Following the November 4th elections, Virginia Democrats will once again have a governing “trifecta” (governorship, House of Delegates, State Senate) starting in January, for the first time since January 2020-January 2022. If you recall, during the last two-year “trifecta” period, Democrats passed hundreds of pieces of progressive legislation (on voting rights/democracy, pro-clean-energy, criminal justice reform, reproductive freedom, labor/workers, gun violence prevention, etc. etc.) legislation that were signed into law by Gov. Ralph Northam. Over the past four years, in contrast, Glenn Youngkin vetoed pretty much anything even remotely pro-environment, pro-clean-energy or progressive in any way.
So now that Democrats will have a “trifecta’ once agin, what might that mean in terms of the prospects for progressive, pro-environment/pro-clean-energy legislation? Personally, i’m cautiously optimistic, although of course Virginia will be facing potentially major economic headwinds thanks to Trump’s tariffs, (illegal) firings of federal workers, etc., so that could require Democrats to mostly be on defense for the next few years in terms of major new initiatives that require money (other than filling potentially large gaps caused by reductions in federal support for healthcare and other things, like Metro). Also, keep in mind that while Democrats will have a “trifecta,” their margin in the State Senate will only be 21-19, meaning that pretty much all it will take to kill a piece of legislation – in any area – will be if two Democratic Senators don’t support it (or if, after Ghazala Hashmi resigns to become LG and Democrats only have a 20-19 Senate majority for a while, just ONE Democratic Senator doesn’t support it). Also, we’ll see how Abigail Spanberger – who has positioned herself since 2018 as a “moderate”/”centrist” – will govern.
With that, see below for some thoughts by former VA Lt. Governor Bill Bolling, a Republican and Trump supporter, with my comments (in bold/green/italics/parentheses)…
WHAT WILL DEMOCRATIC CONTROL MEAN FOR VIRGINIA?
A lot of people have been asking this question lately:
“What will public policy in Virginia look like now that we have a Democratic Governor and Democrats control both houses of the General Assembly?” (Again, keep in mind that Democrats only will have a 21-19 majority in the State Senate, and possibly even only 20-19 for a while…or even 19-19 if any Democratic Senator goes into the Spanberger administration? Also note that VA Speaker Don Scott has stated: “The word of the day now is restraint. We can’t overreach. We have to be restrained. We have to be wise with the gift that the voters have given us to govern. We have to be wise in how we move forward, so it’s gonna be important for us to have a coalition that’s restrained, that’s smart, that’s disciplined and focused on what voters want us to do. They told us what they want. All we have to do is listen. They’re feeling the pain in the pocketbook. We got to stay focused on kitchen table issues, but they also are afraid that our democracy is eroding and being attacked, and they want us to stand up, and that’s what we’re gonna do…”)
First, we should remember that this is not the first time in recent history that we experienced total Democratic control of state government. The same thing happened in 2020-2022, during the final two years of the Northam administration.
Anyone who looks back over that two-year period would have to objectively conclude that it resulted in the passage and implementation of some of the most liberal policies in Virginia history. (Agreed, although it’s important to point out that “most liberal policies in Virginia history” has to be put in perspective, as for most of Virginia history, the government was dominated either by conservative/Byrd machine “Democrats,” or by Republicans in the House of Delegates and/or State Senate and/or Governor’s mansion, etc. Which means that, arguably, 2020-2022 was the first time in Virginia history with a real Democratic “trifecta”…)
History is a good predictor of the future, so we will no doubt see the aggressive pursuit of the same type of liberal agenda over the next two years, when Democrats will have total control of Virginia’s state government. (We’ll see; in 2020-2022, there was a ton of “low-hanging fruit” and pent-up need for legislation; this time around, there still is a need for good legislation, of course, but arguably not as much “low-hanging fruit” as last time around, given how much Democrats accomplished then.)
I would offer the following predictions on how state policy will change over the next two years. Please note that I am not weighing in on whether these are good ideas or bad ideas, just predicting that this is what you should look for when Democrats take charge.
TAXES
Taxes will go up so Democrats can increase the amount of money they have to spend on various government programs. I would not be surprised to see an increase in the personal income tax rate, especially for higher earners; the corporate income tax rate, and the state sales tax. (Virginia’s long overdue for tax reform, preferably to make the tax code a lot more progressive than it is now. How about bringing back the estate tax, for instance? But will major tax reform happen? Don’t hold your breath.)
Democrats may also look for ways to give additional taxing powers to local governments in Virginia.
This may not all happen at once, but it will happen over the next four years if Democrats remain in charge.
SPENDING
Spending will continue to increase, but it will increase at a faster rate than it has increased in the past. (Frankly, neither party has done a very good job controlling state spending.) This is because Democrats will want to invest a lot of additional money in higher education, K-12 education and a plethora of social programs, chief among them Medicaid and mental health. These additional investments will require a lot of new state spending. (Actually, much of the spending increases will probably relate to plugging holes in the budget – on health care, Metro, etc. – caused by horrible policies coming out of the Republican-controlled “trifecta” in Washington, DC. Beyond that…maybe not?)
RAINY DAY FUND
With Virginia’s economy slowing down, and the possibility of a national recession still looming over us, revenues will likely be more difficult to come by in the next four years than they have been in the past four years. However, this won’t slow down the Democrats desire to spend more money on their favorite government programs. They will likely take this money from Virginia’s rainy-day fund, which currently has a balance of about $5B.
This sounds like a lot of money, but remember, this is one time money. Once you spend it, it is gone. That’s why you should never use rainy day funds to try and fund ongoing government programs, but Tim Kaine did it during his administration, and you can count on Democrats to do the same if times get tight.
The first such raid on the rainy day fund could be required to continue funding Medicaid programs that were scaled back under President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill. Estimates are that 350,000 Virginians could lose Medicaid coverage because of changes made in the BBB. If Virginia continues to fund Medicaid at the same rate it did prior to the passage of the BBB, it could require hundreds of millions of dollars of additional state spending to provide this coverage. (Right, the “Rainy Day Fund” could be used to counterbalance the Medicaid coverage cuts…but not indefinitely; as Bolling correctly points out, “this is one-time money,” and “Once you spend it, it is gone.”)
RIGHT TO WORK AND COLLECTIVE BARGAINING
Virginia’s right to work law, which has been in place since 1947, is definitely at risk. Many Democrats in the General Assembly, and their union backers, would like to repeal this law altogether. While they may not do that all at once, you can count on efforts to significantly weaken the right to work law. (Not sure the votes are there in the State Senate for repeal of “right-to-work,” plus Abigail Spanberger said she wouldn’t support full repeal. So…maybe some reforms but not actual repeal?)
When Democrats last controlled the Governor’s office and both houses of the General Assembly, they gave local governments in Virginia the ability to enact collective bargaining agreements with their employees. Most Democratically controlled localities have done so. It is almost guaranteed that collective bargaining will be extended to state employees over the next few years. (Yeah, that seems likely.)
These changes could significantly impact Virginia’s long standing reputation as one of the most business friendly states in America. (That’s silly…fear mongering more than anything; can anyone point to evidence that states without these laws have bad business climates, let alone for that specific reason?)
CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS
You can count on Democrats to try and make substantive changes to Virginia’s state Constitution once they regain power. (Yes, this is 100% guaranteed – and for good reason!)
We already know of their desire to amend the Constitution to give them the power to enact a mid-decade redistricting process in Virginia, subverting the will of the voters who approved a bipartisan redistricting process in 2020. (It wouldn’t be “subverting the will of the voters” if the amendment is placed in front of voters next spring and they voluntarily vote for it. Meanwhile, maybe Republicans should focus on why this entire cycle started in the first place, with Trump et al trying to rig the midterm elections by gerrymandering Dems out of existence in “red” states like Texas.)
However, several other constitutional amendments will be coming down the pike in the not-too-distant future, including:
* Repeal of the ban on same sex marriage that voters approved in 2006. (That should pass overwhelmingly.)
* Providing for the automatic restoration of civil rights and voting rights for convicted felons once their sentence has been completed. (Also should pass handily.)
* Creating constitutional protection for the right to have an abortion (Ditto.)
MARIJUANA
Democrats will push to further legalize the possession and use of marijuana and create a commercial marijuana market in Virginia. The General Assembly has previously approved such legislation, but it was vetoed by Governor Glenn Youngkin. (Yes, very likely – and needed.)
EDUCATION “REFORM”
We can expect efforts to water down, the Standards of Learning in Virginia’s public schools. Certainly, the idea of accountability testing will be significantly changed.
In addition, we can expect a repeal of the various protections Governor Youngkin put in place by Executive Order regarding LGBTQ initiatives in the public school system. (Wuuuut? Bolling thinks that anti-LGBTQ discrimination is actually “protections?” OK…)
IMMIGRATION
Governor-elect Spanberger has already indicated that she will repeal Governor Youngkin’s Executive Order requiring local law enforcement agencies in Virginia to cooperate with federal immigration officials in carrying out their duties to find, arrest and deport those persons who are in Virginia illegally. This will lead to the criticism that many Virginia localities will become “sanctuary cites” for illegal immigrants, setting up almost certain clashes with the Trump administration. (Bolling is strongly anti-“illegal immigration” – I strongly disagree with him on this issue – but yes, I agree that this could be an area of “clashes with the Trump administration” – given their heavy-handed tactics, focus NOT on actual violent criminals – or criminals at all – but on law-abiding, hard-working immigrants who are just trying to make a better life for themselves and their families…)
These are just some of the significant policy changes I will be watching for over the next four years, especially the next two years, leading up to the next General Assembly elections in 2027.
Remember, over the past four years Governor Youngkin has vetoed more than 400 bills that were passed by the Democratic legislature. These were bills that Governor Youngkin felt were bad for Virginia. You can expect almost every one of these bills to be passed again and signed into law by a Democratic Governor. (Youngkin was wrong, of course, that the vast majority of these bills were “bad for Virginia.” And yes, Gov. Spanberger should – and presumably will – sign the vast majority of them into law.)
For better or worse, Virginia is about to change…..big time. (Definitely for the better, at least with regard to legislation passed by the General Assembly and signed into law by Gov. Spanberger; but at the same time, WORSE because of the insanity coming out of the Trump administration and Republican-controlled Congress. The question is, will the good coming from the former be outweighed by the – very – bad coming from Republican-controlled Washington, DC?)
UPDATE: Forgot to mention, but obviously we really need major campaign finance reform legislation. Chances of getting that? Probably not high, unfortunately…
