With the new year now having arrived, it’s definitely time to start thinking about the 2026 Virginia General Assembly, which is set to kick off in just 13 days (on January 14). Presumably one of the first items on the agenda for Democrats – who will have a massive majority in the House of Delegates, along with a narrow (21-19) majority in the State Senate – undoubtedly will be passage of a new constitutional amendment on redistricting. On this subect, as Speaker Don Scott said earlier this month:
“We have a bully [Trump], and he has a bully pulpit, and he’s bullying folks in these states” – including “punch[ing] back” (we have an “obligation” to do so). Speaker Scott said a 10-1 map is “not out of the realm…but we’re going to take a look at it.” “We have to push back.” “Ultimately, the voters will decide.” “We cannot allow folks to rig the system.” “Maybe two [House Republicans from Virginia] will survive.”
Speaker Scott added that Democrats were already “working with some map drawers.” Also, at Del. Marcus Simon’s “Latkepalooza” event on December 14, Speaker Scott said:
- “We need to show the rest of the country, show the rest of the world that it is ok, that you’re going to be ok when you stand up to a tyrant. You’re going to be ok when you stand up to a bully. I don’t believe that you just sit there and get pummeled when a bully’s fighting you. All I know is you got to punch back.”
- “That’s why we’re going to do the redistricting amendment here in the Commonwealth of Virginia. If we can 10-1 this thing, we’ll 10-1 this thing…We’re going to fight back. We’re going to level the playing field to make sure that we we still have a voice in this democracy…”
Also, check out what Del. Marcus Simon had to say on this topic back on November 20, including:
“Delegate Willlet was the patron of the resolution. I imagine he’ll introduce a new resolution that’ll get on the docket, you know, the first week of session. We can dispatch resolutions pretty quickly in the House…The Senate can do it in about a week. So, you know, we can get that piece moved through. It’ll be one of the very first things that we do that actually, you know, makes its way because it doesn’t have to go to committee and so forth. So that can come through in and out of the Senate and the House pretty quickly so that we can start the 90-day clock for a referendum. There’s some other work to do, right? There’s other things we’ll have to do. We’ll have to move the dates of primaries because primaries are supposed to happen in the third week of June. Well, if people don’t know what the districts are, you know, we have this referendum in April and people, you know, in Many don’t even know what the districts are, how are they supposed to file to run for for Congress and so forth. So probably end up pushing back filing deadlines.”
So that’s a lot of what the House of Delegates Democrats’ leadership is thinking. How about the State Senate Democrats? For starters, we definitely know how Senate President Pro Tem Louise Lucas is thinking, because she’s tweeted many times (e.g., see here) about her strong preference for a 10 Democrats-1 Republican map (note: currently, we’re at 6D-5R, although Abigail Spanberger won two of those Republican-held seats, VA01 and VA02, in the gubernatorial election). As for VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell, he said in early December that Virginia redistricting efforts were “full steam ahead.” Sen. Surovell also said, in early November: “Listen, there’s two seats…that are pretty obviously in play. And after that, you know, it probably gets pretty hard, but it’s, you know, anything’s possible…I actually have not had that specific of a conversation [with Dems in Washington].”
In sum, the state of play right now is that Virginia General Assembly Democrats are planning to take up the new redistricting amendment pretty much right away when the legislature convenes on January 14. And almost certainly, the amendment will pass both chambers (with all Democrats voting yes, all Republicans voting no). The question is, will Democrats also unveil possible maps at that point, or will they wait until if and when the amendment is approved by voters in the spring? Along those lines, would unveiling maps PRIOR to Virginians voting on the amendment: a) be the right thing to do; b) make it more or less likely for the amendment to pass? Along those lines, let’s look at some possible 9D-2R and 10D-1R maps that have been floating around, been shared by Sen. Louise Lucas, etc.
First, here are some examples of 9D-2R maps that have been shared on social media.
Now, here are some 10D-1R maps shared (including by VA Senate President Pro Tem Louise Lucas) on social media.
Clearly, as you can see from the sample maps, a 10D-1R map would gain Democrats the most seats (+4 Democratic seats from 6D-5R now), but would also be highly “gerrymandered.” For instance, in some of the 10D-1R maps, (bright-blue) North Arlington ends up in a district along with much of the (deep-red) Shenandoah Valley. And we could also end up with a 10D-1R map in which VA11 stretches from (blue) Falls Church to the (red) West Virginia border. As for the 9D-2R maps, they would gain Democrats “only” three seats (VA01, VA02, VA05), but could be drawn in a much more compact, less-“gerrymandered” way. This could matter, potentially, both for legal challenges as well as for the maps’ appeal (or not) to voters. For instance, would people currently represented by Don Beyer in VA08 not be thrilled to be lumped into a district with the Shenandoah Valley, and no longer with Beyer as their Congressman? Or would they not care so much about that, at least relative to the importance of fighting back against Trump’s blatant, heavy-handed attempts to rig the maps nationally in favor of House Republicans? Overall, would a 10D-1R map be less likely to pass muster with voters than a 9D-2R map, or does it not really matter at this point? I’d guess that a 9D-2R map might be somewhat “safer” in terms of likely passage by voters, but maybe not? Maybe the amendment would pass either way? I haven’t seen any polling, so it’s really hard to know…
So what do you think? If you were in Virginia Democratic leadership, would you be pushing right now for a 10D-1R or 9D-2R map? And would you unveil those maps prior to voters heading to the polls next spring to vote on the constitutional amendment, or even prior to the General Assembly voting in a couple weeks? Tough calls.
