The political media, of course, wants the redistricting referendum YES side to lose, or for it to be super close, becaue that’s how those folks roll of course. And they’re rolling out story after story, tweet after tweet, along those lines. But is that where we’re actually at right now, with 26 days until election day on April 21? Well…see below and judge for yourself, but the short answer is somewhere between “sure doesn’t seem like that’s where we’re at” and “nope, that’s not where we’re at.” LOL
First, check out the new modeling estimate from L2 Political, and compare/contrast to L2’s estimate on 10/10/25, a few weeks before the 11/4/25 election, which Democrats won in a landslide (Spanberger by 15+ points; +13 Dems in the House of Delegates; etc.).
- L2’s current estimate: 57%D-39%R (D+18 points)
- L2’s estimate on 10/10/25: 56.5%D-39.1%R (D+17.4 points)
In short, L2’s current estimate is almost identical to its 10/10/25 estimate in the Virginia governor’s election, which Democrats won by 15 points. So…not predicting that the “YES” side will win by 15 points, but it certainly seems encouraging!
Next, check out what VA Speaker Don Scott had to say yesterday:
“If you look at our voter scores right now, the last cycle in 2025 at the same point of early voting, we were about 60-40 in voter profiles. Right now, it’s like 59-41,” Scott said. “We’re good. I feel very good about this election.”
So that estimate (59%-41%) lines up very closely with L2’s 57%-39% current estimate (both are YES +18). Again, encouraging.
Now, for what it’s worth, check out the “poll” by the far-right Heritage Foundation (authors of the infamous “Project 2025”) yesterday. And yes, as Geoffrey Skelley explains, “When the poll essentially asked the ballot question…respondents backed the amendment 45-36.” So that’s YES +9 in a far-right “poll,” or whatever you want to call it…
Finally, again for what it’s worth, check out the prediction markets’ current prices: 85% for YES on PredictIt, 78% for YES on Kalshi, 76% for YES on Polymarket. Again, encouraging. But having said all that, of course it should go without saying that none of us should get overeconfident or complacent in any way leading up to 4/21; to the contrary, we should make sure we remind everyone we know to vote YES on the amendment and take nothing for granted until the votes have been counted and (hopefully) we’ve won this thing. Meanwhile, the NO folks are going to keep lying, distorting, mischaracterizing, etc, so we need to be aware of that as well – and counter it with the facts.
P.S. For the latest statistics on early voting, see VPAP…
