A brand-new poll of Virginia likely voters, courtesy of CNU’s Wason Center for Civic Leadership (note: this is a high-quality poll, unlike many of the low-quality/trash polls floating around out there), has great news for Kamala Harris and Tim Kaine:
- Harris leads Trump “by 11 points, 52% to 41% among Virginia likely voters; 4% remain undecided, while 3% say they will vote for someone else.”
- “Harris’ lead over Trump is built on an advantage among women (+20), Independents (+15), Black voters (+54) and college educated voters (+20); Trump receives support from Republican voters (94%), with a very narrow lead among white voters (48% to 47%).”
- “In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican Hung Cao by 20 pints among Virginia likely voters, 55% to 35%; 8% say they are undecided and 2% say they will vote for someone else.”
- “Virginia likely voters say Harris would do a better job than Trump handling an array of policy issues with a narrow lead on inflation and the economy (49% to 48%), a moderate advantage on thr eats to democracy (54% to 40%) and a large advantage on abortion (60% to 32%), racial inequality (61% to 31%) and climate change (61% to 29%); Trump has a narrow advantage over Harris on handling immigration (49% to 48%).”
- “Virginia likely voters are fairly enthusiastic to vote in the elections with 82% indicating they are either very enthusiastic (64%) or somewhat enthusiastic (18%). Democratic voters have an enthusiasm advantage with 75% indicating they are very enthusiastic compared to 68% of Republicans and 46% of Independents.”
- “While most Virginia likely voters surveyed have yet to cast their ballots, a higher percentage of Democrats say they have voted when compared to Republicans and Independents (22% to 11% to 9%). In past elections Democrats have been more likely to early vote than Republicans, though Governor Youngkin made a push in the 2022 General Assembly elections for Republicans to vote early.”
- “Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris has a +9 favorability rating (51% to 42%) with 8% indicating they have no opinion/don’t know. President Trump is underwater with a -22 favorability rating (36% to 58%); 6% say no opinion/don’t know.”
- Harris’ running-mate Governor Tim Walz has a +12 favorability rating (47% to 35%), with 19% indicating no opinion/don’t know. Trump’s running mate Senator J.D. Vance has a –16 favorability rating at 34 to 50% with 16% indicating no opinion/don’t know.”
- “Incumbent Senator Tim Kaine has a +23 favorability rating (53% to 30%) with 17% saying no opinion/don’t know. Republican candidate Hung Cao has an even favorability rating (23% to 23%); however, he is less well known with a majority of likely voters indicating no opinion/don’t know (54%).”
By the way, if Harris really IS up 11 points in Virginia, that bodes well nationally, as Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020, so that’s actually a point better than four years ago. Also note that Biden won nationally by 4.5 points in 2020, so Virginia was 5 1/2 points “bluer” than the rest of the country. So an 11-point Harris lead in Virginia would imply a 5 or 6-point Harris lead nationally (although this is just one poll and you can’t necessarily translate one state into national results, although there clearly are statistical correlations). An 11-point Harris win in Virginia should also be great news for Suhas Subramanyam in VA10, Eugene Vindman in VA07 and hopefully Missy Cotter Smasal in VA02. But as always, take nothing for granted, “run through the tape,” vote early, volunteer, etc. – and hopefully we’ll have something(s) to celebrate on 11/5-11/6!
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