See below for some of the best and worst polls and predictions for the 2025 VA elections.
Governor’s race: Spanberger by 14.5 points (final polls for each outfit)
- YouGov: Spanberger +15 (nailed it)
- StateNavigate: Spanberger +13 (missed by 1.5 points)
- Echelon: Spanberger +12 (missed by 2.5 points)
- WaPo/Schar: Spanberger +12 (missed by 2.5 points)
- Emerson College: Spanberger +11 (missed by 3.5 points)
- Roanoke College: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
- Kaplan Strategies: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
- Clarity Campaign Labs: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
- Insider Advantage: Spanberger +10 (missed by 4.5 points)
- AtlasIntel: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
- Suffolk University: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
- Public Policy Polling: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
- Quantus Insights: Spanberger +9 (missed by 5.5 points)
- Research Company: Spanberger +8 (missed by 6.5 points)
- A2 Insights: Spanberger +8 (missed by 6.5 points)
- CNU Wason Center: Spanberger +7 (missed by 7.5 points)
- Trafalgar: Spanberger +7 (missed by 7.5 points)
- VCU: Spanberger +7 (missed by 7.5 points)
- co/efficient: Spanberger +5 (missed by 9.5 points)
- Cygnal: Spanberger +4 (missed by 10.5 points)
Lt. Governor race: Hashmi won by 11 points (final polls for each outfit)
- State Navigate: Hashmi +12 (missed by 1 points)
- Quantus Insights: Hashmi +8 (missed by 3 points)
- A2 Insights: Hashmi +8 (missed by 3 points)
- WaPo/Schar: Hashmi +7 (missed by 4 points)
- Kaplan Strategies: Hashmi +7 (missed by 4 points)
- AtlasIntel: Hashmi +6 (missed by 5 points)
- co/efficient: Hashmi +5 (missed by 6 points)
- Quantus Insights: Hashmi +4 (missed by 7 points)
- Clarity Campaign Labs: Hashmi +4 (missed by 7 points)
- Echelon: Hashmi +3 (missed by 8 points)
- Trafalgar: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
- SoCal Strategies: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
- Roanoke College: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
- CNU/Wason: Hashmi +2 (missed by 9 points)
- VCU: Hashmi +1 (missed by 10 points)
- Suffolk University: Tied (missed by 11 points)
Attorney General race: Jones won by 6 points (final polls for each outfit)
- State Navigate: Jones +3 (missed by 3 points)
- Insider Advantage: Jones +2 (missed by 4 points)
- Emerson College: Jones +2 (missed by 4 points)
- Quantus Insights: Tied (missed by 6 points)
- Trafalgar: Tied (missed by 6 points)
- WaPo/Schar: Tied (missed by 6 points)
- Kaplan Strategies: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
- A2 Insights: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
- Atlas Intel: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
- CNU/Wason: Miyares +1 (missed by 7 points)
- SoCal Strategies: Miyares +2 (missed by 8 points)
- VCU: Miyares +3 (missed by 9 points)
- Echelon: Miyares +3 (missed by 9 points)
- Suffolk University: Miyares +4 (missed by 10 points)
- Quantus Insights: Miyares +7 (missed by 13 points)
- Roanoke College: Miyares +8 (missed by 14 points)
PREDICTIONS (roughly in descending order of accuracy; I’ll add more as I see them)
- Maryland Politico: “I’m gonna be bold in my final #Virginia predictions. Here we go: Governor: Spanberger +11 Lt. Governor: Hashmi +9 Attorney General: Jones +4 House of Delegates: D’s gain 12 seats.”
- DC Cyclone: Spanberger +14, Hashmi +8, Jones +4, HoD 61 Dems
- Ben Tribbett: Predicted a blue wave, Dems with their biggest margin for governor in modern VA history
- Uncrewed: Predicted 61 Democratic seats in the House of Delegates
- Chaz Nuttycombe/State Navigate: Spanberger +11.2, Hashmi +6.4, Jones +2.1, HoD Dems 60-40
- Matt Walton: Spanberger 55.4%, Hashmi 52.5%, Jones 51.25%, HoD Dems win 61 seats
- The Political HQ: Spanberger +11, Hashmi +7, Jones +2, HoD 60 Democratic seats
- Election Enjoyer: Spanberger +10.1, Jones +0.4
- Ryan Brune: Spanberger +11, Hashmi +7, Miyares +3, HoD Dems win 58
- Joe Szymanski (R): Predicted Spanberger by 9-12, Hashmi as Safe D, “I do think Jason Miyares survives tomorrow,” and 60 Democratic seats in the House of Delegates
- PredictIt: Had Spanberger as the overwhelming favor pretty much the entire election; had Jones as the strong favorite for much of the race, until the texting scandal, then had Miyares as the favorite, then it swung back to Jones in the last few days; had Hashmi as the strong favorite pretty much the whole way.
- Polymarket: Had Spanberger as the overwhelming favor pretty much the entire election; had Jones as the strong favorite for much of the race, until the texting scandal, then had Miyares as the favorite, then it swung back to Jones in the last few days; had Hashmi as the strong favorite pretty much the whole way.
- Kalshi: Had Spanberger as the overwhelming favor pretty much the entire election; had Jones as the strong favorite for much of the race, until the texting scandal, then had Miyares as the favorite, then it swung back to Jones in the last few days; had Hashmi as the strong favorite pretty much the whole way.
- John Fredericks’ “Virginia Gang”: Former VA State Senator Siobhan Dunnavant predicted a split ticket (Spanberger/Reid/Miyares?); Fredericks thought Reid would win, said it felt “better than Youngkin [2021] out there”; former VA Sen. Jill Vogel said it felt like Youngkin 2021, the trend moving towards Republicans, the “worst case” for Republicans was a “split ticket,” saw no scenario in which Jay Jones wins; VA GOP Chair Mark Peake said “the momentum just seems to be on our side,” Rs would win on Tuesday and take back the HoD; former VA Sen. Joe Morrissey predicted Spanberger would win, Miyares would win AG, possible for Reid to win if Spanberger didn’t win by more than 6, 7 points…
- Former Del. Tim Anderson: Predicted the VA GOP would take the House of Delegates, Terry Kilgore would be Speaker (LOL!)
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