With Three New Polls Showing Kamala Harris Leading in Virginia by Wide Margins (8, 10, 13 points), FiveThirtyEight Now Has Harris with an 84% Chance of Winning Here

With early voting in Virginia starting in just 9 days (on 9/20), we’ve now gotten three Virginia polls in September – WaPo/Schar School, Morning Consult and VCU. The results of those polls are as follows:

• WaPo/Schar: “Harris draws support from 50 percent of likely Virginia voters compared to 42 percent choosing the former president and 2 percent supporting third-party candidates.” (Harris + 8 points)
• Morning Consult: Harris 52%-Trump 42% (Harris +10 points)
• VCU: Harris 49%-Trump 36% among registered voters (Harris +13 points); Harris 46%-Trump 36% among likely voters (Harris +10 points)

So with those polls factored in, Trump’s now down to just a 16% chance of winning Virginia, per FiveThirtyEight’s model, down from a 20% chance as of September 1. So clearly,we’re headed in the right direction. Also clearly, the Harris-Walz campaign is MASSIVELY outworking/outhustling Trump-Vance here in the Commonwealth, with at least one recent report that Trump’s campaign “has diverted resources away from Minnesota, Virginia and New Hampshire – states Trump was boasting he could win while Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate – to focus instead on a small number of battleground states.” Per that article:

“In Virginia – the site of Vance’s first solo rally after being appointed to the ticket – Trump has not staged a rally for six weeks and the campaign has stopped citing memos claiming it can flip the state. Its apparent slide down the priority list is a far cry from 28 June, when the former president staged a rally in Chesapeake a day after his ultimately race-changing debate with Biden.”

Also, somewhat anecdotally, it seems like Democrats have a lot more enthusiasm/energy right now in Virginia, as evidenced by large, enthusiastic Democratic turnout at events across Virginia, even in red areas like Buena Vista.

So that’s all good news, of course. But as always, let’s take nothing for granted. Instead, let’s make sure we: a) “run through the tape” and make absolutely sure we do indeed win this thing!; and b) do so by a HUGE margin, which will help downballot races (e.g., replacing Jen Kiggans with Missy Cotter Smasal).