7 points), while Spanberger was at 51% favorable vs. 36% unfavorable (+15 points). Not great for Earle-Sears. And it didn’t seem to get any better as Earle-Sears’ advertising ramped up, with her net favorable ratings in that WaPo/Schar poll going from minus 4 (38%-42%) in late September to minus 7 (37%-44%) in late October. Besides that, I’d point out that Earle-Sears mostly stuck to the right-wing media bubble, and when she DID venture out to the more “mainstream” media, it didn’t go well (e.g., see this example). Earle-Sears also made some serious unforced errors, like when she mixed up the Hokies and Wahoos. Also, I’d argue that her debate performance, in which she aggressively confronted Spanberger, talked over her constantly – and focused heavily on trans kids in locker rooms/on sports teams, the Jones text messages (which Earle-Sears never really was able to hurt Spanberger with), etc. – did nothing to help her with swing voters, and probably was offputting to many moderate voters.
11. Youngkin wasn’t particularly popular. After winning the governorship in November 2021 by just two points, not impressive when an increasingly unpopular Democrat was in the White House, Youngkin’s approval rating wasn’t great (e.g., according to the November 1 State Navigate poll, which basically NAILED the results for governor, LG and AG, Youngkin’s approval is “almost dead even…underwater by less than a tenth of a percentage point.” That would put Youngkin at the worst net approval rating of any modern Virginia governor at this point in his term. Oh, and in another poll (YouGov) which nailed the governor’s race, Youngkin’s approval rating was just 47%-47%; again, no coattails for his desired successor. In stark contrast, think about the fact that when then-LG Tim Kaine was running for governor in 2005, then-Gov. Mark Warner had astronomical approval ratings, above 70% and even close to 80% in some polls. So while Youngkin might not have been a major drag on Earle-Sears, he certainly didn’t have the type of popularity that would boost him.
12. Youngkin had few major, positive accomplishments to point to, nor did Earle-Sears. I mean, think about it; can you name some major, positive accomplishments by Youngkin or Earle-Sears? Yes, Youngkin brought some business to Virginia (that had nothing to do with the LG), but Virginia also got nailed by DOGE, etc, saw its business ranking slump, etc. Other than that, seriously, was there anything substantive that Youngkin and Earle-Sears could point to, that they actually had something to do with and that would resonate with voters? Uhhhh…hmmmm…thoughts? LOL

So those are a dozen reasons why, I’d argue, Spanberger won – and won as big as she did. What do you think? Any other big factors that you’d point to?