by Sam Shirazi
On Tuesday, Virginia Democrats got some much needed good news, as they held SD32 and HD26 in eastern Loudoun County to maintain their narrow (21-19 in the State Senate, 51-49 in the House of Delegates) majorities in the Virginia General Assembly. Democrats also did better than expected in the GOP-held, “red” SD10 in Central Virginia.
It’s hard to make big conclusions based on these special elections, especially with a snowstorm perhaps leading to lower Election Day turnout. At the same time, these elections can offer some clues about Virginia elections going forward.
Loudoun Looking Up for Democrats
Loudoun County was one of the first indications as November 2024 election results started coming in that Democrats were going to have a rough night. In 2020, President Biden won Loudoun by 25%, but Vice President Harris only won it by 16% in 2024.
This big swing led to speculation that the special elections for State Senate and House of Delegates could be close, nd Governor Youngkin certainly made an effort to flip the seats red. That ultimately did not happen, with Democrats doing about 1-2% better in the special elections than Harris did in those districts in November 2024.
That is obviously good news for Democrats, especially as they tend to do worse in Virginia state elections compared to federal ones. At the same time, Democrats are still far from their 2020 high point in Loudoun County, and it’s clear that there is more work to do.
The Democrats elected in the special elections – Kannan Srinivasan for State Sente and JJ Singh for House of Delegates – both come from the growing Indian-American community in Loudoun. They ran campaigns focused on issues voters cared about and didn’t get bogged down by GOP attacks against them. Their campaigns provide a model for how Democrats can continue to do well in Loudoun and start building up their margins again in this critical county.
Central Virginia Opportunities
While Democratic nominee Jack Trammell still lost by nearly 18% in SD10, this is actually a significant improvement from the 27% loss that Harris experienced in the district in November. Most of Trammell’s gains came in the more suburban parts of the district along I-64.
Trammell was able to flip Fluvanna County blue, in the suburbs of Charlottesville, winning it by almost 13%, in a county that Trump won by 6%. Similarly, Trammell was able to keep both Goochland and the Hanover portion of the district close in the Richmond suburbs, losing both by around 6%. These are areas where Trump won by almost 20% just two months ago.
No doubt the snowstorm played a role and may have lowered GOP election day turnout. However, Central Virginia was one of the few places that Harris did relatively well, even doing better in Goochland in 2024 than Biden did in 2020.
As Northern Virginia seems to have reached its peak “blueness,” there is still plenty of room for Democrats to grow in Central Virginia. The suburbs along I-64 from Staunton in the west to Williamsburg in the east all are areas where Democrats can continue to expect gains in coming years.
The Party of Special Elections Now
It used to be that Democrats consistently struggled in Virginia special elections, famously almost losing a deep-blue seat in Alexandria in 2009. That was back when Democrats were more the party of low-propensity voters, that is voters who were unlikely to show up in off-year and special elections (but WERE likely to show up in presidential elections).
However, Trump’s election win was fueled by his strength with low-propensity voters, who helped power the GOP to victory, but who may not always show up for them. This dynamic might be part of the reason Democrats are now the party more likely to do well in special elections.
Virginia Democrats have been doing well in special elections going back to Aaron Rouse’s 2023 win in the special election to replace Rep. Jen Kiggans in the State Senate. The permanent absentee list also helps give Democrats an edge, as it is overwhelmingly Democrats on this opt-in list to receive a ballot in the mail every election.
Clues for November
The day after the November election, it was clear that these special elections would happen, as Suhas Subramanyam (D) and John McGuire (R) were elected to Congress (in VA10 and VA05, respectively). Given the election results, it seemed likely that SD26 in eastern Loudoun would be a closer race than SD10 in central Virginia.
But when the results came in, Democrats won the eastern Loudoun race by almost 23%, while they lost the central Virginia race by less than 18%. This shows that every election is unique and that the dynamics of each race must be taken into account.
So yes, things look bleak for Democrats right now after suffering a tough election loss in November, and Trump looking more popular than ever. Yet Virginia elections tend to swing against the party in power in Washington, giving Democrats an opportunity to rebuild in 2025.
The bottom line? Nothing is certain and Democrats should not take for granted that they are entitled to win in Virginia in 2025 because Trump will be in the White House. At the same time, it is important to remember that it will not be November 2024 forever, and voters have a tendency to move on from the last election.
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