Political Winners and Losers: Virginia Redistricting Referendum April 2026

Here are a few “winners” and “losers” that I believe are worth highlighting from Tuesday’s redistricting referendum, which the YES campaign won by around 3 points. Note that this list isn’t even close to comprehensive – nor is it intended to be (in part because it could go on for days…and at some point, enough is enough, lol!) – so please add “winners” and “losers” of your own in the comments section. By the way, it’s important to point out that you can be a “winner” even if you’re a right-wing Republican (e.g., McDonnell and Cuccinelli in 2009 were huge “winners,” even though they completely suck!) or whatever, and that you can be a “loser” even if you’re my favorite Democrat in the world, because in this context “winner” and “loser” is all about whether someone “won” or “lost” politically in this election cycle, not whether that makes me happy or not or whether it’s normatively a “good” or “bad” thing, per se.  With that…on to the “Winners”/”Mixed”/”Losers” from the redistricting referendum.

Winners

1. Sen. Louise Lucas: She was absolutely determined to get a 10D-1R map, campaigned relentlessly for it (even when many others were skeptical or hostile), and in the end, got that 10D-1R map last night.  As Sen. Lucas put it, in her own inimitable, badass way, “You all started it, and we f—ing finished it”! Haha, exactly. 🙂
2. VA Speaker Don Scott: Whatever his initial thoughts on the wisdom of a 10D-1R map vs. a 9D-2R map, Speaker Scott got on board big time, shepherded the amendment to passage through the House of Delegates, then campaigned hard for the 10D-1R map’s passage. Nice job!
3. VA Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell: Helped guide the amendment through the State Senate, avoiding landmines/traps laid by Republicans, as well as potential obstacles within his own caucus, such as State Senator Schuyler VanValkenburg, who had been one of the main proponents of the original, “bipartisan” (in air quotes, because it was designed to fail, almost inevitably) redistricting amendment back in 2020. Good work.
4. The YES campaign (Kéren Charles Dongo et al): Impressive job in a very short period of time, especially given the fact that this was a pretty “hard sell,” given that Republicans were pretty much guaranteed to be nearly 100% in opposition, Independents pretty much guaranteed to be skeptical at best, and many/most Democrats strong opponents of partisan gerrymandering. So what the YES campaign had to do was thread the needle, revving up the Democratic base to push back against Trump’s assault on our democracy, emphasizing that this was a TEMPORARY measure (we will revert back to the bipartisan redistricting commission after the next Census), etc. And they did just that, with the help of tens of millions of $$ in assistance, but also with their own skill, sweat, etc. Congratulations.
5. Democracy: The bottom line of this entire effort was clear – Democrats didn’t *want* to do this at all, never *would* have done it, but felt (correctly) that they HAD TO do it in order to defend our democracy against Trump’s clear, egregious, dangerous attempts to rig the US House maps in his favor.  As for Republicans who refused to admit this fact, they were either being willfully disingenous, operating in bad faith, and/or oblivious, in a cult, etc. Anyway, last night democracy won, autocracy lost, and we can all breathe a tiny bit easier…for the moment, as Trump’s’MAGA’s vicious assault on democracy VERY MUCH continues unabated.
6. Hakeem Jeffries/national Democrats: As one leading Virginia Democrat put it to me this morning, “50M in and was with VA every step of way.” Nice.  Also, of course, with fair maps heading into November, and given Trump’s miserable approval ratings, it’s highly likely that with free-and-fair elections, there will be a “blue wave” or even “blue tsunami” this fall, among other things sweeping Hakeem Jeffries into power as the next Speaker of the House, replacing Mike Johnson, the worst Speaker in U.S. history – by far, and it’s not even an arguable proposition, as he’s betrayed his oath, ceded all power of his coequal branch to Trump, etc.!  So obviously, a Speaker Jeffries will be a MASSIVE upgrade from that, with the U.S. House returning to its constitutionally prescribed role as a check and balance on this unhinged, out-of-control president. And hopefully, we’ll get just that in November. Also, thanks to Hakeem Jeffries for coming to Virginia and campaigning for the amendment; much appreciated!
7. Former Rep. Tom Perriello: With passage a new U.S. House map for Virginia, former Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA05) is highly likely to be *future* Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA06), starting in January 2027.  That is, if he can win the Democratic nomination (which seems highly likely), then defeat the odious Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06) in November. But with these new maps (see below), and given a likely “blue wave” political environment this fall, it’s highly likely  that Perriello will make his return to the US House in a bit over eight months.
8. Former Rep. Elaine Luria:  Similar to Tom Perriello, former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-VA02) is now highly likely to be back in the U.S. House starting in January 2027, given that VA02 will now be a Harris +4.7 points district, and also given the likely “blue wave” political environment this November. Of course, Luria first has to win the Democratic nomination in VA02, but that’s pretty much a done deal at this point.
9. Former President Barack Obama: He pushed hard for Virginia to pass the redistricting amendment, and despite a tidal wave of right-wing disinformation about his actual position on this, the amendment won. So thanks to Barack Obama for all he did on this; we couldn’t have done it without him!
10. Others who helped pass the amendment: A very short list includes Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, former AG Eric Holder, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, Adam Mockler, Politics Girl, JoJoFromJerz, Ryan Geddie, Tevin Davis, David Pakman, Suzanne Lambert, Elizabeth Booker Houston, Brian Tyler Cohen, Rep. James Walkinshaw, Rep. Eugene Vindman, Rep. Don Beyer, Rep. Jennifer McClellan, Rep. Bobby Scott, Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, Sen. Mark Warner, Sen. Tim Kaine, LG Ghazala Hashmi, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, etc, etc. Oh, and also a shoutout to former Redistricting Commission citizens member James Abrenio, a strong opponent of partisan gerrymandering who, nonetheless, went all out to pass the amendment (including being in TV ads), because he understood the broader picture for the country and for our democracy, rule of law, etc. as a whole. Thanks!
11. Virginia grassroots: As a leading VA Democrat put it to me this morning, “they really stepped up given the quickness of race; county committees and ‘groups’ really made a huge difference.” Good stuff.
12. Rural residents: One of the biggest of the “NO” campaign’s big lies was that new districts would “disenfranchise rural voters.” In fact, the exact opposite is the case, as rural voters in most of Virginia will see massive UPGRADES in their representation in the U.S. House. For instance, putting ideology and partisanship aside, would you rather have someone who will fight tenaciously for their district, as Tom Perriello will do in VA06 if he’s elected, or someone who doesn’t do JACK SHIT to help people in their district, or even actively HARMS them, as Rep. Ben Cline (R-VA06) has been doing for years? Or how about replacing the horrendously bad, worse-than-worthless John McGuire in Va05 with a Democrat who will actually fight for them?  Or swapping godawful Rob Wittman in VA01 for Eugene Vindman? All huge upgrades, far from “disenfrachising” people. Also, of course, this is all just temporary, so if people in those rural areas are unhappy with Tom Perriello, Eugene Vindman, etc., in 2032 they can replace them with right-wing Republicans who harm their own interests. That will be their call after the next Census; in the meantime, they wil benefit from having real, serious representation in the U.S. House for a change!

Mixed

1. Elections Polls/Prognosticators: In the end, it looks like the amendment will pass by 3-4 points. So how did the polls and prognosticators do? As for the polls, State Navigate had it winning by 6 points (a few points higher than it actually won by), the WaPo/Schar School poll had it winning by 5 points (a point or two higher than it will probably end up), and an older Roanoke College poll had it losing by 8 points (yes, Roanoke College polling is godawful…has been godawful for years and shouldn’t be taken seriously). Meanwhile, “prediction”/betting markets had the amendment leading for weeks, the bigger question being the margin of victory (over at Polymarket, the amendment winning by 3-4 points led for much of the past few weeks, and that pretty much nailed it).
2. Gov. Abigail Spanberger: She clearly had mixed feelings about the amendment, and it’s quite possible that this entire thing knocked her off her desire to stay 100% focused on “affordability” and the rest of her agenda (possibly contributing to the sharp drop in her approval ratings), but in the end, as she put it, her face was on millions of dollars in ads for the amendment (as well as against, including some egregious generative AI crap, which should be illegal), and the amendment won. So…mixed bag, I guess, although “a win’s a win” (and if the amendment had lost, Spanberger would have gotten a bunch of blame, fairly or unfairly).
3. Winsome Earle-Sears: I’m throwing her name in here mostly to be snarky, but the fact is, it’s striking that the 2025 VA GOP gubernatorial nominee was completely invisible in this campaign. What’s going on here? Did she not oppose the amendment, did she just decide she’s had it with politics, was she persona non grata by Republicans, or what???
4. Jason Miyares: Having lost his 2025 reelection campaign and being out of a job – but wanting badly to make a comeback, presumably in 2029 for governor – Miyares was VERY active in opposing the amendment…and he lost. On the other hand, he got himself back out there, “back on the horse” so to speak, and presumably he’ll gain some goodwill from Republican voters for doing so…
5. Glenn Youngkin: After seeing his endorsed candidates get wiped out in November 2025, Youngkin also got back out there, campaigned hard for this, and lost. On the other hand, just as with Miyares, at least Republican voters saw him campaigning hard, donating money, etc., so at the minimum you’d think they wouldn’t be angry at Youngkin going forward.
6. Democratic U.S. House incumbents in districts that will change significantly:  Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-VA07), Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA08), Rep. Suhas Subramanyam (D-VA10) and Rep. James Walkinshaw (D-VA11) all are in districts that will change significantly with the redistricting amendment having passed. So that will mean they’ll have to spend a lot of time, energy, money, etc, introducing themselves to new voters, as well as losing some of the people who voted for them previously. That’s got to be somewhat frustrating. On the other hand, all of them should be fine in their new districts, so not a big worry in that regard. Still, it’s change, in the “who moved my cheese?” sense, and that can be unsettling. [NOTE: Rep. Bobby Scott (D-VA03) and Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D-VA04) weren’t particularly impacted by new district lines.]
7. Rep. Morgan Griffith (R-VA09): On the one hand, already deep-red VA09 was drawn to be *even more red*, so Griffith’s 100% safe in that regard. On the other hand, could he face a Republican primary, given that there’s a game of musical chairs going on with some of his Republican colleagues, like Ben Cline and John McGuire? Something to keep an eye on.

Losers

1. Donald Trump: Every time this guy does a “tele-rally” before a Virginia vote, it seems like he loses. And yet again, he did a “tele-rally” the night before the 4/21 vote, and…yep, he lost. LOl.  More substantively, Trump’s efforts to rig the midterm elections in his favor took a major hit last night, and barring intervention by right-wing-activist judges, plus his enemy-turned-buddy Ron DeSantis in Florida, it now looks like Republicans won’t gain any seats at all due to Trump’s malevolent, anti-democracy efforts. Added bonus: the sound of ketchup bottles being thrown against walls in the White House, lol.
2. Reps. Jen Kiggans (R-VA02) and Rob Wittman (R-VA01): In short, they are now almost certain to see their pathetic political careers come to a merciful (for their constituents) end in November, as they’re both now going to be in essentially unwinnable districts for them in a “blue” political environment, and likely against very strong opponents to boot. Bye bye!
3. Rep. John McGuire (R-VA05): This guy’s now completely “homeless” politically speaking, as his district (VA05) is now almost completely different, plus it’s now solid “blue.” In short, this insurrectionist, MAGA cultist, Trump bootlicker, extremist, etc. can now kiss his pathetic political career goodbye, barring intervention by the courts. Good riddance!
4. VA GOP: After getting wiped out in 2025, they were hoping to start a comeback by winning the redistricting fight, but…nope. So where does that leave the VA GOP? Mostly, in about the same place they were after November 2025 – in bad shape, in an increasingly blue, or at least anti-MAGA/anti-Trump, Virginia.
5. Traditional Media Coverage: Unfortunately, state/local media has been in decline for years, and that includes its coverage – or lack thereof – of local and state politics. That was certainly reflected in its coverage (or lack thereof) of the 2025 Virginia elections, as well as for the redistricting referendum. Just a few of many problems include: superficial and/or “horse race” (who’s up? who’s down?) coverage; relentless false equivalency/”both sidesism”; repeated failure to call out demonstrable, glaring lies by Republicans; misleading reporting of early vote patterns; anti-Democratic/anti-amendment editorials masquerading as “news” articles; etc. And then there’s the Bezos Post’s used-to-be-centrist-turned-right-wingnut editorial page, which was basically frothing at the mouth against the amendment, lying about Gov. Abigail Spanberger, etc, etc. Oh, and how about WJLA/Sinclair “news,” which is essentially just 24/7 right-wing propaganda, an arm of the Republican Party? Just abysmal.
6. VA Supreme Court: The VA Supreme Court’s (mostly conservative) justices clearly don’t want to have to weigh in on this, and probably were hoping in their heart of hearts that voters would reject it, so they could say, “the question is now moot.” But since the referendum passed, albeit by a fairly small margin, the VA Supreme Court now has to do something, even if it’s just to say “the voters have spoken and we’re not going to intervene.” Anyway, we’ll see what they end up doing, but in the end, it’s very hard to imagine that they’d overturn the will of of the electorate, with over 3 million votes having been cast. But they can’t be happy right now, as they REALLY didn’t want to deal with this.
7. Anyone who campaigned for the NO side, particularly anyone who claims to be a Democrat: There’s a long list here, including former Gov. George Allen, former LG Bill Bolling, 2025 VA GOP LG nominee John Reid, etc., etc. Plus, add in one of the main leaders of the 1VA2021 effort to pass the original “bipartisan” redistricting amendment, Brian Cannon. And many others, including far-right-extremist Peter Thiel, who spent millions (kinda like you or me spending a few hundred bucks) on the NO campaign – and lost, thankfully.